Did he really? When? I need to make a note of that so I do not tell him I told you so when it happens. Thanks.
Rice and rock, Just for the record, not that I dispute anyone's theory, how do you guys see us matching up with the Spurs?
You think he's the only one... I think we have been through this one over and over... They are top 5 and so are we. I think we match up real well and can possibly pass them for #4...
Talent and the fact we have a good coach and that the chemistry will not be hard to develop. It seems like they are all together as a team and there is a lot of "togetherness" with this group. Even without YM, I would say they are going to be real goodm and can beat out the Spurs. The Spurs are in decline and over rated in my book. They will be real good, but not as good as in the past. If Duncan missed as many games as Francis, they would be close to lottery...
If I was Rudy T, Ming would be on Duncan and let him shot over Ming. I would crowd Robo and Duncan with Ming, Cato MoT and EG; and if Rose comes in to help, I would have KT right there. Let the Spurs find away to beat us otherwise. This has to be a pride thing. We want to have Duncan and Robo to have doubts like they did against LA last year. We have the ability to be relentless due to the depth. KT has no reason to hold back when he knows that Tmo is ready and able. Same for Ming and MoT with Cato and Eg, respectively. Our guard would not be used to help out on double teams. We have the matchup advantage in the backcourt which we would milk.
Rice & Rock, See I agree with yalls perspective on the surface. But lets look alot deeper than paper matchups. #1 - Youve said we are as good as if not better than SA. And you are justifying that by saying that by comparing players 1-12 on each roster, we come up with the advantage, which Ill go ahead and concede to (as well as the coaching factor). I think theres just one thing we have to STRONGLY consider. That is, the advantage that Duncan has, is exponentially greater than any advantage we have have at any of our positions. Now, one can respond by saying, well Francis's advantage over Parker is also exponentially greater. My response to that, which history has proven, is this: A good big man always beats a good little man (with Jordan being one of the few exceptions....although he never played a great big man in the finals besides Malone). Heres why: Francis is not a player that draws consistant double teams if any. While they are both dominant at their positions, Duncan will consistantly draw a far greater number than Francis will (at this point, we have no one that can handle Duncan one on one, and if we do not double him, hell drop 30-40 points on us before we know what hit us). Perimeter players dont usually get doubled in that same manner or on such a consistant basis One of the few times perimeter players are usually doubled is to get the ball out of their hands so that they can not beat you with their passing skills (a la John Stockton, Magic Johnson, etc.). Unfortunately, Steve is not the type of player that will beat you with his passing skills or court vision, although hopefully, he can develop this down the road, which will make him that much more of a great player. The last two NBA finals, on paper, the Nets and Sixers might have looked better 1-12 (argumentative of course). No one could argue that Kidd and Iverson had a mismatch at their positions. But so did Shaq. They had to double Shaq while the Lakers didnt have to double Iverson or Kidd as consistantly and thats why the Lakers beat them both fairly easily (with all due respect to Kobe and his contributions). If you looked at the Bull-Jazz matchup, the Bulls did something no one else really did, they would double Stock on the perimeter and force him to pass it to someone else who had to get the ball into Malone. Because of that, Malone struggled at times because he wasnt getting the ball where he was used to because Stockton wasnt the one passing it to him. Phil Jackson was smart in that way. He took away the advantage that two great players had over his own players, by doubling the lesser of the two. PURE GENIUS! Thats a direct reflection on why the Jazz beat us in the WC finals that one year. Rudy would not only not double Stockton to get the ball out of his hands, he would leave him wide open. So Stockton killed us with his passing AND shooting. Unbelievable. We made Stockton a better player because of how we played him defensively! Anyway, because Duncan will always be double teamed and Francis wont, that not only makes his advantage greater at his own position, it negates any advantage we have over other individual match ups with their players. The reason for that is, and this will be argued by some of you, is any team would much rather have a quality shooter shooting wide open jumpers than someone like Cuttino shooting jumpers with someone right up in his face. So to sum this up, Duncan's advantage is going to give his teamates higher percentage shots while Francis' advantage won't and this is all because of the double team factor, which hopefully, Yao can create (Maybe Griffin too?). If he does, Im with you guys on how we match up with them. This is why I said Id rather see Yao taking high percentage post shots close to the bucket than 18 foot jumpers or 3 pointer because other teams are not going to double him while hes standing out on the perimeter. This is why the Spurs win, the Lakers win and the Rockets won in the mid 90s. Duncan, Shaq and Hakeem all have become or became great passers out of the double team. And by doing that, they make their teamates better than they normally would be. Great example is Derrick Fisher. If hes not playing on a team with a dominant center and always has a person up on him when he shoots, then hes no better than a backup PG in this league because he cant beat his man one on one. Fisher is great at hitting wide open jumpers, so hes a perfect fit for them (ever notice Horry is almost always wide open when hes hitting his clutch 3s in the playoffs with the Rockets and Lakers?...put Horry on a team with no players who draw doubles and its debatable if he still makes those). Hakeem made players like Maxwell and Kenny Smith better than they were. Those two would be backups on most teams back then. But because they were good at making so many wide open shots, they started for us. Thats one of the huge reasons Hakeem went from being a good player to one of the all time greats. He did the same thing for our team what Isiah, Jordan, Magic and Bird did for theirs by making his teamates aroound him better. If you actually notice, Hakeem's teams never won until he developed his passing skills. He was just as dominant offensively in the late 80s and early 90s as he was in the mid 90s. One of the most important reasons (not the only reason) why the Rockets starting winning and won two titles, was he learned how to make people pay with their double teams by passing the ball back out effectively. In the playoffs, Kevin Garnett will play alot out on the wing than in the post and therefore, doesnt draw as many double teams. I think thats one of the reasons why his team is never successful in the playoffs and why its unlikely that his team will ever beat the Spurs or Lakers or us. If you look at our playoff matchups with Seattle, the reason why we never beat them (until after our two titles), was because of their helter skelter defense. 1) They would harass our guards so much that, at times, we couldnt even get the ball into Hakeem's hands. 2) If they did get Hakeem the ball, they would double him and then cut off his passing lanes which caused turnovers (which Seattle excelled at). I think if we had played Seattle in the 94 Conference finals, we would have had a much tougher time with them than we did with the Jazz. But I do think we would have won. Im suprised more teams dont follow Seattle's defensive outline when playing the Spurs or Lakers. Maybe you just have to have the right personell on the court. I can guarantee you, the same way we say that we could have beat the Bulls in the finals if we had made it there at the same time they did, Seattle is saying the same thing about us. I think its funny how certain theories can transpond from one NBA city to the next. Not that I agree with them. So The point Im trying to make by ramblin on like this is, for us to be legitimate contenders for a title or to beat the Spurs and/or Lakers, Yao will have to become an effective low post scorer who draws consistent double teams. He wont do this by becoming a primarily jump shooting center like. Also, he will have to prove he has the necessary passing skills to get the ball back out to our perimeter shooters if that happens (looks like he already has this skill for sure). Last, Rudy will have to surround him with perimeter shooters, whether its Cuttino, Nachbar, Morris or whoever, who will have to prove they can hit the open jumper consistantly (I think we already have the personnel to do that too). Ive never said we arent capable of being as good as or better than SA (believe me, im rooting for it), but given what we have going into the season and all the question marks, especially with Yao, I dont think we match up favorably with them or any other team with a great big man for the time being (until Yao develops/adjusts). Can we agree that Duncan is no doubt in a better position to make the other matchups around him that yall consider even, work more in his favor than Francis can? The big key is Yao. Both he and Steve will have to make their teamates around them better. His development will have to be the thing that leads us to the promise land. The other pieces are in place and waiting on his development. It will be exciting to watch the results.
That's a freakin' novel... 1) On paper we are a better team 1-12 2) Duncan will get his, but it won't overcome our 1-8 rotation 3) Yao Ming will help nullify the SA centers, not Duncan so much 4) Our MT, EG, KT rotation should be used to run Duncan down on both ends. He'll still score, but we can wear him down some...
Rice, Thats my point. I dont think what Yao does will affect Duncan unless hes coming in from the weakside to help contest his shot. If Yao guards Duncan one on one, or doubles him as soon as he gets the ball, hes asking for foul trouble. I agree that we can wear down Duncan. But evenly if he only scored 15 points, he can still beat us with his passing more so than we can with ours. If hes killing us with his passing by getting the ball to the open man on a consistant basis, and they get wide open shots all game long, then they have a better chance at beating us cause at this point in time, we dont have that capability to get as many wide open shots. In 95, there were many teams that may have been better than us, 1-12, including Orlando. But we beat them all because of how our offense was structured. Whatever advantage those teams had, 1-12, was negated because Hakeem was able to make his teamates better on the court, and the other teams best player couldnt.
We can beat them with Yao Ming's passing just as well. That is a null. We have more capability that way with Rice, MT, Cat and Francis hitting open shots off YM double teams. Orlando wasn't better 1-12. We beat teams because the team refused to lose and Hakeem was alien...
We are seeing things the same way here. The only difference is, you are assuming Yao will get doubled and I am not. The reason I am not is, there are alot of doubts about Yao's strength and the ability to hold his position. If hes getting pushed off the block by his man and cant get into a position to receive the ball, then hell be sitting out there jacking up 15 footers. He can make those, but people arent going to double him out on the perimeter and if they dont, then his passing skills are not a factor. Just like Duncan's would be if we had someone that could hold their ground one on one or if Duncan decided to jack up 15 footers all day. Orlando was better 1-12 in my eyes. Ill all subjective anyway. We did indeed beat teams, not even including Orlando, that were better than us 1-12.
Now I know why you are so in awe of Duncan, Codell. He shot 54% against us last year. Well you know that % is going down and will be sub 50% like it was for LAC, LAL, IND, GS, and MIN. I am not willing to concede this big matchup advantage. At least not before tomorrow night's game.
He shoots a pretty high % against most. I think those teams you named, which the exception of LAL and GS, have players that can argueably, guard him one on one (he really shots below 50 against GS? wow). Thats kind of my theory. If Griff or KT can step up and prove that they can guard him one on one, think I think our 1-12 advantage holds alot more weight. Thats a big if though. If they cant, Yao will have to do the same for our team as Duncan does for his team in order for us to truley maximize that 1-12 advantage we have.
This is getting really sad. Last year it was the Rockets who had the ill fated luck to get the "injury bug" so early in the season. This time its teams like the Clippers, Lakers (Shaq out for a bit,) the Knicks (suck anyways though,) and now Sac Town? If these teams are affected in anyway by their injuries, it should help us that much more. Horray to Injuries!!!???...
Codell, the SF matchup is distinctly Rockets. Despite his defense Bowen is a weak link. YOu know we can post him all day no matter who is in the game for us. I would be perfectly honest with you. The reason why I am not surprised about anything, especially anything to do with our existing players is because I was busy this offseason. I have looked at about twenty of our games from last year. That is why Tmo, Cato and KT did not surprise me, because in those games you at least get a glimpse of what a player is capable of and it would be simply a question of them putting it together. The thing about Cato is that when he plays well, the team was literally unstoppable. I know HP thinks he holds back the team but I see it differently. It is said that assumptions are being made. It is not an assumption that we will shut teams down. It is not an assumption that we will average 100+ points. It is not an assumption that we will be in the top 6 in def fg %. It is not an assumption that all the premier PF's in the West will struggle against us, from Wallace to Duncan to Webber to Malone. Why? Because they would never have faced a frontline like that. In addition to having to contend with EG and MoT, there will always be a Ming lending support. It is not like the Antonio Davis/Clark combo, in Toronto, had Ming to lend support. They has Montross. Of course in the case of Webber we can also let him deal with Ming directly while Cato is on Vlade. Take it from me the next time you are in a candy store, Rudy T might just be there.
But you are basing this on our frontlines on potential, so in that, they are assumptions. Im basing my opinion on what we know for sure. If they fulfill that potential, then I will concede and agree. And I know you will be dying to say that you told me so. Dont be a poor winner though.
