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Beverley's defense is a fraud

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Harden's beard, Nov 30, 2016.

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Is Beverley's defense overrated?

  1. Yes

  2. No

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title

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    Just imagine how large our margin would have been if we had Ennis and Brown playing instead of Bev! Probably would have won by triple digits.
     
  2. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    I think so, perimeter defense was good. Ariza was on point despite being mediocre on offense. Even Ryno looked like he was trying. Gordon is a bit more of a turnstile than Harden but neither were calamitous last night.

    Also, Klay Thompson is trash.
     
  3. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    lol some of these guys are mighty quiet today. a loss here and their spamming the boards with their agendas. win patiently waits for the next loss in hiding :rolleyes:
     
    MajorSeanBond likes this.
  4. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    Seriously - not sure how they consider themselves Rockets fans when they are rooting against our guys.
     
  5. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    This is Clustering Illusion. And the stats are already proving it. Rockets were a 102 DRtg against GSW, who is a 118 ORtg at Home.

    Post-Bev return (8 games) : 108.6 DRtg
    Adjusted DRtg will make that number even better.

    This is why you remove outliers then put them back in and compare results. To avoid your Confirmation Bias caused by Clustering Illusion. The clustering of 7 games is disappearing, as the stats predicted.
     
  6. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Your whole premise is very questionable. Thus, you challenged us to look for other answers.

    Maybe you should read the famous scientific paper called "The Hot Hand." It is probably one of the most quoted papers at the Sloan Sports Analytics Convention. It explains your confirmation bias and clustering illusion using basketball hot streaks as an example.

    Why Outliers are analyzed to predict the future in sports

    Everyone examines outliers, because they often are the most useful information. "The Hot Hand" explains streaks and explains how to analyze them. Some methods are to remove outliers and put them back in to confirm a mean average. That's what I did to statistically predict that the Rockets are a 107 DRtg team, with or without Beverley. I merely removed Phi/Utah, ran the numbers, and put them back in, and ran the numbers. to find 107 was the more predictable number ... not your 105.4

    I'm analyzing the outliers to predict the future. You can say I'm wrong and stick to your weak premise above, but that's my logical prediction based upon analyzing the stats.

    What I did with the outliers, especially with data sets involving human behaviors, human strategy, random occurrences and luck is perfectly sound. Sabermetrics statisticians do this too and so do betting odds makers. You don't really know what I'm am doing statistically., and hysterically projecting your Confirmation Bias onto me, when your premise above was based on bias. As I told you, I work with scientists and statisticians for a living, and write their software algorithms. I know what they do and understand that Wikipedia paragraph your keep quoting much better than you do.

    Your statement above of common sense (or logic) "dictates" your premise is wrong. It is scientifically bad to use induction in this manner. That was bad use of logic in science during Greek times. It is called hypothesis construction, susceptible to bias. Do you want me to find Wikipedia quotes?
     
    #226 heypartner, Dec 2, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2016
  7. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Member

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    His D is aight #nohomo
     
  8. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Member

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    Beverley has a very nice D.
     
    Yaosthirdleg likes this.
  9. roxallways

    roxallways Member

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    Offensive rebounding keeping the Nuggets in it.
     
    TheRealAllpro likes this.
  10. dharocks

    dharocks Member

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    He's clearly got his legs back. What a dumb thread to make when a guy comes back from knee surgery 9 games earlier than expected.
     
    MajorSeanBond and DMO (DJ remix) like this.
  11. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Doug Collins praising Beverley all game again, like last night, too. He's basically making sure the public doesn't overlook and underrate him. This "Bev is Overrated" thing is just a CFnet thing, imso. I don't hear/read people overrating him.
     
    MajorSeanBond likes this.
  12. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    Beverley a team high +23. OP hiding because his logic sucks. NBD.
     
    MajorSeanBond likes this.
  13. Pen15clubber

    Pen15clubber Member

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    Rock solid D baby
     
  14. Tom Bombadillo

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    OP is an idiot...
     
    MajorSeanBond likes this.
  15. Pen15clubber

    Pen15clubber Member

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    I feel like we are getting back the bev of old. Not the bev that has to try and be a creator but the bev who takes what the d gives up and then spends most of his energy impacting the game doing Beverley like things. Same for Ariza. We signed two guys who are there for our offense so bev and Ariza get to flourish in the roles they are meant to be in. This is the bev of old, the one I love. The one I lust
     
    bulkatron likes this.
  16. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Clustering Illusion

    vs GSW we post a 102.2

    So, Post-Beverley return (8 games) : 109.5 (That's a 1.4 drop in one game. See how fast one game can move you in such a small sample ... which is why you do outlier analysis like I did)

    vs Denver we post a 107.8

    ... even when giving up 28 freaking offensive boards, and playing at high altitude b2b from a 2OT game
    And 107.8 is yet again what my statistical analysis of the outliers predicted our Team DRtg has been all season ... 107.5
     
  17. TheRealAllpro

    TheRealAllpro Morey only fan

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    I voted yes but I love Bev he is does more than just d. He is exactly what this teams needs.
     
  18. FTW Rockets FTW

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  19. Garner

    Garner Member

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    ya'dumb.
     
    heypartner likes this.
  20. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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