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BBP.com: Computer Simulation on Playoff/Lotto Odds Based on Revamped Roster

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Mar 22, 2012.

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  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    I thought this was an interesting article. These guys have been doing the SCHOENE projection referenced in it for some time now.


    http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2168

    Basically, what Kevin Pelton does here (and what his college Bradford Doolittle does in a separate, subscriber-only article) is to project what would happen at the end of the regular season by looking at the revamped post-trade-deadline rosters of each team and running large number of computer simulations based on such rosters.

    A few Rockets-related results:

    1. Pelton's simulation has the Rockets with a 15.5% chance of ending up in the lottery or, conversely, a 84.5% chance of making the playoffs.

    My take-away: (1) The SCHOENE system must really love Marcus Camby, and (2) I wonder if the results here accounts for Lowry likely to miss some more games. My guess is Lowry's absence is not accounted for.


    2. The simulations have NYK with a 50.6% chance of being in the lottery. The NYK pick has a 95.8% chance of being anywhere from 10th to 20th. NYK has a 98.7% chance of conveying the pick to Houston.

    Probably a bit high on NY's lotto chances right now given NY's hot streak, but who knows that team's been streaky.


    3. According to the simulations, HOU has a 84.5% chance of conveying HOU's own pick to NJ (by making the playoffs). There is a 60% chance that the pick is from 17th to 20th.

    Again, this seems high given Lowry's absence.

    4. According to the simulations, the Dallas pick has a 33% chance of being conveyed to Houston (by being 21st to 30th). There is a substantial probability (55% or so) that Dallas will end up with picks 16-20th.

    This actually sounds about right. Dallas has been inconsistent.
     
    #1 Carl Herrera, Mar 22, 2012
  2. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    TL;DR 85% chance we make the playoffs and thereby give our pick to New Jersey, 50/50 chance the Knicks pick is in the lottery, 1 in 3 chance we get the Dallas pick this year.
     
    #2 OremLK, Mar 22, 2012
  3. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    They Knicks missing the playoffs has been the single biggest interest for me this season.
     
    #3 larsv8, Mar 22, 2012
    1 person likes this.
  4. Rockets Jones

    Rockets Jones Member

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    Odds are popycock, I'm sorry this doesn't mean anything especially given Rockets history. Injuries are just around the corner annd nobody knows when Martin and or Lowry will be back, how it will affect the rotation, other player's minutes and performance.

    Also Knicks are on a roll and Mavs could easily get hot and end up in the top 10 or fall out just as easily.

    Since this is all just a guess, here's my guess: Mavs are not in top 10, Knicks make the playoffs, Rockets end up 10th with Jazz, Suns & Twolves finishing ahead of us.
     
    #4 Rockets Jones, Mar 22, 2012
  5. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    TL;DR 85% chance Nets, 50% Knicks, 33% Dallas
     
    #5 napalm06, Mar 22, 2012
  6. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    The difference being some guesses are more educated (based on roster, strength of schedule, etc) than others.
     
    #6 Carl Herrera, Mar 22, 2012
  7. Rocketman95

    Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

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    TL;DR 8et3ass
     
    #7 Rocketman95, Mar 22, 2012
  8. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Not really. Milwaukee is hotter than NY right now (a 6 game winning streak going) and they made the biggest trade deadline improvement for this season's playoff push -- Monte Ellis for a center who won't play again this year.

    50% odds of Milw vs NY is about right, imo.
     
    #8 heypartner, Mar 22, 2012
  9. Blurr#7

    Blurr#7 Contributing Member

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    How about this guy simulates the 94-95 Rockets playing the 92-93 Bulls in the finals so we finally put it rest.
     
    #9 Blurr#7, Mar 22, 2012
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  10. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    I wouldn't think so. I think it takes into account that Portland decided to tank, Minnesota just lost Rubio, and Utah and Phoenix really aren't that good. The last seat is wide open for the Rockets to take.
     
    #10 JuanValdez, Mar 22, 2012
  11. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    "Injuries are just around the corner..."

    a prediction of injuries to come...? talk about pessimism.... jus when I thought evaluations on this board couldnt become more negative... lol
     
    #11 kjayp, Mar 22, 2012
  12. killakim

    killakim Member

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    Rather, it's our seat to lose.
     
    #12 killakim, Mar 22, 2012
  13. IzakDavid13

    IzakDavid13 Contributing Member

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    Already have, Bulls lose we win. Case closed.
     
    #13 IzakDavid13, Mar 22, 2012
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