[Basketball Prospectus] Rebuild? Discussion on the "Success Cycle"

I'd argue the opposite, having seen him play first hand (correct me if I'm wrong, but I've read that Kobe refused to work out for other teams?) and only needing a 13th pick, it was not a big gamble for West. If they took him with the first pick, that would have been a bigger gamble. Also, the Divac trade was part of the plan to clear cap space for Shaq.

 

At first, Kobe was open to playing in New Jersey or LA. Kobe avoided workouts for most other teams. Kobe had 3 workouts with them and was dominating NBA veterans as a 17 yr old HS kid. It was after these workouts, that the Nets knew Kobe would be a special player and Nash wanted to select Kobe at the 8th spot.

Arn Tellem and Kobe called to say he wouldn't play for the Nets, if they drafted him.

Charlotte thought Kobe was good, but knew that he wouldn't play for him, so they worked out a deal before the draft.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/nba/02playoffs/2002-06-04-phil-kobe.htm

 

Anytime you trade a solid starter for a draft pick it's a roll of the dice. Many many ultra talented picks turn out to be busts. Just look at the history of top 3 picks. Adam Morrison, Greg Oden, and many others at every position.

Lakers decided that the team they had - a very good team, wasn't going to ever win a ring. So West decided to make changes. Not just getting shaq, but going for superstars wherever he could get them. He saw Kobe had that potential. And repeat - POTENTIAL. Because there is no sure thing in any sport.

You only do this trade if you are shooting for the stars. And that's what makes West great.

Now the question is, does Morey have that? Can he see that this team is not a contender and know that he has to roll the dice and get someone he can build around. It's ALWAYS a gamble.

 

Thanks for clearing that up BetterThanEver.

That was a very low risk high reward gamble lol. If Morey got to see the latest 17 year old phenom work out against and dominate Battier, do you think he'd give up assets for a 13th pick to get him? Of course he would. Given the information that West had (which other teams didn't), and Kobe's desire to play for LA and no one else, West's moves were not a big gamble.

 

That shows what a crapshoot the draft is. Three players, all being looked at by the team with that draft pick: Kobe, Kittles, Wallace.

* One is with 6 teams in his undistinguished 7-year NBA career.
* One puts up solid numbers as a starter for his 8-year career.
* One is among the greatest ever and has 5 rings and counting.

It's a roulette wheel.

 

Nets knew that Kobe was the best player. It wasn't a question about who was better. Kobe was already schooling NBA vets as a 17 yr old. They knew he was better than Kittles and Wallace, but they knew Kobe was going to play for them.

 

fixed