[Basketball Prospectus] Rebuild? Discussion on the "Success Cycle"

What you mean to say is, what YOU THINK most fans mean when they say...

I would want to trade Kevin Martin or Luis Scola if it means we can move up to get a potential #3 pick in the draft (assuming the guy is worth it, of course) -- this would be considered trading away 'good players' for 'potential.' Are you against this strategy?

 

No, and only one team has ever won with its best player not being a draft pick/draft day trade.

Shaq's Lakers.

 

LOL this is the main problem with tanking. You don't know who who is worth it until its too late. When Orlando drafted Dwight over Okafor a lot of people thought Weisbrod was nuts. Emaka Okafor was theoretically the guy who would be "worth it". OTH if we ended up trading KM or Scola for OKafor who spent his first three seasons battling injuries and never really increased his rookie numbers then that would be a horrible move.

So getting franchise players is quite hard to do. Top lottery picks don't even guarantee it, Memphis and the Grizz have multiple high lottery players on their team yet still don't have that one franchise player. If you ask me trading good players now and dumping everything of value just for the chance to get a guy you hope will be good later doesn't seem worth it. I mean if its a low-risk high reward type of move sure go for it, but if it means trading a proven player with a lot left in the tank like Kevin Martin for a guy who might bust then I don't think its a good strategy...

 

I remember when quite a few people on this board scoffed at the idea of dealing Budinger + #14 to move up in the draft. "Why trade a proven player for an unknown!?!"

You're right, Kevin Martin is a proven player. A proven third-tier star that isn't going to fetch you a big name in a trade. Derek Favors is an unproven rookie that will most likely end up fetching Carmelo Anthony in a trade. Which one would I rather have? Well that's pretty obvious.

I guess I have more faith in this front office than a lot of ya'll do -- I don't see us ever going into back-to-back-to-back lotteries with nothing to show for it, as some of the most inept franchises you listed have.

 

Most number 3 picks will never reach what Scola and Martin are at right now, makes no sense to deal them for potential.

 

Considering this draft class has basically been a bust I don't know why you think most people were wrong here. Outside of Wall and Derek Favors I can't think of anyone that would be a clear upgrade over PP.

So what' s your point? We deal KM to get Favors to get Melo?

Also Favors alone won't get Melo. The nyets have to add 4 first rounders to the deal and Nuggets aren't even sure they do the deal.

This is false, because unless Les Alexander explicitly orders DM to strip down the roster there's very little chance we'll be in back-to-back lotteries, or if we end up in the lottery we'll never be bad enough to get a top 5 pick.

 

Good article OP. Really, it's difficult to get a star and win a championship with any formula. At least with this one we will be winning and be a competitive team instead of terrible (since there are no guarantees with tanking or waiting for a trade)

This. I am all for playing the young guys, but having veteran leadership to help guide these guys to develop their games and become real leaders is invaluable.

 

Some people confuse rebuilding with sucking. We are rebuilding right. now. It doesn't mean we have to suck. The Celtics in those 10 seasons were not "rebuilding" they had no choice because they sucked. We are rebuilding and we are FIGHTING. I'd rather have it this way than suck for seasons on end. We will find a loophole. We will find a star. Just have hope.

 

Tank to get them

good management to build around them.
bad management trade them.

step 1: Rockets need to tank to get them.

 

Clippers have been tanking for years, bobcats have tanked their entire franchise history, memphis, etc...

Cleveland tanked to get Lebron, Hurray! And he still left them via Free Agency.

Tanking is and always has been for losers.

 

you forgot the "good management" part.

With good management, you can rebuild really fast through tanking.

 

Good management don't tank.

 

Bingo...

 

Bingo

 

We traded Moses Malone away and got Sampson and Olajuwon. We could have been a dynasty in the 80s if injuries and cocaine didn't ruin our team.

A more recent example. Orlando traded McGrady and got Howard. They built a contender around him. They could have been better had they made better decisions along the way.

 

Orlando could've had Mcgady and Howard, they already had the no 1 draft pick before they dealt Mcgrady. You could argue that trading mcgrady cost them championships.

 

You're right -- no way DeMarcus Cousins would be a clear upgrade over PP. PP's Rio Grande numbers are sick!

My point is that we're not going to acquire a superstar by trading Kevin Martin. How are you going to build a championship team without a superstar? Specifically, how are you going to do it when your three best players are all poor defenders?

Spoiler Alert: You can't.

Getting high draft picks allows us to actually be relevant in trade discussions involving true superstars. If Dwight comes on the market at the end of next year, do you think a 31 year old Scola will be what they want? Not even close. We need the Favors/Cousins type talents if we want our trade proposals to stack up with the rest of the leagues.

The Nuggets want Derek Favors. They don't want 3-4 mediocre-to-good young players like the Rockets have.. they want ONE potential elite player with additional draft picks.

How is this false? You donkey. I wasn't even saying it would happen -- I was just saying that should we ever wind up with a team that is lottery bound multiple years, I sincerely doubt that our front office would strike out each draft like some of the inept franchises you listed have.

You're so entrenched into arguing against me that you can't even accept a simple statement, which you most likely agree with, without trying to argue it.

 

If you want to tank, then you better fire Daryl Morey.

If Les wanted Daryl to tank, he would resign tommorrow, and get hired the next day by another organisation.

GMs that get high draft picks year after year get fired. That's why the GMs that draft the great talents never are around when they win championships.

Cos great GMs never put their teams in a position to be one of the worst teams in the league.

 

Oh, you mean the guy who was the fattest player to ever participate in a predraft camp? Who argued with the Sacramento conditioning team about how fat and out of shape he was? Who continues to butt heads with coach and make headlines for all the wrong reasons (like choking on his choking taunt)?

The truth is I'd rather have the guy who has a lower ceiling but doesn't get into any trouble than the high potential, high risk young prospect. Very few of those pan out, examples like Antoine Walker, Derrick Coleman and Eddy Curry are a dime a dozen in the NBA. To me, that's just a waste of a draft pick since you have to spend so much time and effort coddling a player only to see him self-destruct in a couple of years.

The problem here is you don't get high draft picks without turning your roster into mush, and superstar players don't want to play with mush. Nuggets are a pretty good example, if you ASK the Nuggets they'd want to deal with NJ instead of NY, but if you ask Melo which team he prefers more he'll say NY simply because Amare, Felton and Gallinari look better than Lopez and Harris.

Supposing we target Dwight when he becomes a FA and turn KM and Scola into lottery picks, would dwight accept playing on a houston team strapped of talent?

Tanking is a crapshoot, no matter how good your management is there's no guarantee your team will be decent once you start down the path of tanking. As an example look at the trailblazers, I would argue Pritchard was 3x more capable than Chris Wallace but you look at the Blazers now and they don't seem much better than the Grizz.

LOL no need to get so worked up about it. This is the internetz, perfect place for arguing with anonymous people over random things.

 

1. You don't have to tank to get a high draft pick -- you can trade your assets for one, as I've laid out to you in previous posts. I don't understand with your fascination with the word 'tank' -- I've never said the Rockets should lose on purpose. Please read my post and arguments and don't assume I'm making the same argument as someone else that posted pages ago.

2. "Gms that get high draft picks get fired." Yeah. Sure. I guess Sam Presti isn't considered a good GM since he got multiple high draft picks. I guess Pritchard was never considered a good GM since he got multiple high draft picks. Please. The only GMs that get fired are the ones who get multiple lottery picks with nothing to show for them.

If you're so worried about our front office not being able to find legitimate talent with a top three pick, I hope I never see you throwing out the "In Morey We Trust" phrase.

3. Cos great GMs.. do whatever the hell is in the best interest of their franchise. If that means trading Kevin Martin to get Derek Favors so you can land Carmelo Anthony, then so be it. If that means trading off every bad contract you have to clear cap room to sign a big FA, then so be it. GREAT GMs DO WHATEVER IS NECESSARY TO GET THEIR TEAM ON THE RIGHT TRACK.

It's hard to justify debating someone who is so obviously entrenched into their position that they're not willing to concede a fact that they even most likely agree with. No matter what I say, you'll reject it and counter with the same crap.

For instance, 90%+ of Clutchfans would trade Patterson for Cousins. And yet, to you, he's not a clear upgrade.

As far as Dwight goes, you would convince him with the notion that you'll surround him with talent. I'm not even going to speculate on a potential deal as its years away, but CP3 is a FA I believe in the same year. Why don't you clear Martin/Scola off the books and get enough under the cap where you can offer a spot to both of them?

Kevin Pritchard did a pretty good job of recognizing talent. I won't ever blame a GM for selecting a player that sustains a major injury that was hard or impossible to predict. Perry Jones could blow out his knee after you draft him or Carmelo could -- injuries are a part of life.