Big believer in social welfare programs. In the case of Obama, he's a big believer in corporate welfare as well.
Right and wrong. I do think it is too early for anyone but a paradigm changing personality to get elected if they happen to be black. I like a lot of things about Obama, but I don't think he's a transformational character. They say you have to make the run for Pres in the first 14 years you're on the national stage, so I can't blame him for going... and he has more experience than W and about as much as JFK... I just don't think he'll make it this time. Could easily be wrong though. And I think you're wrong in that the first black President... if it happens in the next 20 years... will be a Dem. Republicans only nominate people who have paid their dues... HW and Dole... or legacies...W. The only blacks that fit into those categories are obviously the dues payers and of those realistically only Condi has a whisper of a chance to want and get the nomination and I would bet my kid's college fund that she never does. In the short term future, there's not going to be a black Republican that comes out of nowhere like Obama did a few years ago and potentially grabs a nomination... it's just not in the party DNA for someone to do that, be they white or black. That might change in the future, particularly as the party redefines itself after the disaster that is the Bush Presidency, but I don't see it changing enough in the next couple of cycles for a black to get the Repub nom.
I disagree on the black president thing. I think a black man could absolutely be elected. for example, do you think if Colin Powell had run in 2004 against Kerry, he woudl have lost??? i like MOST of what I've seen from Obama. Maybe I'm just being overly-optimistic because I'd like to see the guy get a shot.
Running in the general and running in the primaries are two different things entirely. No way Colin could make it out of the Republican primaries. See John McCain in 2000 for a glimpse of what Powell would have to go through. Even if he did, he wouldn't be able to take the Repub base for granted and run to the center as W did in 2000... he would constantly have to prove himself to the base, which would slowly erode his general support. (Also, I might add... if Powell was the Repub nominee in 2004, that means he'd be running not against Kerry, but against the incumbent, President Gore. I would have liked to see that. Too bad we went on this journey through the evil alternative universe. )
The odd statistic here is that very few US Presidents in modern history come out of the Senate. The conventional wisdom is that Senators have to go on record about too many issues and can be called to task too may times by one issue opponents. So maybe Obama's lack of Senate history is actually a plus. My personal feeling is that Obama is going to roll up the 08 elections like Vince Young. I was frankly shocked by the depth of the mood of the people in the total overhaul of congress in the last election, if that momentum is held, and I don't see GWB doing anything to change it, a charismatic, smiling, speaker with a populist message of hope will win in a landslide. People gravitate to hope; it's why they go to church and have kids. (And I think the people will want to elect someone they think is actually intellegent. Anyone after Clinton and Bush has to be someone who won't embarrass us. I'm tired of the US preisident looking like a buffoon.)
As an aside, I'm actually looking forward to '08. Not just because it's the end of Bush's term...but because I actually like some of the touted candidates... Barack, Guglianni, McCain, and...yes...even Hillary. Just keep Jeb and Gore locked away please.
I read somewhere the other day that if Hillary actually won the presidency, a Bush or Clinton will have been on a presidential ticket for 36 years. We need new blood!
The right wing zealots in the GOP would have made hamburger of Powell had he run. No way the GOP nominates a black for pres any time soon. If the Dems do, the same zealots will make what happened to Kerry look like a hug and a kiss. The GOP nominee will disavow the smear campaign but won't stop it. If you ask me, when it happens, it will be a traumatic event for the country. I think the viciousness of the election would force all America to realize race is a much larger issue than it wants to believe. It wouldn't be the 1960s all over again, but the impact on the country would be similar.
Well 32 Bush Sr 12 (8vp 4p) Jr 8 (2 terms) Bill 8 (2 terms) Hill 4 Thats 32 with the potential to be 36, god help us
trust and beleive With a Middle name like that . . it will be repeated often Not say Basso is doing this but . . others will do it to 1. demonstrate and emphasize his OTHER ness and 2. Hussein . . .alot of folx will subconsciously connect him to the likes of Saddam Rocket River I predict Rush will use it early and often
It may do him some good to have that that whole and very foreign name repeated as often as possible. When people see it in the ballot box, it'll trigger a xenophobic feeling. But, not if they heard the name repeated 8 gazillion trillion times already. As for Obama, I know he is very charismatic. I don't know if he has any other worthwhile characteristics. Charisma (for good and ill) can cover over a lot of shortcomings. I'd need to learn more about him to vote for him. Of course, it seems like most elections nowadays are just about making sure the other guy doesn't get elected. So, Obama's chances may rely more on who the opponent is than who he is.
Well, This is what kos has to say about it. He definitely disagrees with me- 2008: If Obama runs, he wins by kos Tue Dec 05, 2006 at 10:03:31 AM PST Standard caveats aside (it's early, we don't have a set field, blah blah blah), it's hard to see how Barack Obama loses the nomination barring scandal or the mother-of-all gaffes. I've been working up a few scenarios given the primary calendar (which isn't set in stone, with states like California looking to move up), and really, it would be Obama's race to lose. Iowa is right next door to Obama's Illinois, and while Vilsack will win it (getting no boost out of it), the race for second-place will determine the "true" winner. Hillary, for now, appears to be bypassing Iowa. So the early battle would appear to be between Edwards and Obama. A 2-3 finish for these guys, in any order, leaves them in good shape moving forward. Nevada will be a battle between Edwards and his union allies, and Richardson and his southwestern and Latino base. New Hampshire will be fertile territory for Hillary and maybe Kerry (they hate Richardson because he pushed to insert Nevada into the calendar ahead of New Hampshire). And then South Carolina. With Iowa out of the big picture thanks to Vilsack, and New Hampshire diluted by Nevada, South Carolina may well decide our nominee in 2008. Richardson thinks he can win the state (I'm not sure how), and he, Edwards and Clark will stake their entire bids on the state. But given the state's large African American population, along with Obama's popularity with female voters (yeah, they love him), and it's tough to see how the rest, splitting the dwindling white male vote, can overcome those hurdles. There's one thing that could put a skid on Obama's fast rise -- an Al Gore entrance into the race. Other than that, I don't see a way anyone stops him. Again, we don't know what the final field will look like, so things can dramatically change. But an entrance into the race would make Obama the prohibitive favorite. If politics is about seizing opportunities, it would seem a no-brainer for him to enter the race now. What's more, Obama would then be tough to beat in the general. He would very well be the favorite in that race, even against a McCain, and would probably be a net positive for Democrats running down the ballot. So it wouldn't be a terrible thing by any means. (Tired disclaimer: None of this implies endorsement. I will say nice things and mean things about all these candidates before it's all said and done. As of now, I have no preferences or favorites.) http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/12/5/12817/5575
What about an Edwards/Obama ticket??? Just thinking out loud. If the concern is that Obama is new on the scene, being a VP nominee might help in that regard.
Why would Edwards be at the top of that ticket? Barack has more experience, charisma etc. Before coming to the US Senate, he was an Illinois state senator, community organizer, editor of harvard law review... Edwards was just a lawyer before coming to the senate. If Obama runs, he runs for the top of the ticket. And if he runs, he wins. The only person I could see him taking the vp spot for is Gore.
