[Back of the Napkin Calculation] Replacing Brewer with Lou

Most of these approaches are not that great. I think just going in at each game and looking at where we lost by 10 or less and looking if our offensive was stale that day. Lou would add an entire new option to carry us over that hill. It is more of having options when people start going cold. More people you add in that can score less likely it would be for the entire team to start bricking. There are many times that Gordon carried us over the finish line when everyone else went cold. Lou would just increase the depth even more.

A lot of our losses are when our entire team goes 3-30 on the 3's. One more shooter should at least get us to 6 for 30 which is 9 extra points.

Also there is the GREAT backup for our guys when they get hurt. Even more so this should bring Hardens minutes down by 3 to 4 which in the NBA is huge for increasing his productivity when he is on the court.

 

How does Brewer's defensive output match up to Lou's? Don't get me wrong - I think this is am MASSIVE upgrade regardless, but I'm curious what the numbers suggest because Brewer is known as a pesky defender (granted one who gambles a lot) and Williams is known more as a one way player yet Lou actually manages to get more steals a game than Brewer did. Just curious. We clearly won this trade unless LA lands better than a role player late in the draft with our pick but for a team looking to win now, and a team looking to lose now, this seems like a perfect marriage.

 

Omg I just realized I don't have to watch the headless chicken trying to dribble down the court anymore.

 

@kevC That whole napkin math and I kept reading thinking, shouldn't all those numbers ADD UP to give use more wins when combined.

Or is that wrong thinking for this kind of math. I am old school. 1 + 1 still equals 3 to me.

 

OK Gotcha. I will now go back to sitting and observing. Good time to be a Rocket fan. Almost feels like summer 2013 (all the hype around Dwight).

 

How do yall think the minute distribution will go?

 

I don't know about that. Defenses were able to focus on Lou because none of his teammates were big threats. His Rockets teammates will keep defenses honest (and scattered way across the court).

 

Hopefully D'Antoni can figure out a way to have Harden/Bev and Lou/Bev on the court a lot together. My hope would be that Harden and Lou rarely see the floor together except when they go small and you have Harden playing the 3 essentially.

Not sure how practical it is, but I'd like floor combos to include Harden and Bev, Harden and Gordon and then Lou and Bev and Lou and Gordon.

 

if even guys like Ryno/EG/Ariza/Bev are able to still get wide open looks, Lou williams will get the same. That's just the benefit of having all these guys on the floor playing with someone like Harden

 

@kevC - Pen15clubber wants his napkin back.

Great analysis, agreed with above that this is pretty much a win win trade.

 

Him not being wide open like Brewer means that everyone else should have an easier time too. The floor could never be spread with Brewer, he was a big negative on the offensive end. Williams' role will be so dramatically different. He can legitimately carry our offense when Harden sits. Our offense won't bog down as badly as it does now. And if he can continue drawing fouls at his current rate opposing wing defenders may have to worry about fouling out between Harden and Williams.

 

Hopefully we can have plenty of Harden/LouWill 1on1 in the lane coming off a screen now

 

Will he fumble the ball or be as out of position as Brewer?
If not .. . . could cut the turnovers

Rocket River

 

For all brewer's fumbling here, Lou turned it over more with the Lakers.