I think it's almost entirely contingent on Chet becoming a Top 5 player in the league. I don't think SGA has that in him at all. I'm at the point of believing that Top 5 players are elite at two of three things. Scoring, Defense, Playmaking. SGA has scoring but that's it. He's a so so defender and a passable playmaker but he isn't Luka and he isn't peak Harden. It's why Russ never won. The absolute anomaly here is Steph Curry who I don't think was good at defense or an elite playmaker. But he was a riot maker. Another anomaly is Dirk but he was 7' tall. Take the Celtics for example. Tatum isn't a Top 5 player and never will be. So you have a Top 10ish player and a Top 20ish player. Is that a title contender? No. Of the players in the young cores that are capable of being Top 5 players I think goes as follows: Amen Thompson, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero, Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson. Basically you need to have supreme vision and playmaking or be an insane defender on top of a 24 PPG scorer. Maybe Cade can be this but I haven't seen it. That 2022 Draft is looking good now that I think about it.
I like the sneaking of Jabari in there. Jabari has the avenue to be an elite defender but not an offensive player. Like look at the difference in self creation ability of Paolo vs Jabari: Paolo was slightly more efficient than Jabari but he was doing it on 50+% self creation while almost all of Jabari's scoring was set up by more talented offensive creators like Green or Sengun. Your rule is also arbitrary. It just sounds good to your ears hence why every time a rule to the exception comes up you are "but there is an exception" but you basically listed almost half the championships won in the past two decades. So that's one hell of an exception. All superstar franchise players had one common denominator ability, elite self creation. That isn't the avenue in which Jabari will be a star. Jalen for example has the natural traits to be an elite scorer and a really good playmaker because he does something franchise players do, collapse defenses. Over time as he makes more correct reads he will find the open teammates he generates from his defensive collapsing ability. You can create an offense around Green's defense collapsing ability. Green's gifts creates a lot of open teammates if you watch a lot of Rocket games this past season. It's just he misses them often and tries to go for some difficult finish instead. That is something experience and coaching resolve. The important thing is there is a natural special talent there that can collapse defenses and create open teammates.
I have Rockets at #26 Hornets are better than Houston (Miles Bridges will be back, PJ Washington will sign again, LaMelo only played a few games, Tai Jones and Mark Williams will help that defense be stellar) Decent inside-outside offensive game. Raptors will be better than Rockets with or without Siakim. Siakim trade brings back a decent player or two. Marquis Nowell is a dual player but i like him setting the table better than what Fred VanVleet did last season. Schroder is a bandaid at PG, Scottie Barnes will shine at point PF. Houston lacks the outside game offensively despite how Jabari looked in Summer League. Without the 3-point shooting the paint will be packed and near the rim and mid range shots get bogged down and heavily contested. Ime will be Buddy Ryan (NFL coach) of the NBA this season by just being defense, defense, defense. Tony Allen, Sefalosha, Ben Simmons, and Dillon Brooks don't do enough offensively to justify being a starter. Ime will have to manufacture offense by going small: absent of the big money FA's. KPj/Jalen Green/Cam Whitmore/Tari/Jabari
So after 2 years of me saying the rockets are going to tank and saying they were going to win way less games than you each time. Now you are switching to the opposite and think they will win 25ish games. You sir should probably steer clear of Vegas and/or sports betting.
You honestly don't recall our conversation last season? I said 34 games (+/- 2 games) meaning low 32 or high 36 games. The (+/- I always post each preseason is a margin of error) I looked at "predict 22/23 win total" thread. I did not post a comment. It was probably with minutes allocated. I'll keep looking. But I said, if you are right and we are tanking.....then 25 wins. You were right we did tank and won 22 games. I believe Vegas had us at 22 games and ESPN had us at 29 games in preseason. So I was 1 off my margin of error +/- 2 games from 25 wins. I know I said we had the schedule from hell to start the season and management may just throw in the towel. I had us winning 8 games in the first 25......I believe on recollection we won 9 games in the first 25. Might have been based off first 20 games. I hope to find our conversation....I know I said the NBA won't let us get Wemby way back then. No need to tank. ----------------- This season (not the same as last season) 1) high turnover of personnel Kenyon/JC/ Garuba/TyTy/Nix x Dillon/FVv/Jeff G/A Holiday/Landale When new coaches join a vet team, it usually takes a month and a half to build chemistry, continuity, timing, familiarity where teammates like their shots, etc, etc. We are not talking about a vet team. The Celtics were a yearly playoff team with Brad Stevens before Udoka started the season he did. The team struggled to learn the Udoka way. They started 18-19 (under .500) but that was a vet team that were use to one another. Just trying to incorporate Schroder. This Houston team has 22 year olds in Green/Sengun/Jabari/Tari... adding rookies in Amen/Cam Whitmore plus sprinkling in vets of FVv/Dillon/ Jeff Green/Aaron Holiday/Landale. It's a lot of moving parts all trying to find their nitch while trying to learn their new teammates intricacies while getting familiar with a new coaching staff. This is probably not that playoff Celtics team taking 36 games to figure it out. Or that Kobe/Karl Malone/Gary Payton team needed time. Or that Kobe/Dwight Howard/Steve Nash team that canned coach Brown after about 12 games.......the Rockets may take longer since there are so many moving parts. I say it takes until mid December to start clicking some. 2) no spacing. The offense is going to be bogged down, especially if VanVleet walks the ball up the court as much as he did last season. Rockets were trying to get down court fast to get some easy baskets before the opposition set up their half court defense. Despite KPj walking the ball up the court, Rockets were 16th in Pace. Raptors were 26th in Pace....supposedly led by Fred VanVleet. 3) one basketball and everyone needing to touch the ball. Too many chefs can ruin the soup. Ime like every new coach is going to try every lineup and different combination because every coach wants to know all his best combinations and eventually set a rotation accordingly. 4) I feel like the West was not so good last season. *Kings were better, but *Suns looked poorer as Ayton-team relationship soured and CP3 production dipped noticably. *Clips continued to be hurt *T-wolves added Gobert and gave up a ton. I knew Gobert/KAT would not work. * Utah shipped out Donavon Mitchell-Gobert *Lakers with Westbrook. Need I say more? *Dallas added C Wood.....we tried to warn them. *Pelicans....Zion can't stop eating. I called it before that draft West is much better this year. Sticking with 31 wins (+/- 2 games). [ Low of 29 and high of 33 wins ] Kelly Iko was with the Athletic and one guy on the panel thinks like me. He has the Rockets winning 27 games. Guy with the sunglasses thinks like me, VanVleet and Dillon are going to shoot us out of games, often.
Kelly Iko is a complete idiot. I’m surprised you are aligning with him like it’s a compliment. I do think you make valid points here and I also believe we will struggle for at least half the season to find our footing. There is a lot to do and fans will have to be patient. Since most fans are offensively focused they will look at our lack of shooting (if it persists) and proclaim the world is coming to an end, but I expect our defense to be much better right off the bat. Confidence will also be a factor. If the NBA totally screws us schedule wise like they did last year, it will make Ime’s job even that more difficult.
Iko isn’t anti-Houston, he just gets completely railroaded anytime he has to interact with his national colleagues. No debating skills whatsoever. It’s like watching the inept public defender in My Cousin Vinny. I really feel bad for him, and it’s just not a good look for our city. We need more guys like Roosh on a national stage, fighting back against these slappies with a microphone.
Maybe he aligned with me He did hit on my sentiments exactly when he said the two timelines will be in conflict.....which highlights my frustration with these offseason moves spot on. Our young players are going to take a back seat to two inefficient high volume chuckers. They will try to show fans, peers, themselves that they are worthy of those two outrageous contracts. FVv is going to have a target on his back. Every PG is going to say, "oh so he is a $43M point guard?" "Let me show you what a $43M point guard looks like!!" "I'm making $15M, and he is making $43M....if I dominate Fred VanVleet.....then I'm worthy of $43M on my next contract" Dude making Giannis money is a joke. @peleincubus Vegas has the Rockets win total at 31.5 I said 31 wins about a week ago What say you now? What were you saying about me and Vegas? I came out with my win total first
I don’t have time to respond right now. But the 26th place you stated would imply a likely 25ish win total which doesn’t seem reasonable at all to me.
https://theathletic.com/4700709/2023/07/20/nba-power-rankings-nuggets-bucks-warriors/ Tier 6: Tank Adjacent Right Now 25. Houston Rockets (27) Key additions (including re-signs): Ime Udoka (coach) Dillon Brooks (Memphis) Fred VanVleet (Toronto) Jock Landale (Phoenix) Jeff Green (Denver) Aaron Holiday (Atlanta) Amen Thompson (fourth pick) Cam Whitmore (20th pick) Key subtractions: Stephen Silas (fired) Daishen Nix (waived) TyTy Washington (Oklahoma City) Usman Garuba (Oklahoma City) KJ Martin (Clippers) Josh Christopher (Memphis) Pressing question: Will all of the Rockets’ moves lead to actual victories and consistency on the court? To be honest, I have no idea where to put this Rockets squad. This feels both disrespectful and accurate. Adding veterans such as VanVleet and Brooks should help right away. Those are also two players who couldn’t even make 40 percent of their shots last season. There is so much young talent on this roster, but how do they possibly get enough time and reps with the current construction? Udoka eventually figured out the right rotation for Boston in his season there, but this could be a much tougher endeavor. It feels like a squad a year away from actual success.
That's very fair. The team has to prove they've improved on the court before they acknowledge an improved roster. The roster in paper has improved quite a bit. But that doesn't always translate into more wins. You can tell from his wording that he thinks the roster has a possibility of being a lot higher than 25 by the end of the season because he said the ranking instinctively feels disrespectful.
Wait, Celtics aren't title contenders to you? I think making it to the finals a year ago gives them some contender qualification...
