The more tape I watch and the more thought I put into it the more convinced I am that Amen's bust potential isn't quite as high as it's been made out to be, including by myself. This is not a kid who lacks basketball skills and only has raw physicality like Hasheem Thabeet. At a very young age, he's already a very good passer with good court vision and a great feel for the game. I've seen him called the best passer in this draft class. He has good handles. He's a good, creative finisher around the rim with a nice touch. This is not just a dunker, he hits some very technically difficult shots around the rim. He gets a lot of rebounds with his length and athleticism, especially for a guy I see as a natural point guard. I've also heard rave reviews of his character, motor, and work ethic, which is what helps me a lot here. I think if he were 2 inches taller and played PF nobody would question his game for a second and he'd be drawing nonstop "young Blake Griffin" comparisons. Because he's truly that kind of ridiculous athlete. (Griffin shot 20% from three and 61% from the FT line his first three seasons combined.) Let's also not forget that Westbrook was already a decent player in the league before he had any kind of jump shot. He shot 22% from 3 his second season but still averaged 16, 8, and 5. Guys with Amen's profile and upside are going to stay on the floor and get their minutes, and that alone goes a long way toward giving them a chance to develop the shot. Even Griffin eventually learned to shoot! I'm really starting to feel like a kid with his athleticism, feel for the game, and work ethic will probably figure something out. It could be kind of a strange career, and it's possible the lack of a jump shot will hold him back from superstardom if it never comes around. But we've seen guards be successful in the past without much of a jump shot--Rajon Rondo, Andre Miller, Rod Strickland. Gonna go out on a limb here and say I think Amen will be a rotation player in the NBA for a long time barring injury. You can @ me if I end up being wrong on it.
All right, while I'm making long posts about these guys, I also want to go over one more thing. I keep hearing people say Amen and Ausar didn't dominate enough in OTE since they were playing against high schoolers, but um... they kinda did dominate? They were only playing 27 minutes per game and both averaged over 16 points. Only 3 players in the NBA this season playing under 28mpg are averaging over 16ppg. On top of that, Amen added 6 assists and 6 rebounds while Ausar added 6 and 7. They were damn near averaging a triple-double per 36 minutes with 20+ points per 36 minutes. On top of all this: Remember, they didn't have to take a bunch of jump shots. They used up a lot of possessions and lowered their efficiency ratings a lot because they have their heads in the right place and they were playing to develop and improve, not put up huge numbers. They could easily have averaged over 20 points per game while playing only 27 minutes if they just stopped shooting outside shots and played to their strengths. But they both know they have to get better at shooting if they want to reach their potential for the NBA, so they took a ton of jumpers instead of always driving into the lane. And despite that, Amen finished the season with an excellent 57% FG% and a crazy 66% on 2-pointers. Ausar finished 48% from the field and 56.2% on 2-pointers (but this came with shooting more three-pointers at a higher percentage than Amen). They led their team to a championship and they did it posting big numbers while intentionally handicapping themselves in order to improve and develop as players. Yes, their competition was pretty bad, but they did dominate like they were supposed to.
I go back and forth depending on the day and whose tape I've watched most recently, haha. Ausar is safer and more well-rounded at this stage, better shot mechanics & 3P percentage, a bit more consistent defensively, more likely to actually be able to shoot in the NBA. Amen has better athleticism, better around the basket and a better passer, better chance at becoming a superstar #1 option type of player. Since it's so close, I'd go Amen if forced to choose, mainly because I see Ausar as a shooting guard and Amen as a point guard, and we already have Green. Also, I'm a sucker for upside.
Players in the NBA are playing vs NBA players. Scoring 16 ppg vs nba players is a pretty good feat as NBA players among top 400 players in the world. I dont consider 16 ppg in OTE dominating when you are 2 yrs older than everyone else and they also teamed up. If they were 16 going up against high schoolers ok that 16 ppg may make sense but not when they are 20 and some of their defenders only reach their chest (proven by video evidence). Amen and Ausar are 20, almost every other player there are 16-18 yrs old. Scoring high % is a given, ig they scored low percentage against kid younger than them they wouldnt even be seen as NBA prospects. Yeah leading their team to championship is a given who even else is a good rival to their team? Its not like NCAA you got all these power teams its just 20 yr old Twins vs high schoolers. Just think if you took Paolo Banchero next year and made him play vs High school seniors you think 16 ppg is a good result yes or no? Answer that first then tell me again why Amen scoring 16 ppg is proof of them dominating. I feel like you are too attached to the Twins you convince yourself and forget the facts of the situation. Personally I dont care if the Twins succeed or not I'm just saying there are lots of red flags on them. Maybe they turn out to be franchise players like Lamelo or Edwards I mean those guys also had lots of red flags during draft. But these red flags still exist esp cuz they played in a joke league.
I honestly think if they were just playing for themselves and trying to light up their scoreboard they would easily have scored around 25 points in 27 minutes apiece (which is something like 33 points per 36 minutes). They didn't have to pass so much and get their teammates involved so much, they didn't have to take so many three pointers and mid/long range jumpers. They were doing those things in order to improve their entire skillset because they're looking to the future and trying to become great NBA players. Their scoring output and overall efficiency numbers are actually phenomenal when you consider how many three pointers they were taking. If they were in the NBA under a decent coach they would be taking almost zero three pointers at this stage, especially Amen.
In any case, don't be surprised to see the Rockets take Amen if they fall outside the top 2 and he's available. They like upside and athleticism and he's got them in spades, and is right there with Miller in terms of draft value according the boards I've seen--very interchangeable at #3 based on which analyst you're looking at.
I agree, based on potential alone the Twins potential is 2nd behind Wemby. Personally just dont like guards who cant shoot. As we have seen with Ousmane Dieng, Killian Hayes, Suggs etc it gets real hard to be effective on the perimeter if you cant shoot. But what do I know, I'll just trust Stone and his crew they have done a good job drafting so far.
Isnt Ausar a playmaker as well and wanst he the MVP this year? Perhaps Ausar can play either position but just plays sg in consideration of his more limted brother. I dunno how a guard who cant shoot becomes the no 1 option I dont think I've ever seen that happen before so I'm surprised you think Amen has more star power than Ausar. Ausar can be the Jalen Williams of his draft class imo.
Agreed. But I think what separates Amen from those examples is the on-ball athleticism. Despite having rudimentary handles and sagging defenders begging him to shoot, he's still getting into the paint. Dieng and Hayes were never really driving threats, and Suggs isn't the same level of athlete. The hope is that a more developed handle and better spacing allows Amen to get paint touches at will against NBA defenses, creating windows for passing and finishing. To be effective he's gonna need the ball in his hands at all times, which could get really messy early on. He's gonna need a patient FO and smart coaching staff which I'm not sure the Rockets have. I still think he's the most interesting prospect behind Victor and Scoot though.
He is getting to the paint cuz he is 20 and his defenders are 15-18 yrs old. Him and Ausar run that league they are taller, more talented, skilled and experienced than anyone on OTE thats why I'm not impressed with their highlights. Like if you took Paolo Banchero next year and put him in OTE guarantee he'd do more than 16/6. Between the 2 I think Ausar is more interesting cuz unlike his bro he has no glaring visible weakness and only strengths. I wonder how much playing Amen is holding him back like people seem to pigeon hole him as an SG but from what I've seen dude can also pass and playmake. Its possible he is just focusing on sg so Amen can have a role.
I just don't think this is really true. Age range in OTE is actually 16-21 IIRC, and most players are right around the age of college freshmen. Most players also appear to be about the height of division I college players because they've specifically chosen promising athletes to enroll in the program. Where the competition level falls versus Division I is actually really hard to determine right now. It's almost certainly lower, but whether it's just slightly lower or a lot lower is hard to say. But even setting that aside, you can project Amen's ability to get into the paint just by looking at his quickness and explosiveness as an athlete, which is objectively the best in this entire draft class. His success rate will obviously drop against NBA defenders but that's okay--nobody expects him to finish 66% of his 2P attempts in the NBA, that's just ridiculous. He can still be very successful though given his athleticism, solid handles, and very good finishing abilities around the rim (he's not just a dunker, he finds great angles for layups and has a solid touch). With all of that said I do think, to your point, it's very debatable which player is better between Ausar and Amen. One difference is that Amen Thompson entering the league is instantly one of the three or four most athletic players in the NBA. Ausar is more like top 30 or so. It's the difference between like, prime D-Rose and Jimmy Butler, just to throw out some comps. Both very athletic, but one is like top 1% and the other is like top 5%. Amen also displays better passing and on-ball skills. Scouts widely believe he is the better playmaker of the two, and this showed out in the OTE playoffs when Amen averaged over 9.2 assists per game while Ausar only averaged 6.1. But Ausar is more likely develop a jump shot, and that does make a big dfiference. For me, Ausar is a wing in the NBA and Amen is a point guard. Amen is more likely to become a 1A superstar but also less likely to get to an all-star game at all. Ausar is a safer bet but I think his ceiling is just a bit lower due to athleticism and him being more of an off-the-ball guy. Since it's so incredibly close, I tend to lean toward the upside for the Rockets, and I also tend to lean toward a point guard since that's arguably our biggest organizational need.
https://www.streetopia.me/m/news/6075d72cfea8ff01144ba67f/the-concept-of-overtime-elite-league#:~:text=Overtime Elite is a new,elite among the youngest talents. It says here they get talent between 16 and 18. If there were guys 21 and up why arent they in draft boards if they're supposed to be promising athletes? Twins are the only NBA prospects from what I've seen. Ausar and Amen havent tested in the combine so I dunno how athletic they are or how you can say someone is top 30 and someone is top 3? Like can you show me clips of Amen doing the behind the back 360 dunks Zion does? Thats what it would take to be top 3 imo. I just think top 3 or even top 10 is a bold claim just based on eye tests esp when they up against younger guys or nobodies.
They were tested for OTE, for example Amen was reported as having a 40+ inch vertical leap. If you watch clips of him you will see his head is regularly threatening to hit the rim when he jumps. He's an effortless jumper too, you're not talking about him standing there winding up off of two feet, you're talking about transition dunks/drives from the half court.
Amen has always been thought of higher than Ausar because he was considered the better scorer, the better ballhandler, and a slightly better athlete. Ausar was considered a better defender. Neither one of them could really shoot. This past season, that kind of changed in that Ausar showed improvement in shooting. Most people I think still regard Amen as the better player, though, despite the fact the gap seemed to have closed this season.
I mentioned this in one of the other threads, but they were both tested at the OE pro day. How valid those are, I don't know, but Ausar had a 38" vertical and Amen had a 40" vertical. Their 3/4 sprint, shuttle, times etc. were ridiculous even by NBA standards. Either you cast some doubt on the numbers because.... OE... or you just say "damn!" because they were that good.
