It's true he's not allowed many runs since going to Chicago (2 ER in about 10 IP) but his peripherals don't suggest he will maintain anything close to that level of pitching ... more likely we have a guy with an ERA of 4.50 to 5.00 with the Astros from now till the end of the season. I get that he is more experienced than Hoyt, but I expect Hoyt to maintain an ERA of about 3.50 from now till season's end. Maybe Clipart is perceived as more playoff-ready but really, I'm seriously underwhelmed with this move.
Maybe they traded Singleton for him. Or maybe they included Sipp along with an actual prospect. Or maybe it's just a cash deal. But if they gave up anything of value it's an overpay.
Maybe it's recency or confirmation bias talking here, but I think it's an underrated move. He's a veteran and should provide a measure of stability (and hopefully energy) to a bullpen that needs it. His numbers have also been pretty good in the 2nd half the last season or two.
It is post July 31st, I suspect it is very hard to get relievers at this point as they are likely claimed on waivers. When you start looking around the league, there isn't much out there. The Astros already whiffed at the deadline and are trying to see what they can do post deadline. I don't expect him to be an all star again but he is as good or better than some of the garbage we have been running out there. I am sure ANYONE that clears waivers and is out of the pen will be pursued if they have any track record of success and don't have a contract like Melancon.
On what planet do you expect Hoyt to maintain a 3.50 ERA? He's given up runs in 7 of his last 8 appearances. There are valid reasons to second guess this trade. Worrying that James Hoyt will outperform Clippard is not one of them.
The Astros gave up nothing for him. I don't think there are valid reasons to second guess this trade. Right now the pen is so suspect that the closer had to go two innings today in a one run game.
I agree with you, I like the move. If we get the same Clippard who has been pitching for the White Sox, then this is a fantastic move. I'm just saying that (while I don't agree) I understand if some people are skeptical due to his struggles with the Yankees, but trying to argue that someone like Hoyt may be more reliable is an insane argument.
maybe I'm putting too much faith in the predictive stats like xFIP. I say this seriously, not sarcastically. i might well be trusting the predictive algorithms too much. But to my subjective eye test, Hoyt looks better too in comparison with a few weeks ago. and I still recall how awesome he was when he first came up with the Astros this year.... maybe i'm being too much of an optimist to think he can find that groove again. But Hoyt is sitting on an xFIP of 2.83 for the season (and 4.12 for the period of July+August) whereas Clipart's xFIP is 4.81 and that's been the same for him both at the Yankees and at the ChiSox this year. And, unless I'm reading the game logs incorrectly, Hoyt's last five appearances have been scoreless. Going back to July 2, 10 of his last 12 appearances have been scoreless. That's one reason it's seemed to me he is finding his early-season mojo. But in the end, it cost the Astros very little to get Clipart and he'll probably pitch alongside Hoyt, not instead of him. I bet it's Guduan who gets sent to Fresno as a result of this move. And I definitely like the idea of Hoyt+Clipart over Hoyt+Guduan.
Tyler very well may prove to be mediocre but he cost them nothing. Hoyt has a lot of talent, far more than Tyler, but he has been given lots of chances and as the season has worn on, has become a disaster.
Whoops you are correct, I was looking at older game logs. My fault. Our bullpen was so bad in July that I've forgotten who did what specifically. And your last sentence is pretty much where I sit. Clippard will most likely not be our best bullpen arm, but he is surely an improvement over our worst.
Personally, I do not know what Hoyt's ERA is going to be the rest of the season, but if I wanted to venture a guess, I would start by looking at his FIP which is currently 3.00. Then I would look at the more predictive stats like xFIP (2.83) and SIERRA (2.49). Finally I would look at ROS ERA projections: ZIPS (3.23), Streamer (3.29), and Depth Charts (3.26). Finally , I would look at his RE24, which does not fair as well as the other stats at -2.95. Based on all of that, if I was a betting man, I would say that there is a better than even chance he will maintain an ERA of 3.50 or better for the rest of the season. So, to answer your question, the planet would be Earth.
Hoyt has mostly been in low leverage, no pressure situations. Granted, he wasn't doing well in even those situations earlier. At this point, the only important arms in the bullpen they need clicking are Giles, Devo, Harris, Gregerson, Lefty (whoever that may be) and I suppose now Clippard. That's more than enough to do well in a short series.
Will be interesting to see. Here's how I look at Houstons pitching staff: ToR SP: Keuchel, McCullers MoR/BoR SP: McHugh, Morton, Fiers, Peacock Upside youngsters: Martes, Musgrove Former glory: Sipp, Liriano, Clippard, Gregerson Elite relievers: Devenski, Harris, Giles Wild cards: Feliz, Hoyt Non-factors: Diaz, Guduan, Gustave, Jankowski, Rodgers Pretty obvious Guduan will be going down for Clippard. But once McCullers, Sipp, and Harris come back there will be some tough calls.
Gotta get Devo some paid time off so he's ready for the playoffs. Add Clippard, a guy like Blevins,a healthy and a rested Devo and I will take my chances with the starting pitching already on hand. Of course if the Tigers want to pay next yrs Verlander salary (Doubtful then Luhnow would be all over that. IMHO
