As a homer who goes into every season thinking we have a atleast a shot I will try to be objective and list the teams who are better/worse and in the same boat as the stros. Teams that the Astros are clearly better than KC, Tampa, Wash, Balt, Pitt, Colorado, Seattle, Arizona, Texas, Cinci, Fla, Mil (they are better now but still come on) Teams that are better NYY, NYM, Boston, Chi White Sox, Cubs, LAD, LAA, St Louis, Detroit, San Fran, OAK, Minn. Teams on the same level San Diego, Toranto, Phili, Atl (reputation), Clevland This put the Astros in the middle of the pack but with only 5 teams IMO better in the NL the Stros could very well be back in the playoffs if things break right. Let's assume NYM, St Loius and San Fran win the divisions that leaves the LAD, Astros, Cubs and Padres fighting it out for the wildcard. We went 82-80 last season (a team I think underachived a few games even with the late run) I see us being a 85-87 win team this season but if things break right 90 wins and a playoff birth could come our way. We have had an up and down offseason and go into spring training with many question marks but as the free agent period winds down I think there is room for hope in 2007. I have faith if we are in it we can make a move or two. Do I think we will win a world series? NO This is not a championship team but a few more moves could make things intresting and as St Louis proved last season a flawed team can win in baseball because it's all about how things come together in October. I'm going to Spring training this season for the first time ever and while I can't call my team favorites I can hold on to hope that this will be a playoff team.
What makes the Cubs and Giants better than the Astros? Cubs have offense but only one good starting pitcher and the Giants are old.
I think we have a decent shot at making the playoffs this year. Our pitching staff went down a little bit, but our hitting has improved with Lee and now Lortetta. If we get a good #4 pitcher, or a #3 pitcher (move woody down one spot), I'd feel more comfortable. We did depend on our pitchers a lot the last couple of seasons, but I also felt like our pitching last year wasn't nearly as good the year before, but we were able to score more runs.
I'm not the Cubs rotation is much different from the Astros. One solid superstar and a bunch of questionmarks behind him. Ours are Jennings and Williams with two nobodies. They have Lilly and Marquis with two nobodies. I'm not sure what the status of Prior/Wood is. Ours were better last season, but theirs have been better over the last several.
I feel that Jennings has more upside than Lilly (not to mention that the Cubs overpaid), coming from a good pitching season. Having a our 4 and 5 spot open might actually do us some good this year (of course I rather have what is certain and sign/trade for another pitcher, but we'll see) being able to groom our rookies. Who knows, maybe we'll get lucky and have a Francisco Liriano.
we should just stick to assessing our team objectively rather than trying to compare where we fall in the entire league...
I agree. At this point, it's hard enough to say where our team is on its own.. just because there are so many question marks (who will fill the back of the rotation & how much they will have improved...how Burke will handle a full season and defense in the OF...where Loretta will play and how much...whether Ensberg can return to form...whether Scott can hold his 2nd half performance..etc.) Now if you try and rank the Astros within the entire league...you're trying to evaluate all of those types of questions for us...AND for each and every other team in the league. It's pretty impossible to judge for now.. gotta at least wait until mid-spring training to make this kind of evaluation with any sort of accuracy. For now, I think everyone will just say something like "we probably have a good shot at the playoffs" or "I think we can do it"...but you're just as likely to think that off homerism and/or track record than anything else.
good point we still have a catcher that can't hit, and should be calling the pitches from the bench. a ss that can't hit, but good defense. a 2nd that is well past his prime. we don't even know what to expect at 3rd. a question mark at every pitching spot other than O. the bullpen is the same, meaning it's still a huge concern.... the good? berkman, and lee. oh and our backups/utils can beat any other team's backups/utils. the offseason has been better than prior offseasons, but this is still an 80-85 win team. i'm just glad we're in the NL, cause that means 85 is usually good enough to challenge for a spot.
OK fair enough Above Avg Pitching (not great but better than most) Avg lineup (If things break right maybe slightly above avg) Below Avg Speed Avg D (infield above avg, outfield below, reserves average at best) Intangebles Average, 2 great players (Roy O and Puma) below avg manager in Garner but give him credit in keeping a loose clubhouse. No team speed but good baserunners. IMHO To be a good team we need to be great at something, ie pitching the last few years. Our lineup is better but our staff is not as good so I think the best way the stros can become elite is to bolster their starting rotation and hope the lineup reaches it's potential and pray Lidge, Wheeler and Qualls are great. 1 stud pitcher and a speedster is what we need, in addition to some breaks. This is why I hated seeing Willy T go
I agree with just about everything you said, the stros are a 500 team at best in the AL and a 85 win team in the NL but I think with some breaks and a big trade deadline deal we could win 90+ and either win the division or get the wild card.
Asking these types of questions before about June 1st is pretty pointless. Assemble Evaluate Adjust They ain't even done with the first step.
i'd put the bullpen in the good. besides qualls and lidge ruining about 10 games, there werent many better overall pens in the league. lidge cant be any worse than he was last year (can he?), and sampson should be a great addition. agree with pretty much everything else though (although i'm inclined to think luke is legit). as the team stands now, i have no expectations this year. just gonna enjoy watching, and not live and die with every pitch like the past few seasons. hopefully, come september, i'll be pleasantly surprised and can sweat out a playoff bid. hate to keep repeating myself on threads, but until we are rid of the cancers that are brad ausmus and craig biggio, our offense will always be awful. i'm very excited about 2008 and beyond though.
I say the same thing every year and then opening day comes along and there I am sweating it out again. God I love baseball!!
hehe. so true. it's fun tricking ourselves into thinking we aren't going to give that much of **** how we do though, aint it?
I agree that we need to be great at something--and you're right, bullpen is our best shot right now. If nothign else, being great just to *know* that you can rely on something no matter what. (besides RoyO every 5th day) I don't know how you can say Garner is below-average as a manager. If nothing else, he's average--he's done well enough to deserve average even if you put all the talent in the world on the team. Also, I don't see why we need a speedster. What does one fast guy do to this team? Without team speed as one of the main attributes, I don't know that one guy can change much...so I'd rather look for other qualities than that.
Vince Young can bat 10.500 (by virtue of raising everybody else's percentages) and has an ERA of 1.2e-38. He has a 245mph fast ball and can hit 300 home runs with a range of up to 2 miles.
