<a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/2002/spring_training/news/2002/03/10/ward_astros/">http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/2002/spring_training/news/2002/03/10/ward_astros/</a> <FONT face="arial" size="4"><B>A backup no more</B></FONT> <B>With the way finally clear, Houston's Ward ready to shine</B> <I>By John Donovan, CNNSI.com</I> KISSIMMEE, Fla. -- Daryle Ward's name popped up all the time. It seemed like every time somebody talked to Houston Astros general manager Gerry Hunsicker about a trade, or more times than Hunsicker can count, anyway, Ward's name was right there on the top of the other guy's wish list. Hunsicker was tempted. Once. He wouldn't say who the other GM was, or who he was offering. But the deal wasn't good enough in the end, so Ward stayed in Houston, on the bench, waiting for his turn to crack the starting lineup. Whip ahead to Spring 2002. The Astros, back in their Central Florida training site just down the road from Disney World, have a new manager, Jimy Williams. They have a new name for their ballpark back in Texas. And Ward, the backup too valuable for the Astros to part with, finally is getting off the bench. "The first time I saw him play Double-A baseball, when I traded for him [at the end of 1996], I knew he could play," Hunsicker was saying the other day, recalling his first encounter with Ward. "I liked his swing. It's such a natural swing. He showed a lot of maturity for a young hitter, too. And the ball just jumped off his bat." As good as Ward was back then, and as good as the Astros think he will be, he simply hasn't been good enough to earn a steady job in a deep and talented Astros' outfield. When he finally made the big leagues to stay, midway through the 1999 season, Carl Everett, Richard Hidalgo, Derek Bell and Moises Alou all were fighting for time in the Astros outfield. Everett and Bell are long gone, but last year Lance Berkman -- who had been behind Ward in the minor-league pecking order -- jumped ahead of him, hitting .331 with 34 homers and 126 RBIs on his way to the All-Star Game. Ward ended up, once again, a backup, playing in 95 games mainly when someone else needed a break or was injured. He hit .263, with nine homers and 39 RBIs in only 213 at-bats. "Even being on the team and coming off the bench is fun. But it is hard," says Ward with a quiet smile. "You don't know when you're going to play, so you get up and down and up and down … it's tough. You have to be ready." Hunsicker, of course, had a plan for Ward all along. Alou was an All-Star in 2001, but he was due to be a free agent at the end of the season. The Astros also had some other high-priced business they had to take care of, including signing closer Billy Wagner. So when it came time, the Astros locked up Wagner with a big deal while Alou left for the Chicago Cubs. Just like that, Ward's time had come. "We expect," says Hunsicker, "that in the next 2-3 years, he will emerge as one of the best power-hitters in the game." Berkman has said that Ward is the best hitter he's every played with, likening him to the New York Mets' Mo Vaughn in the way he's so quick with the bat. Ward is a left-handed hitter who uses the whole field and who has the power to easily hit 30 homers. He hit .308 against lefties last year, and he's a career .295 hitter against left-handers. "He's going to hit. He's just a really good hitter," Berkman says. "He's got the quickest hands I've ever seen. He sees the ball such a long time. His hands are so quick, he can wait on it." The biggest question the Astros have about Ward is how he will handle playing every day. There may be a worry or two about his defense, too, one of the reasons Berkman beat him to a full-time job in the first place. But the Astros believe enough in Ward's ability to hit and be a big run producer that they'll take any shortcomings in the outfield. As long as he can produce over the long haul of the season. "I really don’t know what to expect. One hundred and sixty two games is a little different," says Ward. "There's a lot of things that can happen. You have to prepare for everything. "I'm excited about it. It's just not in my personality to show it." Ward, 26, is as low-key a player as there is in baseball. He's been around the game since he was little -- his father, Gary, played for 12 years in the majors -- so even though he's not been a regular, he knows what's going on. It's inevitable that he'll be looked at as the man who replaces Alou, a four-time All-Star who hit .331 last season with 27 home runs and 108 RBIs in 136 games and has driven in more than 100 runs in each of the past four years. As long as he's healthy and produces, Ward figures to play 40, 50, maybe even 60 or more games than he did last season. The Astros won't say they want Alou-like numbers from him. But they know he's capable of them. Ward, with a smile, is fine with the comparisons. "That's part of baseball. I kind of like that pressure," he says. "Moises Alou has a lot of experience in this game. I think I'm beginning to get some." It took a while. But starting on Opening Day, Ward is a backup no more.
this team loses in the playoffs because they can't scratch out runs when they need to. we have a group of power hitters who strike out way too often, particularly against good power pitchers, which you're likely to see in the playoffs. a guy like ward just adds to that problem, in my view. i would have done everything i could to grab a legit CF with a high on-base and some speed on the basepaths and out in the largest CF in all of baseball. and the next guy in line is jason lane??? geez, we will ever get speed on the basepaths, or are we going to try to win by overpowering teams forever?? how about some balance in the lineup, please??? i LOVE the 'stros!!! they've been my fave sports franchise for years and years...but this problem of not being able to move runners over and sacrifice when necessary is killing me.
Overpowering teams is the most effective way to win, like it or not. While "scratching out runs" might seem appealing, such teams don't necessarily win games. Believe it or not, power doesn't simply disappear in the playoffs. And it doesn't magically become easier to steal a base, either. The Astros haven't won in the post-season because: A. Before this year, Bagwell adn Biggio and the gang disappeared. If you don't get on base, you can't display "skill on the base paths." B. This year, Bagwell hit fine, but most of the team sucked. C. Dierker was an idiot. D. Injuries. Deprive most teams of their staff ace... see how they do. E. While Astros fans like to think that all 4 playoff losses were a result of bad luck, in truth... twice, our team wasn't favored even in the first series. Arguing that the Astros lose because they rely on power over speed, is like saying that the Astros lose because their two best players have last names that start with the letter B. Their losses have absolutely nothing to do with the situation. If what you say is true, then power teams would traditionally fair poorly in the playoffs, and this simply isn't true. PS. Guess which team won the WS this last year? Arizona. Know how many SBs they had? Try 71. That ranks near the bottom of the NL in stolen bases. Their slugging % incidentally, was 4th in the NL... with the Astros and Colorado both in significantly more friendly hitter's parks ahead of them. Bottom line: It doesn't matter how you score runs. It just matters that, somehow, you get around the basepaths.
haven -- I don't entirely disagree with your post...the problem is that the Arizona Diamondbacks WERE able to scratch out runs in the playoffs last year...just like the Yankees did to get to the World Series. The Astros are hit or miss...they're either knocking the ball around the park or they're striking out. Recently, Lance Berkman said, "Why does it matter if I strike out a lot or not if I'm hitting .350??" That statement kills me!!!! Because when you put the ball in play, Lance, you have SOME chance of the other team making a mistake...you have SOME chance of moving a runner over into scoring position. Hell, I learned that in junior high baseball!!! These guys sit back and wait on big innings...that simply doesn't win in the playoffs against the great pitchers. While I agree, a run is a run...playoff baseball is different from regular season baseball...and scoring runs the way the Astros do is much harder to do in the playoffs than merely getting on base, bunting and moving runners over. It's real easy to hit homeruns off and extra-base hits off the Pirates' pitching staff in June...much harder to do so against the Braves' pitching staff in the playoffs. And a team that is so committed to playing long ball is naturally going to strike out more than a team that's got some contact hitters mixed in the lineup....strikeouts have killed this team in the playoffs. Granted...2 years (i assume you mean 97 and 99) we weren't favored...but that doesn't mean you don't show up!!! If they get beat, that's fine....but getting beat the way they get beat in the playoffs is embarassing. What does losing your ace have to do at all with any of the above??? They had their ace 3 of the 4 years they were in the playoffs....last year, they didn't win because there was no Oswalt...they lost because they couldn't scratch out a measly one run when Mlicki was on the mound here in Houston...they lost because they couldn't get a soul on base.
God, I hope Daryle Ward works out, but I am quite sure he won't work out if Jimah Williams insists on batting him second during the regular season as he has done this spring. Seems like every time I read the logs of games where he bats second, he gets at least one or two GIDP behind a good hit or walk by Bidge. The man is just too slow to bat 2nd, and if he can't keep the ball off the ground in the infield, then Biggio is going to have to take out a LOT of middle infielders on breakup slides this season. Hopefully with consistent ABs, Ward will find his consistent swing and become the hitter the Astros brass has touted him as.
Ummm... actually... strikeouts are almost... completely... irrelevant. Yes, there's a chance the other team will commit an error. But there's also a chance of a double play. Statistically, it's almost a complete wash. We know this, because the "runs created" forumula works to almost perfectly calculate the # of runs that the average team will generate in a year, given their various hitting stats (walks, homers, doubles, etc). Strikeouts barely make a difference. Moreover, look at teams that have won. You don't find that striking out is significant. Most of the best hitters in baseball, actually, strikeout frequently. Contact hitters are, generally, mediocre. Tony Gwynn versus Barry Bonds, etc (no, Gwynn wasn't mediocre... but when he's the "epitome" of a contact hitter, you see the weakness of the genre as opposed to the Bonds-type that hits homers, walks, and strikes out). You seem to care about getting on base. This is a valid concern. But you're overlooking the key: walks. Successful hitters strike out... but they also walk. Rather than look at how many times a guy whiff, a better idea is lookign at his BB/K ratio. Billy Beane, probably the best GM in baseball, has publicly stated he doesn't care about K's, incidentally. He wants walks and power. No, K's haven't. Not getting on base has killed the team. Sometime, look at the success of teams that K a lot. They do fine. Even in the playoffs. Teams that do not get on base, do not. And high K #'s have almost nothing to do with getting on base... just look at a list of the game's best hitters. Yeah, they've had bad luck. You're confusing the issue, again. Please separate the "getting on base" argument, which is good... from the "striking out" argument, which is remarkably, atrociously bad. Losing Oswalt is important... because this was the first year that Bagwell actually got on base. I was simply listing a variety of factors that haven't gone the Astros way. They probably wouldn't have won, even with him... but it was still terrible luck.
If Ward is pulling those grounders, it might not be so bad. There is a huge hole on the right side if Biggio is on first. This could help Ward's BA some. Yeah Ward being slow is going to get him some GIDP, but his being lefthanded will get lots of runners on the corners. If he can get his BA up, Bagwell will have someone to drive in more. I originally was opposed to Ward batting 2nd, but now I'm of the I need to see him bat.
Damn Joe Joe, you make some very good points. I had not thought about the advantages of Ward being left handed. To be honest, I think the GIDP stat for the spring is a statistical anomaly. From what I saw of Ward in previous seasons, he is more of a flyball power hitter. Hitting in the 2nd spot in the lineup will be an interesting experiment, but considering the alternatives there are likely guys like Adam Everett, Julio Lugo and Brad Ausmus, Ward's production at that spot might just be the best choice.
I ride the fence on this debate. On the one hand, I completely agree with haven that strikeouts, per se, don't hurt a team. With nobody on, an out is an out. With men on base, there are "good" outs that advance the runner, like a sac fly, and "bad" outs that don't - strikeouts, foul pops, ground ball to the second base that fails to advance anyone. The strikeout is stigmatized more than the other "bad" outs, for no particular reason. That said, I would like to see more fundamental baseball out of our players. Sometimes, the better percentage play is to lay down a sac bunt in the late innings. Most of the current Stros are incapable. Quite often, there are opportunities to take the extra base, going from first to third on a single or scoring from third on a fairly shallow fly ball to center. Not having speed on your team means that you can't take advantage of those opportunities, and those can come back to bite you in a close ballgame. I think there's no way DW should be batting 2nd. Bat him 5th or 6th or 7th, where he can drive in runs with the long ball: his real strength. In the 2 spot he's going to ground into far too many double plays (an absolute inning-killer), and when he does hit a home run it's going to be at best 2 runs (instead of a possible 3 or 4 later in the order).
haven -- sorry...i just disagree...in my experience in the game of baseball, getting the bat on the ball is better than striking out. and almost every baseball coach in america (billy beane nothwithstanding!) will tell you the same thing. it's not merely because players might make an error...it's because it might also move a runner over. i'll grant you on-base percentage is huge...and a walk is extremely important. you say this team hasn't gotten on base, and that's their problem...i agree...i just take it one step further..they don't get on base because they strikeout...and then when they do get someone on base, they strikeout and are completely unable to move the runner over or bring him home. I will grant you that having sluggers on your team is great...but teams need a mix in their lineup. that's what the astros lack. when you're looking for your 2 hitter to be a big swinger, you've got problems. they're whole lineup is hit or miss...that's a problem come playoff time...it's been a problem. bad luck??....being completely stymied at the plate everytime they've made the playoffs is a trend. has nothing to do with luck. when the same players perform the exact same way over and over again in similar situations, it's not a matter of luck. i love these guys, but i'm not blind to their shortcomings.
But you're wrong at the prima facie level! If you're right... how the hell do most of the "great hitters" strike out quite often? Bonds, Bagwell, McGwire, A-Rod, Griffey... or older guys like frickin' Babe Ruth! These people aren't contact hitters. And incidentally, once upon a time... a K was considered far worse than a groundout. This myth is being dispelled, however. Even non-forward thinking organizations are even beginning to admit this. Let's look at the teams that made the playoffs last year. Yankees - 1035 K's. Oakland 1021 K's Cleveland - 1076 K's Seattle - 989 K's Arizona - 1052 K's St. Louis - 1089 K's Houston 1119 K's Atlanta 1039K's Incidentally, guess which team had the fewest? That terrific ball club, Kansas City at 889. There really isn't a pattern among the K's. They pretty much range the gambit from Seattle, tied for 2nd... and Houston, one of the worst at striking out. However, why don't we look at walks and playoff teams? Seattle - 614 New York - 519 Oakland -640 Cleveland - 577 Arizona - 587 St. Louis - 529 Houston - 581 Atlanta - 493 These teams tend to have done very well, versus the rest of the leagues, in terms of walks. Almost all of the bottom feeders were in the mid-400's. So what do we know? Last year, there was not a strong correllation between success and striking out. However, there was a strong correllation between success and walking. But you're already wrong! Bagwell sucked his first 3 playoff series... and was great in his 4th!
The playoffs are all about run manufacturing. The Yanks haven't had a big-time power hitter for a long time, though they now have Giambi. The D'Backs basically sac bunted their way to scoring 90% of their runs. This is really the only way to score off the ace pitchers who you face every night in the playoffs. These pitchers go 110% on every pitch, knowing that 1 mistake could mean the end of the season. Getting a HR off an ace pitcher is very rare in the playoffs. Pitching and defense are what wins in the playoffs. The A's lost to the Yanks because they made stupid mistakes on defense. Hitting HR's is nice, but it's not worth it, if you strike out 5 times for every HR you hit.
In the playoffs, hitters are at the mercy of the pitcher. Therefore, you have to take what the pitcher gives you. And a pitcher will not give you a fastball down the middle. The HR ball in the playoffs is probably the biggest momentum swinger of anything else.
For some interesting strikeout info, read Rob Neyer's column from 02/01/2002: You can find it in his February archives here: http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/2002/0206/1323868.html It is the column at the very bottom.
What that article (good article BTW) fails to account for is how well the higher strikeout teams perform in October. In the regular season, of course high strikeout teams will score a lot runs, mainly because they are usually the ones who lead the league in HRs. In the postseason, it's ok to get out. It's not ok to fail to move a crucial baserunner over. Also, a high strikeout team doesn't allow a manger the freedom of calling a hit and run play, something that is vital to manufacturing runs. The only "positive" to striking out a lot, is that you generally avoid double plays, unless you call a hit and run, and it's a strike out throw em out DP.
Ward has a low Ground ball to Flyball ratio at .92. He has only grounded into 12 double plays for his career which is good considering his atbats. Not Biggio esque, but considering Ward's speed not bad at all. I was looking at his hit chart on ESPN.com and nearly two thirds of his ground outs were to the right side (not counting to the pitcher which is a DP no matter who you are and I can't count very well) with the majority of those between the 1st baseman and 2nd baseman. So, if Biggio was on, a lot of Ward's ground outs would advance him on an out or make it thru the hole. Ward also has a good number of deep fly ball outs to right field. This means Biggio when on second can move to third more easily. Thus Bagwell would only need a flyball to score Biggio. Ward gets more hits to the right field so Biggio going first to third will be easier. Ward does a good job spreading it around, but is still a pull hitter to some degree. Does hitting into a double play at the five spot end an inning any less?
Interesting analysis, Joe^2. The groundball/flyball ratio doesn't tell me much by itself, because my basis for his GIDP potential was based on his serious lack of speed which would let teams get the out at 2nd and still have a good shot at getting him at first. The low number of GIDPs in his career is interesting, though (relatively limited at bats, but still statistically relevant). I can see the benefit of having a lefty pull hitter in that spot - but I still think Ward would be much more valuable further down in the order. Does hitting into a double play at the five spot end an inning any less? No, not as such. BUT, if you end an inning at the 2 spot, you're depriving superstar sluggers like Bagwell and Berkman of RBI opportunities. If you end the inning at the 5 spot, you're depriving guys like Chris Truby and Adam Everett of the opportunity. The value lost is not equal.
I personally like the idea because lugo sucks in the 2 hole and everett should be the 9 hitter. I think either ensberg or ward are better options at that spot, because they will get on base more.
I'm not so sure that Ward would get on base much more than Lugo. Ward is basically the same as Lugo, except that he can hit HRs. They both have poor BB to K ratios. None of them are ideal #2 hitters. Last year, I wouldn't have blamed Dierker for inserting Alou at the #2 spot. He would get plenty of pitches to hit with Baggy behind him, and Alou would almost definitely put the ball in play. Although his slow wheels would have meant an automatic DP if he hit the ball on the ground.
VERY stat-based look at the impact of stikeouts on a team's offense: http://www.astrosconnection.com/html/crunchtime.cfm?id=248 Also, it's Spring Training, don't read too much into Ward hitting 2nd just yet.
