That's crazy talk! If you're talking on-field, Young has a ton more upside than Pence. I think Pence will eventually settle somewhere between last year and this year, which is a nice player certainly. But Young played 162 games last season and held his own in the bigs - as a 21-year old! The only argument that I can see in Pence's favor is the risk that Young will do something off the field that will impact his performance. Accounting for that risk, I'd still take Young in a heartbeat.
I guess more accurately speaking, I should have mentioned that I was speaking more to long-term value. Pence is the better player right now (assuming he rebounds, which I think he will), but long-term, I think Young's the better value.
Pence's numbers last year were similar, if not better than Young. Extrapolated out to 162 games, Pence would have had 22 hr's & 91 rbi, with a .322 average. Young had 13/93/.288. This year, Pence is better. IMO, the only think D Young has over Pence is age. I'm probably a bit of a homer on this, but if you assume stats are roughly equal, I'm going to take Pence every day.
Being younger is a big deal. Delmon Young has more upside than Pence. Young also has shown more play discipline this year than Pence. While Pence is better this year (OPS) it's only a marginal difference. Young is projected to develop the power that Pence has on him right now. I'd take Pence over Young because I think Pence is more likely to stay healthy and focused and reach his full potential than Young.
The difference between a 22-yr old and a 25-yr old in baseball is huge compared to the difference between a 29-yr old and 32-yr old. Young was playing every day in the majors at the same age that Pence was still playing at UTA. I'm not saying that it's a slam dunk that Pence won't have a better career than Young, but the kind of players that advance at the pace that Young has are quite often superstars - not always, mind you. Young still has enough crazy rattling around in his head to derail the whole thing, but he has the chance to be a special player. Pence, IMO, will never be more than good but not great.
I'm not sure how you come to that absolute conclusion about Pence. Just because he didn't come up until he was 24? At this point in their careers, they have almost identical stats. If anything, Young has taken a much larger step backwards than Pence has. Where did his power go? 4 hr in 403 ab's? .390 SLG? Yes, their OPS are basically the same, based on Pence's lower OBP. That is important, but won't most teams not called the A's sacrifice some OBP for a guy that is supposed to hit the ball out of the yard? Pence has shown power to all fields. His defense is improving. His patience is improving (he's not diving at that outside slider as much any more). I think Delmon Young has a chance to be a special player. I just don't see how you come to this conclusion that Pence doesn't have that same chance. [EDIT] As I typed this, Pence hit a 2 run hr (his 16th w/ 59 rbi) in the 10th to give the Astros a 9-5 lead.
And Young is currently 22 and has 2 full seasons of major league AB under his belt. The point I was trying to make earlier was that Young was playing full-time in the majors at age 20 while at the same age, Pence was still in college.
I've not come to any absolute conclusions, and purposefully include words like 'probably' and 'likely' in my discussion. Based on a many decades of history, players that arrive in their early 20's are better than players that arrive in their mid to late 20's. Is it 100% guaranteed? No, but I've never said as such. Batters tend to peak around their age 27-28 season. Pence is closer to that age than Young is, which means that he's probably closer to peaking than Young. You can't simply look at 22-year old Player A and say that 25-yr old Player B is going to be better because he has better numbers. Because of player development arcs, it doesn't work like that.
