Just another post on how closers are overrated... My A's have had three different closers over the past three years and no team has won more games over that span. Each time those guys wanted more money, we showed them the door. Why? Because there's always another arm out there. The great thing about the Astros is that they already have someone to take that role: Dotel. And if he doesn't succeed, there's a good chance to trade for an established closer (look at who moved this year: Kim, Williams, Williamson, Urbina, Benitez). I do think the Astros could have gotten more than Duckworth but that's why you have to wait on the prospects. But, besides re-tooling for the future, the Astros were able to trade from their strengths (bullpen) while immediately improving their weakness (starting pitching depth) and saving money. Now, some of you might wonder why mess with the strength of the team. Again, its because you have a more than adequate option or you can get just as effective of a closer for cheaper (hate to say it but Foulke is out there and he's got his roots in Texas). And if Dotel is enough, then you now have some money to play with (of course, maybe it is a firesale, which sucks). I just wonder, with all the bickering about keeping Biggs and Bags, would you have wanted to keep a declining Wagner three years from now when you couldn't have gotten maybe one prospect. It was time to make a change and this was probably the best you could have gotten for him.
this is the most disappointing thing ive seen in a long time. just goes to prove the astros are one of the many baseball teams who could care less about being competitive. billy wagner wasnt just a closer, he was an icon in houston. when i went to games, seeing him pitch was one of the best things ever. everything he said about astros management was right. i cant believe this. ive just lost all of ever being a real astros fan like i was starting to become......lets boycott the astros.
DV, here's a few stats for you: 2003 Wagner vs.: Cubs 1.42 era, 3/3 saves Cards 0.00 era, 7/7 saves WS Champion Marlins 0.00 era, 4/4 saves 2000-2003 Wagner vs. Cubs 1.6 era, 18/18 saves Cards 1.0 era, 21/21 saves So you are trading a player who's absolutely dominant vs. your closest division competition, and one of the top 3 closers in baseball, because you have 2 solid options behind him? Let me remind you about the last time Dotel closed games. 2000 Dotel as closer: 4.24 era, 16/23 saves Bottom line, the Astros today are much worse than they were yesterday. Justify all you want, but it's odd that the Stros could find a way to keep a stiff like Biggio last season while not being able to afford a stud like Wags this time. If we kept him for a season and then he left in free agency, at least we would have gotten a compensatory 1st round pick.
Sure Wags was dominant against the Cards and Cubs in save situations... WHAT CLOSER WASN'T (w/ the exception of Smoltz in that one August game against STL). If you look up those stats, you'll see that EVERY CLOSER would have good stats against those teams because those teams don't make many comebacks. Hell, even better, the Astros stats against the Cubs and Cardinals closer were probably even worse... cause we didn't make any comebacks against Borowski, etc. (but Kent did shell Morris in April...ha!) If Wagner were a starter, or a 2+inning releiver, those stats would mean more than just his one inning of work. And as far as Dotel is concerened, when he was made closer in 2000, he was just a mediocre starter... now, in the 3 YEARS since then, he's been one of the BEST releivers in baseball. Using those stats is a joke. (plus, in many situations, his 8th inning heroics have been more pressure packed than the ninth.)
Gee! Maybe now Bags, Bidge and Kent will demand to be traded, allowing us to keep Hidalgo and get a stud center fielder and some propects and actually have a near term future for this team. Nahhhh!
Well, here's some more, ain't numbers fun? '03 Dotel vs. ATL, BOS, CHI, FLA, MON, NYY, PHI, SF, STL: 40.2 IP, 20 H, 2HR, 16BB, 49K, 4ER, 0.89 ERA That's my closer. For 1/2 the price (if even that) of Wags. 2000 was his first real chance to pitch out of the bullpen in his professional baseball career. He'd always been a starter before. I'd put much, much (infinitely) more stock in his performance the past 3 seasons out of the pen. Sorry, but I'll take 3 talented youngsters with plus arms over a first round pick in the biggest crapshoot of any professional draft.
The sad truth is that you can't justify paying a player that much that can only come in during certain situations. A closer is just a relief pitcher that gets a special stat just for him. Also, nobody has mentioned how badly utilized Wagner has been during his career. Has ANY pitcher with a 100 MPH fastball and a good slider ever been a closer? It almost defies logic. No player with that good an arm should be pitching one inning per game...
I never ever claimed they were losing 30 mil per year, TJ. I said fans expect Mclane to carry a 100 mil ish payroll even though the Houston market as it stands only makes 70-75 mil a year. Which is where the payroll was last year I might add. You seem to be getting my points confused. Nowhere did I ever say I bought i nto Drayton claim he's losing so much money currently, because I don't. I just don't think he should take an incredible pocketbook hit because the Yankees and Boston, etc can spend like twice his amount currently because of baseball's system. Until they create a regional sports network in houston, the revenue stream won't change. And I wasn't comparing apples to oranges. Look at the teams with top payrolls in baseball and look at the size of their media deals, and there is a correlation. Especially when you combine a strong and large fan base to it. That was the point on YES, WGN, and TBS. I don't care how the cable deals work, its how much revenue they generate, and all 3 kick the Astros butt in that regard. And as far as the regional network in Houston, considering I've been away in Austin for 3 years I'd say I'm not as update on all houston news as I was in the past. Finally, my argument isn't hard to understand, except to you, and it wasn't filled with cliches either. It boils down to this: Mcclane isn't as evil as most houston fans think, Wagner isn't worth 8-9 mil a year, Wagner is not an elite closer like Gagne, Smoltz or Rivera because he struggles against the elite teams mightly, and for a mid market team like Houston its best for them to allocate their financial resources elsewhere than in an 8 million dollar closer, especially when you have the caliber of arms of Dotel and Lidge in the wings.
exactly... he shouldnt have been paid $8-9 million to begin with (but, the market dictated that sort of spending back then). Also, his arm is great... but if he had to pitch more than one inning, you WOULD NOT be seeing 100 MPH. (hence, his failure as a starter). Hell... if Oswalt or Miller only had to pitch one inning, they'd gun it up around 98-99 (with a lot more movement on their explosive fastball, than what Billy has on his straightball).
DV: You're way to stressed out about this. He's just pushing your buttons. It's a simple enough issue, viewed statistically. The influence of a closer - no matter how good - simply isn't worth the % of salary the Astros were devoted to Wagner. It's all about the VORP, baby .
Gagne and Smoltz to name two. They each (especially Gagne) continue to use their starter's repertoire of pitches when needed. Wagner recently developed an effective slider. He was a one pitch pitcher for most of his career (although it was a very effective pitch).
AAAAAAGGGGHGHHHHHHHH!!! I just want to win! You can paint it however you want, but when we keep letting talent go, (either by trade, or by letting them sign elsewhere) it really upsets me. If you can't afford to pay your players, then go back to sellin grocries and let someone with some pockets come in this hiiizzzzzzouse!!
Uh...A-Train. Wagner's inability to learn a second pitch for 9 F*ing years in professional baseball is what made him a reliever. Not some diabolical bit of dumbassery by the 'Stros org. He tried a curve...couldn't throw it. Tried a changeup...ditto. Finally got comfortable enough with a slider in '02 to throw it maybe once every 10 pitches. One pitch starters do not exist.
AAAAAAGGGGHGHHHHHHHH!!! I just want to win! You can paint it however you want, but when we keep letting talent go, (either by trade, or by letting them sign elsewhere) it really upsets me. If you can't afford to pay your players, then go back to sellin groceries and let someone with some pockets come in this hiiizzzzzzouse!!
STUPID STUPID STUPID i loved wag's heres hoping Dotela nd Lidge can do the same or better Duckworth is pretty good with the K's so heres hopin for the best
Truly excellent points, DV - nice job. Houston did have a regional sports network once upon a time called "HSE". Then that morphed into "Prime Sports", which would eventually be assimilated by Fox as "Fox Sports Southwest"...and the damn thing is up headquartered up here in Dallas now!!! While McLane has disappointed me at times, I'm not prepared to criticize him for this move. He has shown his a propensity to spend before (see: Drabek, Swindle, Randy Johnson, Alou and Kent). Those who say otherwise are simply fans of the moment with all too sort attention spans. Plus, the off-season is barely a week old! It's funny, I had to come to the "Clutch City" (sue me, Les) forums to engage in the better forum discussion of the Wagner trade - all the others are of the "McLane sux" and "Billy rocks" genre. Again, nice job DV - thanks for a voice of reason...
