You made no points, so thank you for wasting my time TJ. I must admit you made it look nice and pretty though. First, Wagner has ALWAYS sucked in pressure situations. He was bad vs San Diego in the playoffs, horrid against Atlanta, and showed up again vs SF the last week of the season. And I don't need to bring up other players to prove my point. Its about Wagner and him alone. Your point is destroyed. Second, he has no confidence in his slider against good teams, and I'm sorry but his 100 mph fastball gets him killed vs Patient, good hitting teams. Its why Atlanta owns him. Your point is destroyed. Third, in baseball you make money by population size and cable deals. Do you not see the atrociousness of the cable deal in houston? FOXSW or YES, or TBS or WGN? Which do you choose? I wonder. I guess Drayton should lose 30 mil a year because he can afford it. Please. Your point is destroyed. Fourth, Wagner is an all-star closer. He is a good closer, sure. But he cannot beat the upper echelon teams in the NL with his heat, as his career shows. So why waste 8 million dollars on that position if you have other needs to fill, serviceable replacements in terms of stuff and he isn't going to put you over the hump you feel. The only "elite" closers are Gagne, Smoltz and Rivera, but the value of a closer just isn't there. The point about Beck and Worrell wasn't in their trade value, it was showing how mediocre pitchers can fill a closers role admirably one season, and how it makes no sense unless you can afford it or have one of the top 3 closers I mentioned above, to spend a significant portion of your payroll on a closer. And I still contend, a closer will not get you that much in return, especially one making 9 million that you don't want to take any salary in return for. Duckworth was highly thought of 3 years ago I might add, but two years ago he struggled and the phillies lost faith in him, which is deadly to a young pitching. I think talent wise, houston lost, but as far as the principle of the move. I agree with it. You aren't going to get an allstar elsewhere for an allstar closer. A top prospect, decent potential young pitcher and a player to be named is pretty close to what you can expect. Your point is destroyed. Next, on your contention Dotel and Lidge can't close. In the Astros postion financially you are better off taking the chance. And dotel is more valuable and better than Wagner even as a setup man. He is the real key to the bullpen, not Wagner, though Billy was important. Dotel's only experience closing was two years ago when he was just adjusting to the bullpen and young, so its not a very good barometer of how he will do. He has come a long way in two years. I want him to be the setup man pitching 100 innings anyway, because he's been one of the top 5 relievers in baseball the last few years. As far as lidge, he has the stuff, and the command to be a good closer, but we will see. But the bottom line is I feel in the Astros position financially you take the risk. Your point is destroyed. Finally, I don't get Drayton's frugal rap? I guess he didn't sign Jeff Bagwell longterm, the same with Biggio, he didn't approve trades for Moises Alou, and Randy Johnson. He didn't sign Jeff Kent did he? He didn't try to bring Clemens home, he didn't sign Drabek and Swindell and give Richard Hidalgo an extension did he? Oh yes, he is so frugal, yet his team for 10 years have been right in the thick of the playoff race, which in the 4 team per league playoff setup, is quite a feat. He just doesn't make the same money that George does in NY. He has a horrible cable deal which hurts his high fan base. I guess he should just take 30 mil per year out his own pocket to try and win a WS, which I might add is no guarantee for success. Look at the Angelos Orioles, the Dodgers, the Yankees have a 180 mil payroll and haven't won a WS in 3 straight years, the Redsox, the Braves have 1 WS after 11 division titles in a row and being the favorites in the NL at least half of them. Heck, look at Texas, and the mess Tom Hicks put his franchise in. Just spending more doesn't guarantee success, fans just think so, and guess what the Astros have been pretty damn successful the last decade. Your point is destroyed. I'm sorry, but you are the one with the weak argument, not me TJ. But thanks for the debate, I needed it.
Where did this idea that the closer is the most overrated position in baseball mainfest itself? I find this truly laughable. Every one of you here knows that without the 2 headed monster of Wagner and Dotel, the Astros would not have been in contention the last 3 years. That is a fact. Now suddenly everyone acts like we could afford to lose Wagner.
The closer being overrated has been out there for awhile now, if you read stuff like baseballprospectus or any of the SABR guys. While Billys 44 saves are impressive, i would guess more than half of those he came in needing to get less 3 outs without allowing more than 2 runs. There are a lot of guys out there who can do that, for a lot cheaper.
here is a good article on the Clsoer being overrated http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/caple_jim/1594716.html
WTF!!! It's all about the benjamin's...I agree one guy making $8MM is not very condusive to the whole team, but damn...It's Billy the Kid... I hope Duckworth is WORTH it...I expect Dalgy to be packing his bags within the week...
Your point is destroyed. You sank my battleship!?!?!! What is with all of the aggressiveness? Pretty soon this is going to turn into a rap battle scene from "8 Mile." Wagner will be missed. His $8 million salary and the fact that Dotel has the capabilities to be a closer are obvious reasons for Wagner's trade. While the Astros do lose a middle relief / set-up man, hopefully that role will be filled when the Astros get Hernandez and Rosario healthy again.
With all due respect to Joe (I happen to enjoy listening to him ) let Joe Morgan manage a big league game that has some meaning instead of second guessing every move from the booth and I'll take his opinion on closers
I don’t disagree with you about Joe, I was just using him as another example of someone who believes in the closer being an overrated position.
The rest of your cliches and platitudes put to the side for the moment, this point is particularly faulty. YES and NESN (red sox) are regional sports networks that are owned by the Yankees and Red Sox. This gives them a huge advantage from a revenues perspective as the rights fees paid are drastically altered and the teams themselves have an equity stake in a very profitable and valuable entity. This is a completely different economic model. That said, the Astros *have* been working on setting up a regional sports network. This has been in the Chronicle multiple times. You didn't know about that little factoid, did you... The Braves (TBS) and Cubs (WGN) were grandfathered in to the current system and are the only teams able to broadcast outside of their local area. Therefore, this is not a relevant comparison. Once again you are comparing apples to oranges. I'd love to see you attempt to back up your claim that the Astros are losing $30mm per year. Can you do it?
The thing is... the "experts" (i.e. Morgan) that think the closer position is overrated are the same ones who say that the game is "over" once the Yanks/Stros/Dodgers/Braves get to the 9th inning with a lead.
They didn't have the portion of their payroll locked in to two contracts for sentimental puroposes that the Astros did.
Getting lost in all this Drayton bashing is the prospects Gerry got in the deal. Remember... Houston's farm system had been depleted after the raid of 2001, when Oswalt, Hernandez, and Redding were brought up. Now, they're getting a guy in Bucholz, who is a pretty promising prospect on all the sites I've looked at. Here's baseball propsectus 2003 on him: Taylor Bucholz: "The Phillies have a wealth of good young pitchers working their way up through the system and Bucholz is one of them. The perpetual concern is their workload; Bucholz has thrown a lot of innings. If he survives this season (most likely at AA), Bucholz may wind up as trade bait in July, given the logjam in the system." Additionally, let it be known that on some Phillies and Cardinals boards on the net, many people are screaming that the PHILLIES were the ones that got raped on this deal, having to take on Wagner's monstrous contract, and giving up on Duckworth (who had all the makings of a stud 2 years ago), and Bucholz. If Bucholz pans out, we'll all be smiling as Wagner suddenly realizes that 33 year olds cant throw 100 MPH every night.
The fact that the Phillies could get Wagner from us without giving up Brett Myers, Gavin Floyd, or Cole Hamels is freakin ridiculous. Floyd and Hamels are far better than Duckworth was ever "thought of". We got raped. The Phils are smelling like a rose by getting one of the best closers in baseball by giving up essentially spare parts and keeping the best young pitchers in their system.
we would have got nothing for him at the end of next year. Without knowing what anyone else was willing to offer, hard to claim we got Kobed. Most people said the same thing when we traded Hampton. With a trade like this you simply arent going to know the winner and the loser for several years.
Timing...32 year old closers do not get traded for A-list starting pitchers under the age of 24. It just does not happen. Front office people throughout baseball realize the relative value of a top level closer in this marketplace...many on this board do not. Any GM that trades one of the three pitchers you mentioned for Billy Wagner will not be a GM for much longer. That's Cam Bonifay-level stupidity.
If anybody here was expecting Myers to be thrown into this deal, pass me a little of what you've been smoking. That kid is a bonafied stud... he's got amazing stuff... and he's just turning 23. As far as the "other" top prospects... note that historically, not every single one of your "top" prospects are going to pan out... in fact, most of the time, you get one really good player, and the rest sort of fade after making the big leauges. IOW, nobody knows what these kids are capable of... my only hope is that Gerry and the FANTASTIC scouting department of the 'Stros know that they're getting something good in Bucholz.
Buck that's a cop out, we just traded one of the best closers in baseball for over aged prospects and a guy in Duckworth who's not been very good at all for 2 years. Getting Myers would probably not be reasonable since he's already had a year in the majors under his belt but last season the Marlins traded Denny Bautista for freakin Jeff Conine! We should have done better than this.
