4) I disagree that Ward's liability will always liability. He certainly will never be a gold glover, but he has made great strides this season towards making himself a better outfielder. Assuming a continued devotion to doing what it takes to stay in the batting lineup day by day, I think he will continue to get better defensively, and I can envision him becoming at least an average defender in time. This is my main concern here. As you said, the defense vs. offense, power vs. average stuff is all kind of subjective. It's hard to tell what the net result will be when you add and subtract those things. My concern with Ward is that his fielding can't improve. He certainly is good with the glove -- he catches whatever he gets too. It just seems to me that everytime I watch him, he gets slower and slower. I'm waiting for the day where he's just stationary in the outfield. Part of this is that I really like speed/defense/smallball type of baseball for some reason. I just enjoy it more, so Ward and Hidalgo annoy the heck out of me (Hidalgo on offense, Ward on both off/def). FWIW, people on Astrosconnection are talking about two possible deals that the Astros might be looking into: (1) Randy Wynn for who-knows-what (2) Hidalgo or Ward for Livan Hernandez; Giants apparently want Ward, 'stros want to give up Hidalgo. Not sure what I think of #2, although we'd free up tons of $$ getting rid of Hidalgo (but we wouldn't have a right fielder).
I'd give Hidalgo away for a can of Chef Boyardee. Ever since he signed the mega-deal, he's done nothing. I think that's why Drayton low-balled Lance this off-season. He was concerned that he may lose motivation like Richard did after seeing the $$$ come to fruition. Strike or no strike, we have a problem in our outfield defensively. The chance to move Lance over to left and put someone with range in center would upgrade us tremendously. If that someone in center provides any offense at all, that's just gravy. I feel as though upgrading the outfield is priority #1. With Munroe and Saarloos looking good, and Hernandez and Mlicki coming back, I can live with our rotation.
I've been saying this for some time. We can't wait much longer for Hidalgo to get back to his 44 homer level with the salary he's receiving. ORLANDO MERCED here me out. Speed, Hitting (power and average-.333), does have an above average arm to go with great defense, at any outfield position. The difference i see most clearly is his aggressiveness. He gets up to the plate and is looking to hack. How many times do you see Ward and Hidalgo look at strike 3? On top of that, they always take strike one, find themselves in a hole, and end up swinging at a bad pitch. Ward seems to always find a way to pop up an 0-2 pitch to the second baseman. Merced is up there to hit, but will take a walk if they give it to him. He's smart and skilled. Currently, they are starting him and he is producing all around. Plus, we still got Jason Lane to look forward to. So which one goes, Hidalgo or Ward, or neither?
If you base it on money, which is what Drayton likes to do, you stick with Ward. With his salary, we can afford to be patient.
Only problem with the Hidalgo or Ward for Livan is that I don't want Livan Hernandez. I like Saarloos and Munro. Livan will be decent and give us innings, but he's not going to be great. Those two young guys could be great for us (or terrible, but I'd like to find out). We already have 6 starters once Carlos is back - Miller, Oswalt, Mlicki (pitched well today), Saarloos, Munro and Hernandez. I'd prefer we trade outfielders for other outfielders -- I agree on Merced. I would love to see him in the lineup more, but I'm not sure if he's capable of playing everyday at this point in his career.
I just want to make sure that everyone realizes that Ward has, for the month of July, put up the kind of numbers that everyone expected out of him -- he's broken out of his slump: Avg: .230 (the only poor number) Obp: .347 Slg: .525 (pretty nice considering the low avg) Ops: .872 RBI: 15 BB/K: 10/13 I can just see what the people who live to bash the Astros would say if they traded away Ward, just as he blew up offensively. Ward and Saarloos, basically two of the 'potential' guys on the roster, for Paul Wilson, who's arm is held together with duct tape, and Randy Winn, who's a nice player, but doesn't have that one 'plus' skill, like Ward's power, or Saarloos' changeup, and will never be much better than he is now.
Randy Winn, who's a nice player, but doesn't have that one 'plus' skill, like Ward's power, or Saarloos' changeup, and will never be much better than he is now. I still don't understand this logic that he'll never be better than he is now. Lots of people thought the same about Torii Hunter last year when he was having a career year. Young players (he's only in his 5th major league season, and he didn't play full-time all those years) having career years is generally not a bad thing. There's no reason to think this is or isn't his ceiling - that's a risk I think you take if you like the player. Ward batting 0.230 is not what I expected of him, regardless of his power numbers. The only time he gets hits are when pitchers stupidly throw him fastballs. If you can get a breaking pitch over the plate, Ward will swing and miss. Maybe he'll learn, maybe not. Meanwhile, he's a massive defensive liability out on the field. My opinion, of course... As you can tell, I'm not a fan of Ward (or Hidalgo).
Age 27-28 seems to be a big deal for baseball players. Most of them tend to have a big stat boost at that point and then tend to level off for the rest of their careers. Winn is right at that age. Historical statisics tend to argue that Winn will not get much better (of course he is on the low end of that scale, and may improve for the next year or so). This boost seems to be tied to power in some way -- how hard a batter hits the ball, be it over the fence or in a line. His average baserunning and throwing will not improve, based on history. Ward is one year (almost to the day) younger than Winn. That, combined with the fewer number of games played give me more hope for Ward's statistical improvement. Also, one of the nice things about baseball is that there is no shortage of quality scouting analysis available. While I admit that I have seen relatively little of Winn, I have read enough about him from people like Stats, Inc, and Bill James to conclude that he is never expected, even by his own teams to be much more than what he's doing right now. He was relatively developed when drafted as a college player and right now, people don't see too much room for growth. Ward is evluated as a player who has upward mobility in the power department. While there is no reason to be sure that this potential will ever be realised, (See the career of Brian Hunter, though there aren't really any historical statistical holes as you could see with Hunter's k/bb ratio) I think the 'general concensus' among the 'experts' is that Ward has more upward room for growth. I would suggest, perhaps, that your Torii Hunter analogy is perhaps, not apt. Hunter was a player who, like Ward, was a player who was suppoesed to have much potenial that hadn't been realized. Winn, on the other hand, is not projected for that kind of growth. BTW, I agree with you about Hidalgo. It's clear to me that he's not physicaly the same player that the Astros latched onto when they chose him over Abreu for the expansion draft. I would, do this deal if you substituted Hidalgo (though I've kind of grown attached to Saarloos.) Finally, I think in retrospect the hype about Lane was a bit too much to soon. He's not really blowing away the competition at AAA, and he's not really that much younger than Ward.
BTW, I agree with you about Hidalgo. It's clear to me that he's not physicaly the same player that the Astros latched onto when they chose him over Abreu for the expansion draft. I would, do this deal if you substituted Hidalgo (though I've kind of grown attached to Saarloos.) I agree on this. I like Saarloos, just as a chance of pace from all the power starters. I know this probably isn't popular opinion, but I would prefer to trade Redding -- he seems like a headcase to me. And if I had to pick, I would trade Hidalgo over Ward. For one, Ward is a better hitter, and two, he's much much cheaper. Hidalgo has 1 HR and 4 RBI this month. The only problem is replacing him with another right fielder. Ideally, I'd like to trade both of them, though.
So... You're equating Winn with Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa? Or did you just miss the word most? I'm not makeing it up. Bill James did a big thing with it a couple years back. He did a very large statistical analysis back through the history of baseball and came up with solid evidence. I'd imagine, of course, that if we started Winn on the 'roids we could probably pump up his power numbers at age 70, but I'm talking about natural development.
So I suppose that Nolan Ryan, Charlie Hough, Carl Yaztremski, Calton Fisk, Harold Baines, Leon Durham and Tim Raines were all on the juice. Many of these guys did not increase their numbers past 28 or so, but they performed at a high level well into their 30s. The point here is that there are MANY exceptions to the generalization that Mr. James' study puts forward. I have listed merely a few. I'm sure that if I thought about it for a while I could think of others...like Bill Madlock, George Brett, Reggie Jackson, Tony Gwynn, Johnny Bench, Ozzie Smith...should I continue? These are just off the top of my head. Sure most of these are great players with skills better than Winn. But we are talking about skills erosion, not skills level.
I've been saying since we first got him that Orlando Merced should be an everyday OF. He goes to the plate with a pinch-hitters mentality, that's why he's so successful in the clutch. Think about this. If the astros had resigned Castilla, think of how much less trouble we'd be in now? Sorry folks, news flash, Vizcaino can't hit.
newsflash, rockets688, castilla's not that good. vizcaino has been very very steady at the plate this year. he hits for contact and can play anywhere in the infield. i believe he leads the league in pinch-hitting with a .500 avg. vizcaino - .290 avg. 329 obp. .355 slg, 1 hr. , 17 rbi. castilla - .240 abg .273 obp. .367 slg. 9hr , 47 rbi. now vinny gets the better of him in rbi's and hr's but barely has a better slg% even though he's a power hitter. jose puts him to shame in avg. and obp. i guess the stros would kill for that .273 obp.
Perhaps you failed to notice the place where I said "...and then tend to level off for the rest of their careers." Your statement about players preforming at a high level but not getting better supports Mr. James' theory and my arguement that Winn may not get much better than he is now. At no point did I say or imply that he's going to suddently become a .220 hitter...
Fair enough. It seemed like you were saying that a players skills would erode quickly after age 28. I may have misunderstood you. If we could get a player in Winn who will hit .315 in the leadoff hole, I take it. I'm even more likely to do it to get rid of a Ward or Hidalgo.
Winn makes $960,000. He wont be a free agent for 3 years. Thats about as good of a bargain as you can get. He's also bad ass, which helps his case. Batting .320 with 47 rbi from the leadoff spot. You gotta take it if he is available.
