Astros are banged up with injuries. And giving a guy the benefit of the doubt, who is coming off extended time off due to injuries is reasonable. Once McCuller gets his groove back he'll be alright, but because he is young it might take him a few starts. McHugh is kind of like Sipp, he was real good 2 and 3 years ago, but been mediocre since (not too high on him getting to his once dominant self). Now let's see what Keutchel looks like after the injury, if he is in his ACE mentality, Astros will be in good shape. But with all the injuries, the best the Astros may hope for is just holding down the fort-mode. However It's that chip they were playing with that I'm concerned about, that isn't a switch you can just turn on whenever. That chip is what makes championships. Hopefully the Astros heal up and regain that type of invincible feeling they had earlier. I can say I feel confident Luhnow is looking out for value and a fair trade. Astros don't have to cash in all their chips because we know the core is young and still improving. As Luhnow said, when reporters were hinting about the blunder of Appel over Bryant, he said with the information they had then they'd pick Appel just the same. Though as new information comes about you modify and improve your system for identifying players. Trust the system, and you will be better off. Emotional decisions make for a lot of heart ache.
I get your point. But we have the potential for the SP staff to right itself. 1) DK coming back 2) McHugh (it will be a few starts before we know if he will contribute) 3) McCullers (seemed like a lock in the first half, terrible 2nd half so far. Chances better than 50/50 he gets back to 1st half form) Not saying all is bright and cheery, but things could work out. Devo, Harris and Giles are the only RP guys I can put much faith in. Feliz, Gregorson and Martes could go either way. Pretty much every other RP I wouldnt give the ball to in a playoff scenario. At the end of the day, who becomes available at a price we are willing to pay will dictate who we add more than need will. At this point, its looks like our greatest need (bullpen arms) is in alignment with whats expected to be most available.
1. What's the guarantee Keuchel will be healthy? I certainly hope he will be, but he already came back "healthy" once this year only to immediately re-injure himself. 2. We have no idea which McHugh we will get. Many would argue that even a healthy McHugh is questionable to rely upon in the playoffs. I will say that he looked good for the first 4 innings this weekend. I hope that's who we reliably get moving forward. 3. What is your basis for the "50/50" statement? He has shown absolutely no improvement over his last 4 starts. By the end of August (if he avoids the DL again) he will set a new career high in appearances. There is absolutely no fact-based evidence to conclude that he will regain form this season (in fact I would argue that facts point to the opposite), only hope. I truly, genuinely would love to be wrong and have these three dominate down the stretch. I welcome everyone to pull this post up in November and mock me if I end up sounding like a over-the-top worrier. But, I think it's telling that my last sentence for each of those pitchers included the word "hope." If we don't make a move for a starting pitcher, our season is riding on "hope." And it's obvious that some are more comfortable with that than others.
No guarantees. No certainty. But, we have guys coming back from injury that may help us on the SP front. Other than Harris, who hasn't been missing long, and probably wont miss much time, we dont have that influx on the RP side. Another thing not to overlook, we have several guys who could go SP or RP (Peacock, Morton, Fiers). When all is said and done from a roster point of view, these guys can be moved in the direction where they are needed most.
I'm not that concerned about LMJ. His IP bother me more for regular season than playoffs. Even though the results have been terrible, his FIP & xFIP haven't been nearly as bad. He's generating lots of groundballs, but giving a high BABIP and not stranding many runners. The fewer K's is probably my only real concern. McHugh probably isn't our 3rd best pitcher, and maybe not 4th. His outing was encouraging in that he had velocity and showed the deadly curve. It is also his 1st start of the season.
Starting to like the idea of a Verlander/Wilson acquisition. With Kershaw and Strasburg getting hurt, combined with so many teams still in the playoff hunt, the sellers market is not likely to change much in the next 7 days. Unless DeGrom or Fulmer are secretly available, I think Verlander is probably a good risk when considering price relative to Gray. And with the depth that has emerged in Peacock and Fiers, Verlander can be pushed down in the rotation if he doesn't show signs of returning to 2016 form. But the biggest reason to make that move would be Verlander's contract reducing the cost for Wilson. I'd be willing to bet both could be had without giving up Tucker or Whitley. A package built around Martes and F Perez very likely gets that done (depending on how much money Detroit eats).
68M + rest of this years $$$ is a lot to gamble on a guy who we can only hope can turn back the clock. If you dont want to give up top tier prospects, then we would be expected to eat all or most of that $$$. That is TOR kind of money. Money you might gladly spend on a TOR guy in his prime, but on a guy who is in decline? I am not saying he couldn't help us. His experience alone is worth a lot. But if two or three years from now, his salary forces us to loose or not be able to resign another valued member, or prohibits another major acquisition, then I dont want this.
I'd agree on Verlander if we were in a race for the division. We're looking at the playoffs and Verlander's record against Cleveland is very concerning. They're a likely ALCS opponent and we have enough trouble with the Indians as it is.
I thought many people here would finally get on board with looking at SP and stop hoarding prospects ESPECIALLY after this series. Our "for sure" #2 and #3 looked pretty bad, our #1 is still in rehab starts, and one of our top prospects got rocked in the face and is now out for quite a bit. SELL HIGH. If Tucker and Martes and a few others get me Gray and Britton or Wilson I'm doing that TODAY. you guys keep wanting to save for the future. It's already here, this is what we struggled through 4 years of 100+ losses for, our core is so young it will be years before we even need these minor league guys, and I for one trust lunhow to bring in some new ones during those years. Last year, Bregman was so untouchable, now, ppl have included him in trades trying to save the new untouchable, Tucker. Maybe next year after Tucker starts 0-39 we will have a new untouchable. This is ridiculous. Get us help and stop relying on hope that ppl return to form and absolute belief that our prospects are made out of gold.
McHugh actually looked "pretty good" considering it was his first start of the season. He was pretty much cruising until the 5th, in which he got 2 outs and then the rain started falling. He then made 2 mistakes that got hit. Not saying I would not feel better adding another bonafide top of the rotation starter, but McHugh's outing isn't the reason. He was fine....considering.
At this point, they may not find a better arm or short-stint bullpen guy than Charlie Morton or Brad Peacock. If they can find a starter on-par, or better, than those two... that should be looked at along with any possible bullpen arm.
Verlander would be interesting. I get a Randy Johnson to the Astros vibe with this one. Randy was AWFUL the first part of the season before being traded to the Stros, then turned it around tremendously in Houston. Albeit Verlander isn't as bad as Randy was, this could be a similar scenario.
Awful? 106 ERA+, 3.35 FIP, 12K:3.4BB He was so terrible... Verlander: 96 ERA+ 4.27FIP, 4.88xFIP, 4.80SIERA, 8.5K:4.2BB
Fans not wanting to part with prospects is a moot point. Unless you think fans have a hand into what Luhnow actually does. Frankly I doubt he's wanting fan vindication. Luhnow trust the computer models, and the process. Sure there is a human touch, but Astros aren't in dire straights to get another mediocre pitcher. Other teams chances of a playoff berth depend on adding someone. I'm sure the Astros will come up on the price they are willing to pay, but you don't go all in on a guy who's best years were 2 or more years ago. Trades are fun. But these are million dollar decisions, the are no takebacks.
I know they don't have the track record that some of the others do but Fiers and Peacock are pitching well enough now to merit consideration for playoff starts.
Agreed. I'd be tempted to test Morton in the role... we know Peacock can do it. I think I'd be focused on Hand, Justin Wilson, or Britton -- we need a lefty better than Sipp, and those guys can be more than just LOOGYs.
Completely agree with this. Morton's stuff will be electric out of the bullpen. He's already throwing mid to upper 90's as a starter. He struggles the third time through the lineup. To me that screams a guy who can be moved to the bullpen, come in for an inning or two for a high leverage situation and work in the upper 90's. That seems to be where his value will be the highest come October.
