FWIW from what I have heard from inside the Astros, is that they are being very aggressive for a starter to add to Dallas and Lance. Fits what I have heard from Chicago, when the Cubs opened talks over Gerritt Cole the Pirates were already in serious talks with the Astros.
This has been known for a while. But, I honestly don't want to make a move too fast. Yes, everything is pointing to acquiring sooner than later but we don't know if anyone better could come available. Just get through these next few weeks. 1.) Keuchel - Get him back in a week. 2.) McCullers - Don't overwork him, keep it rolling. 3.) Cole, Archer, another ace. 4.) McHugh - Get him back by August. 5.) Morton - Get him back by August. Paulino, Musgrove, Peacock, Fiers as insurance come that time (unless Musgrove or Fiers is dealt). Patience.
Yea, Cole is not looking so good right now. Though at this point we are down to McCullers and Fiers... yikes... Keuchel, Morton, McHugh and Musgrove all down at the same time...
While I'm not in freak out mode over our pitching just yet, it's obvious we probably need to make a move sooner than later. I don't want the team to lose any steam. I'm willing to trade Martes at this point, less inclined to trade Tucker. It's still early and we aren't quite sure who is actually available. I don't want to jump the gun on someone if we are able to be patient and land a bigger fish later. That said, I'm a little antsy. I'm all in for Archer, though I'm not sure the Rays are willing to part with him. I kind of have a feeling that Gray may be the one Luhnow lands. I'm lukewarm at best with Cole at the moment.
TO be fair, if Martes has shown anything it's that we shouldn't put all our eggs in unproven baskets.. I'm tired of people wanting to keep minor leaguers in hopes they become the major leaguers that we would trade them for. Just get the ppl that are proven. The prospects aren't THAT much cheaper than the ones we are looking at. And it's not our money lol.
This... strike while the iron is hot. The only thing I am worried about now is that everyone knows we're thirsty for starting pitching. It would've been nice to have more leverage at the negotiating table than we do now, but if we land a #2/#3 type, I won't have any problem with us overpaying a little.
In the broader view, whether we have overpayed or not in any given trade really cant be assessed until years after. As far as leverage goes, one has the most when you dont really need anyone in the first place Leverage works on both sides. Finding a team that needs some good PR. Needs to make a splash with their local media. Can brag and boast about all the great prospects they got. How they raped their trading partner, are exactly what some teams need right now. Fill their fans with hope. On this score, it may very well be the case that certain teams may have a degree of desperation of their own.
Haha screw that, we have a #1a and #1b already... get me a #1c and call it a day lol. After last night, and the season Keuchy is having... Can you imagine Dallas, LMC, cole/archer/gray/quintana... then any 2 of the M's that are left? Every night could be a win.
You mean the Cole, Gray and Quintana who have respective ERA's of 4.83, 4.57, and 5.30? Right now I'm honestly not convinced any of those 3 would be noticeably better options in October than McHugh or Morton. That's not to say I wouldn't want them, but if teams are still asking for a premium package for any of those 3, I would be standing my ground as well if I were the Astros. The Rays are still very much in the hunt, so I doubt Archer is available right now.
You're right, I meant Archer too. and who else? Vargas on a rental? IT's hard to find an Ace that is sub 3 ERA and on a team that is selling.
how pissed would we be if we got Quintana last winter and he was doing this now? It'd be like Gomez, except giving up elite prospectS to get him. I have to imagine more than half the board would be crushing Luhnow. So it seems only fair to give him a ton of credit for not overpaying for someone that didn't deserve it. Perhaps there was some luck involved in that the White Sox were overasking, but there's luck involved in good trades too. Nice one Jeff!
You have to think that the Astros coaching staff and front office feels they can get more out of those guys with proven track records, provided they're healthy. As much as people talk about the "Cardinal way" around here... one often overlooked aspect was their ability to acquire pitchers with track records who were struggling, and get them rehabilitated and back to an elite level (Kile, Carpenter...). The Astros have tried their own version of that with Myers, Fister, Morton... but I would be optimistic they would get more out of those struggling pitchers now and in the future.
I think there's a good chance all 3 of those guys could be extremely good for us. Maybe it's not even about mechanics, just about getting back into a meaningful situation. But there's a big difference between proven front end guy, and a guy's who been good in the past and we think can be good again. We don't know if the prospect price has been adjusted accordingly. It just seems best for all parties involved to wait it out. If you are a seller it gives your guy the chance to straighten up and regain value and if you are a buyer, it would give you much more confidence to deal if you were getting a guy that was actually performing well instead of a guy you think can perform well.
Let's ask it a different way: how convinced are you that one of those 3 would be *healthier* than McHugh and/or Morton in October?
There will be a number of pitchers available most likely. There is a real possibility that the top arms available are: Darvish, Archer, Gray, Quintana, Cole and possibly Stroman and Archer. Out of that group, only Darvish is currently an ace, but you are paying for 3 months only. The others are more of #2-3 pitchers under team control that have at various times pitched like #1-2's. Assuming that the prospect cost is too high for the Astros, there is a second tier of pitchers that the Astros are likely to be able to make a deal for... Jason Vargas Ervin Santana (possibly) Ivan Nova Matt Shoemaker Andrew Triggs Alex Cobb Danny Duffy Jake Odorozzi All of the pitchers would help the Astros rotation and would likely fill the #3 spot in the rotation and are capable of pitching innings and giving quality starts. The most likely targets in my opinion are Jason Vargas and Danny Duffy. Vargas is going to be a free agent, and while he is pitching over his track record right now, he has been solid the last 3 seasons. He would likely cost the Astros 1-2 good, but not great prospects in the tail end of the Astros top 10. The other possible piece would cost more, Danny Duffy. Duffy is not a #1 starter and never will be, he isn't even a #2 most of the time. He is, a steady and competitive starter though that keeps his team in the game and is also under control through 2021 and could be a long term solution as a solid #3 starter or a great #4 starter. I was curious about Jhonny Cueto, and his situation. He can opt out and that is supposedly complicating him being traded.
