I'd add so has not having Reed, White, Kratz, Gomez, Moran, Stassi, Duffy, Worth, and Tucker provide negative value in first half has helped a bunch. Bregman and Gurriel also weren't Astros a year ago. Considering Keuchel and McCullers injuries, implosion of Gomez and Rasmus, and every hitting prospect not named Bregman completely sucking, winning 84 games last year is a testament to how good Altuve, Correa, and Springer are.
I can't say whether they are or not, but that is what I'm talking about. Springer, Correa, Jake, Marwin, & Reddick are having career years (substantial improvement). I'm sure natural growth and hitting being somewhat contagious is the primary driver, but I can't say Beltran and Aoki aren't a part of that. What I do know is that players would notice if we just dumped those guys, and I think it could negatively impact the younger players psyche. You'd have to find a very substantial improvement to the roster to make that move.
While its more political than anything else, I agree you cant just cut Beltran. Despite one of the worst players in the league on a performance vs salary point of view. We are stuck with the status quo. Come September call ups, I could see his AB's reduced without consequence. Its come playoff time that it becomes interesting. Beltran is going to expect to play a part. The other players as well. But its quite easy to imagine a scenario where the game is on the line and Beltran bats next with guys in scoring position and needing a run badly. PR wise, we could survive trading Aoki I think.
Trade Beltran for Quintana and include a few prospects to sweeten the deal and then go get someone to replace his "production" as DH.
I'm at the point we don't need a mid rotation innings eater like I thought we would a month ago It has to be someone clearly better than a healthy Morton as a top 3 guy if we are gonna move top prospects Having said that, if a true difference maker is available, Tucker Martes Whitley should all be available. They all have huge potential, but so many do and most don't pan out Heck D Ward was hailed as the next Mo Vaughn, if he were in our system now the masses would say never move him. So so so many guys like these guys just don't make it. I'm not saying move them easily, but if that's what it takes for a front line starter, don't hoard them
We should try to get deGrom from Mets, will be expensive though. Martes, Fisher and a few lower prospects
Ward was the 97th rated prospect once. Reed got higher than that. I'm pretty sure Astros would trade Ward at his peak of prospect status right now as they likely will trade someone better at the deadline. Though, I doubt Tucker is available unless something crazy happens like a Trout trade. Top 25 hitting prospects don't bust that often and aren't traded often (3 times in 4 years). It has been since Jio (2009) that the Astros have drafted a hitter in the 1st round that was a complete dud (though they let one get away that has turned into something slightly more than nothing).
Ward wasn't as highly regarded as most of these (his power in MLB certainly raised his value though. Singleton & Reed were more highly regarded than Ward was (mostly because Ward kind of came out of nowhere after we acquired him).
Ward was still one of those Astros' teams best assets.... Willy T and Jason Hirsch were also assets. Sure, none of those guys amounted to anything... and weren't the best prospects in all of baseball.... but they still all caused fans to think twice about ever trading them. Tucker does seem (to me) to have everything it takes to make it in the big leagues. I actually don't like trades that automatically presume he has to go... because the mark of any supposedly deep farm system is that you don't necessarily have to give up your best asset to get deals done. He's actually got a pretty decent path to the big leagues... other positions, however, seem blocked for the foreseeable future and I hope Luhnow is more aggressive at trading these guys earlier (i.e. - before they reach the higher minor levels) while they have even more value. Luhnow has also grown as a GM... at one point, he'd admit that he did favor his prospects, his system, his way because the St. Louis track record spoke for himself. Sometimes, you can do everything perfect (system wise)... and still, only the special players make it (usually regardless of system).
I keep hearing that Luhnow needs to be open to trading his top prospects. My question is, who out there is WORTHY of the Astros top prospects? There are no real aces that are known to be available.... is Sonny Gray really that much an upgrade?
Just the other day he was talking about how he wants to win now, but also win for more than next 3-4 years. I'm guessing he still values prospects highly with that view. I do expect he'll trade a lot of prospects now that the Astros are winning. He's going to trade from depth with maybe a little off the top for that right deal. As you mentioned, the standard top 2 prospects plus a couple more from top 12-15 for a TOR pitcher does not seem like Luhnow unless it is an ace with a lot of control cheaply. Right now, I think Luhnow needs to trade some guys to make room on 40-man for near future, but not sure what he'll get. If Beltran is off the table, that leaves a SP, Aoki, and maybe a reliever spot (not sure what Astros are going to do with all the starters once McHugh and Keuchel are back plus possibly get another).
I think three data points from 2015 will inform the move(s) that Luhnow will make: 1) When they thought they had a chance in 2015, he felt, and I believe still feels, that he "owed it' to the team to make a move since those kind of opportunities don't come around very often, 2) He has admitted that in being aggressive early and moving on Kazmir (July 23) he missed out on David Price coming available (July 31), and 3) He wants this current window to extend for the next few season (3-5, if not 10). To me, the first two points would indicate he will make a move, but it will be late to see if something unexpected shakes loose late (doesn't mean he won't have an agreed upon deal in hand as we move closer to July 31). I can't figure out if the third point means he's more or less likely to trade away prospects in AA/AAA or those in the lower level (but maybe higher, more risky upsides). Part of me thinks he'd trade away the prospects closer to the majors knowing the core four (Altuve (2019), Springer (2021), Correa (2022), and Bregman (2023)) are locked up through at least the next 2 seasons and he'll have had three drafts (counting the 2017 one) to build up the next wave of prospects to backfill the departure of anyone currently at Corpus or Fresno.
The more Gray pitches and puts 2016 behind him, the more I like him. Probably not worth Tucker and I'm not a good judge of lower level arms. I could see Fisher in a deal if the lower level arms are too valuable, though not sure if he is in the top prospects. I am thinking Astros are going to try to bludgeon teams with Morton, Peacock, Giles, Devenski, and Harris out of the pen, but that likely needs three starters. I still don't trust Fiers and McHugh as a third starter much less if one of Keuchel or McCullers has health problems in postseason.
Chris Archer or bust for me. I did notice Keuchel and Archer sitting next to each other and chatting it up during the ASG. I remember Keuchel was recruiting David Price when he was a free agent. Git 'er done Keuchel/Mauri/Chris Paul/Luhnow!
I agree with that last sentence. I think Luhnow would prefer to trade prospects in the upper levels (Fisher, Martes, Paulino) instead of prospects in the lower levels (Perez, Whitley); the idea would be that the big league team has most positions locked down for the next 2-3 years, so the guys at AAA are superfluous. Tucker falls somewhat in between those 2 groups. But I think Luhnow will always be extremely reluctant to part with any prospect as highly thought of as Tucker, regardless of how far away from the majors he is.
