They'd NEVER do it - but if they could somehow land Yelich and keep Tucker............. and then deal Springer............... THAT would be interesting. Gerry Hunsicker has always said one of his biggest mistakes was the '97 (?) expansion draft when he had three OFers: the veteran Derek Bell and two promising rookies (Richard Hidalgo and Bobby Abreu). He protected Bell and Hidalgo, made Abreu available (he was subsequently drafted and, IIRC, traded). I was a frequent poster on Astro Connection then and many of us strongly advocated for them to keep the two young kids over Bell. Of course, Abreu went on to have the best career of the three, which made the choice even worse. That's the thing... everyone talks about the uncertainty of prospects and that's certainly a concern - but there's also uncertainty around the windows of veterans. You never know...
That would really be interesting. I'd imagine you're suggesting they'd deal Springer AFTER this season though in that scenario, right? Hell, they could even deal him after the 2019 season and still get great value by then, while getting a full evaluation of Tucker beforehand. In that way, it's different than Bell/Abreu...we're not going to be forced into a choice without more certainty (if that trade can come to fruition). But damn you for making me remember something negative in Abreu in this amazing offseason time!
bWAR, 2016-17: Springer: 10 Yelich: 9.2 Now factor in Yelich's age, cost and higher ceiling, and he's not only as good as Springer but incredibly more valuable, as well. I have no idea how cutthroat Luhnow is, but if he was offered Yelich for Springer, he would absolutely do that deal, assuming he could navigate the blowback from fans like you. I backed it up. Their numbers are virtually identical the past two seasons - and Yelich is younger. This isn't terribly hard. Yelich was, by bWAR, twice as valuable as Reddick last year - which was essentially peak-Reddick. And Yelich is six years younger. You're right - that was pretty simple. On this topic, I'm most assuredly smarter than you because I'm not blinded by homerism. Springer is great; Yelich is as good with significantly more value.
You have convinced me. Judging by your standards in the yelich vs springer comparison, Tucker is way more valuable than yelich in all categories. Age, cost, and ceiling.
If you're only going by bWAR then Reddick was more valuable than Yelich. Unless you think 3.9 bWAR is better than 4.4 bWAR. (On a side note: there's more to the game than bWAR)
Well in his defense he likes to mismatch stats to better support his argument when convenient. He was using ops+ then shifted to war when I proved him wrong.
The difference is Yelich has similar stats (although they had opposite performances; last year Yelich was good and springer was okay and this year springer was good and yelich was okay), while Tucker is a minor leaguer. You can argue Yelich isn't worth Tucker, but that's not what he is saying
I know what he is saying but you can't argue ceiling as a non factor in one argument then come back and use it as some sort of absolute factor in the next argument. His argument for yelich over springer contradicts his argument for yelich over Tucker imo. Bottom line is I don't think Tucker is worth giving up for yelich. I also don't think yelich is better than springer. And if ceilings are involved...springers ceiling is 40 homers, 100 plus rbis, and about a 400 obp. Yelich has elite on base skills But he hasn't added the power...he has had an ops over 800 twice... Springer has had an ops over 800 his whole career. Yelichs ops is at 800 for his career (mainly bc of his monster season a couple years ago), springer is at 837. I mean springer is better across the board. Period.
Oops; you're right - I had 9.2 bWAR in my head, which were his past two seasons. Having said that: Yelich ('16-'17): 9.2 Reddick ('16-'17): 4.6 Last year was peak Reddick; it was not peak Yelich. They'd have to invent a new way to measure time to calculate how fast ever single general manager in baseball would trade Reddick for Yelich.
Reddick had 7 bWAR. You're only looking at his time with the Dodgers, but he was traded midseason. I'm not arguing Yelich vs Reddick though; I'd easily take Yelich over Reddick. I'm just pointing out the correct numbers lol
You are still wrong even when you know your "facts" are being checked. Reddick 16-17 war was at 7 while in 2016 he played about 2/3 of the season. Anyways my point wasn't that they are the same...just that they are more comparable than yelich and springer are. And yes I was exaggerating too.
He is skewing my comment. I said that reddick was more comparable to yelich than yelich to springer. A step further...reddick also had a monster season around his 2nd or 3rd year in the majors. I wonder what reddicks ceiling was back then when he hit over 30 homers.
Those aren't MY standards; those are THE standards, widely used by the vast majority of baseball general managers, writers, fans... Stop being so ******* stubborn: they are virtually identical players, performance-wise. When you have players producing roughly the same value, age & cost become significant factors. And yes, that is precisely the crux of the argument, re: Tucker/Yelich - Tucker is younger, cheaper, under club control longer with enormous potential. The difference is Tucker hasn't proven he can do it in the big leagues. We know Yelich can. If we're lucky, Tucker will be as good. If we're really lucky, he'll be better.
Man..... you're right. I looked at just his Dodger number. Still... 9.2 > 7. Moreso when you factor in age and cost: Yelich had a surplus value of nearly $70MM in '16-'17; Reddick ~ half that ($37MM).
Whose age 26 & 27 numbers do you think will be better? That was the point of the comparison; Yelich is essentially already producing Springer-like numbers at age 24 and 25. THAT'S why he has more value. He's younger, cheaper with almost zero drop-off. Take the names off the players, forget the emotional connection we all have to Springer and view those numbers again - which player are you picking? Player A: .290/.373/.460/.833; 125 OPS+; 9.2 bWAR; age 26 season; 5years /$58MM Player B: .271/.363/.487/.849; 134 OPS+; 10. bWAR; age 28 season; 3 years of arbitration
I understand all of this . My original argument was that it isn't worth trading Tucker for yelich for the reasons you just stated. "THE standards." You turned this into yelich is as good as springer which just isn't true. In fact the only reason it is justifiable to take off springers first 2 seasons is because of injury and being called up after the season started otherwise he is a 30 homer, 90 RBI, 360 obp, 820 ops player on a yearly average. Even so stop cheating springer and compare all 4 of his years to all 4 of yelichs and it isn't even close. Does yelich have more control for what is a relatively cheap deal, yes he does which is why it is just a little bit arguable. But still he doesn't produce at the same rate as springer. They aren't the same player. Springer is just a better player by every metric. You are so focused on not being a homer that you are just flat out wrong but still pounding your chest bc not being a homer is cool.
Question, who do y’all think will get the franchise cornerstone contracts? It’s already sounding that unless Keutchel sign a below market deal, they’re going to let him walk. I think they have to pay Altuve and Correa. But if someone offers Correa, Stanton money and years, he’s likely gone too. And Altuve by signing with Boras wants to get paid.... Which is why hanging onto Tucker is vital. He is one or two years away, and gives the Astros a hyper talented OF who can step in as a corner stone player if Correa or Springer leave via free agency. Bergman said it best, one day people will be saying in awe how the 2017 Astros were truly a super team comprised of all stars.
I'm taking the guy I know can perform in the playoffs and that would be Springer. Also forget the emotional connection the fans have to Springer. Go ask any player on the 'Stros who the team leader is, the glue to the team, and the heartbeat of the team and they'd all say Springer. WAR doesn't/can't measure that. You say you know what Yelich can do at the big league level (compared to Tucker). Which is reasonable. We know what Springer can do in the playoffs. Yelich we have no idea.
In truth, unless something major changes in the CBA in 2021, I think Altuve will be the only major player to sign an extension, and I think even he will only sign because Crane will step in. This front office just knows too well that spending $150M+ on an aging player (Keuchel, Springer, Altuve, Cole) or $200M+ on any player (Correa, Bregman) just isn’t a good idea when you’re a mid market team. My current expectation is that they will let Keuchel and Springer walk, sign Altuve and see where they and the league are at when Correa and McCullers are due. If entering 2021 they aren’t contending and/or the CBA is the same, I think they will enter another major rebuild, trading away any expensive player except possibly Altuve. Only this time the rebuild shouldn’t last nearly as long or be nearly as miserable because they will start with a lot more valuable assets to trade, a lot better farm system, and more money. Ideally it would only last 1-2 seasons as they should get quite a haul for Correa, Bregman, McCullers, etc and will also have plenty of compensation draft picks between now and then.
