But see, I think fans ARE acutely aware of the pending bloodbath. While some (like you) think the best solution is to plan to mitigate the losses, others (like me) want to go for it all before we lose some of these guys. Trying to equate the future with the 2006-2012 years is a straw man. We have an owner and a GM who invest in the draft and the international market. Under this leadership, we will never again neglect our farm system. Honestly, one of the biggest reasons I'm so mad at Luhnow is because I have so much faith in his ability to restock our minor league system. Look at our "untouchable list"... Tucker is the only one that required a high draft pick. Fisher was a compensatory pick. Perez was an international signing. Martes was a trade throw-in. Alvarez was traded for a relief pitcher. Whitley was a mid first rounder. These are all the types of players we will have the chance to acquire again, without needing to tank. What's more likely, we have another season with three legit MVP candidates and a handful of other guys having career years while no other team in the AL appears to be dominant, or Luhnow is able to turn a mid-first round pick into a productive player? While I don't agree with your line of thinking, I'm not saying you're wrong. There are just different approaches to this impending issue and only hindsight will determine the correct path forward. But please don't insinuate that those of us advocating for a trade are unaware of the contract issue, when in fact it's the primary reason many of us are so upset that no trade was made.
Fair enough. But you don't seem aware of it's timing if you think it doesn't start until 2023, 2025. Keuchel's deal is up in a year-and-a-half - and that doesn't include arbitration results. But... why? I mean, generally, I agree with you - the front office is obviously competent and they've made the pipeline a priority. But just look at how you describe the untouchable list... ...that doesn't necessarily read like the work of a competent front office as much as it does a lucky one (certainly a combination of the two). Ever heard of a bird in the hand?... Sure, they'll have the opportunity to draft another mid-first round pitcher like Whitley (well, lower-first round, now) - but that comes with no guarantee and it pushes the timeline. So why deal a "sure thing"?
Same could be applied to having a team that's far/away the best in the league. Sure, they'll have the opportunity to be the best in the future... presuming regression, age, injuries, and other teams getting better don't get in the way.... but that comes with no guarantee and it pushes the timeline.
Prospects are "sure things"? If anything, your last paragraph could be copied almost word for word in a post about why it is unwise to hoard prospects in lieu of trading them for established major league talent.
All of this, along with the blind Houston fans, reminds me of the 2012 Texans. Most of us with half a brain knew that start was fools gold. Then the team limped into the playoffs losing 3-4 and getting absolutely stomped by better teams. Sure, we beat the crap Bengals but of course got curb stomped by New England. Schaub was noticeably regressing showing he would never be the same after the lisfranc injury, but the team stood pat. And any of us fans that made a big deal about it were crucified by the homers in this city. Team then proceeds to go 2-14 the next season, Kubiak gets fired, and the rest is history. There is nothing wrong with pointing out deficiencies in your team. If this were high school or even college athletics, I get the defensive nature of fans protecting unpaid athletes. But this is pro sports where tickets cost a fortune, merchandise is expensive, beers are outrageous at the games, and thus it is my opinion that it is our obligation as fans to hold our teams accountable.But sadly, this city has far too many complacent fans just content to have a fun gameday experience, a team to watch, and make the playoffs every so often. How this relates to the Astros is we should be holding them accountable. This is the best team this city has ever seen, especially in baseball. They are positioned to win it all and for a city with only 2 freaking championships in the big 3 major sports, it was unacceptable for them to fail to get anything done. Next year is never a guarantee. We needed to do everything possible to win now. Luhnow failed us all.
Of course not. Like I said, bird in the hand... they HAVE a blue chip pitching prospect. Trading him away would leave a void and require them to find *another* one, which, as we know, isn't easy to do.
... or they just wait a year and discover them amongst this year's already drafted class.... sorta like how Whitley developed. He does have a solid point... obtaining/developing another prospect IS far easier than ensuring/maintaining the best team in the league (or counting on a season where there are no other dominant AL teams). Especially for this front office that will consistently draft well and sign all picks well.
Which one are you've referring to? Whitley? Martes? Perez? Bukauskus? When your "untouchable" pitching prospects emerge at the rate of basically one per year, maybe it's time to reevaluate how irreplaceable they really are.
The anomaly wasn't '12; it was '13. They posted winning records in '11 and '14-'16, and won the division three additional times. You're having an argument with yourself; no one is oblivious to the team's deficiencies. EVERYONE agrees they needed help at the deadline; the disagreement is over how much people were willing to pay for that help.
That's sort of the point... I don't know who was on their untouchable list so to criticize them without that information is sort of meaningless. If they were protecting....... James Hoyt, I mean - that's an entirely different discussion than them trying to protect Whitley.
Go ahead and assign blame. Its much easier than admitting the truth. The truth is, the kind of help we needed wasn't there for the taking. Whatever you think of Luhnow, he's not magically vested with the talent to make teams trade players they dont want to trade. If you think the wise move was to overpay for second tier talent, then your welcome to think that. As far as guarantees go, no amount of talent, even the kind we really needed is guarantee of anything. Your account of Houston sports history doesn't change a thing. No amount of failure in the past should serve as a catalyst to do something unwise in the present. All a GM can do is put you in a position to win. To my eyes, he has done just that. If you want to judge Luhnow's record based on one trade deadline outcome then feel free to do so. But dont expect all the rest of us to buy into it or stay silent while you go off on your rant.
I say 2025 or 2023 because I think it will be that long before Tucker and Martes are reaching peak levels. You really think Tucker is going to come in for Springer and replicate everything year one? And if we are losing most of them then this was the best year to give them help. Hell Gray was controlled for 3 more years, and could have been a semi Keuchel replacement with the way he is pitching right now. I say we keep our whole core and don't need help of prospects You say our prospects will grow up and become as good as our core. Neither sounds likely, but one thing is for sure, we have the whole core right now for 2 more years, and I bet you anything Lunhow can replace Tucker, Martes, Perez, or any of them easier than Altuve, Correa, Springer, Keuchel in those 2 years.
So it's LESS likely to replace Tucker than it is for Tucker to replace Springer? OK. Or less likely to replace Martes than Martes replace Keuchel? Can I have some of that koolaid? Tucker for Trout, who says no? Blue chips!
No.... it turns out that overweight first baseman who haven't figured out to hit yet aren't necessarily sought after enough to get key trade deadline players.
But he was good in the minor leagues! Surely every other team was jumping at the chance to get a "sure thing" like him, right?
