I don't think he said anything wrong.... although he could barely keep from smiling while answering the question. Not the best poker face I have seen.
That's a big smile. Either painful is trading Martes or it is someone like Archer. Not thinking anything happens that soon, but optimistic things looking good for mid July.
Agreed. I think it's very possible he gets dealt because it would keep guys like Tucker and maybe a few other prospects in our grasp. Losing Bregman would hurt, but in the scheme of things what will win the Astros a championship... A.) Bregman or B.) Archer or a guy of his caliber as the #3 We all know the answer to this.
Bregman for Archer would need to be a straight up deal. I think Bregman is more valuable than Archer so as much as I LOVE Archer, I wouldn't be thrilled with that trade.
I disagree, heavily. I think Bregman's main value lies in being a back-up plan if Altuve or Correa decide to bolt after their contracts are up. Until then, he's a below average offensive player for the position he plays. I understand that he is young and will surely improve, but his value will never be fully reached with Correa and Altuve in the way. He's one of those players who will undoubtedly be worth more to other teams than he is to us, and he's exactly the type of piece you give up in order to get an ace... especially one under contract until 2020 like Archer.
It's close. I expect Bregman to be worth ~15 fWAR over the next 5.5 years, and he'll likely cost ~$30M total over that time. I have Archer at ~16 fWAR over the next 4.5 years, and he'll cost $37M over that time. Based on that it would be a good deal to trade Bregman for Archer, but I do think the upside is higher with Bregman. I can say that if I were Tampa, I would basically refuse to trade Archer. But if I were to trade him to Houston, I would demand Bregman, Martes, and at least 1 other good prospect.
While I agree that there are teams that likely value Bregman more than Astros... League-Wide 3B RC+ 96 Bregman RC+ 98 I'd call that average offensive production at 3B so far with projection systems thinking Bregman is a little better hitter than he's been this year.
When I said there are teams that likely value Bregman more than Astros, I was not referring to his mad juggling skills.
Add in great defense and you know his bat will improve, no way you trade that for a #3 starter like Archer.
I agree, and I think that's a fair point. I'm not panicking and I'd be reluctant to give up on Bregman - but I think he's a guy who could open doors that might otherwise remain closed (ie Archer). Additionally, among AL 3B, 1B and LF, Bregman ranks 8th (of 12); Gurriel ranks 10th (of 13) and Aoki ranks 12th (of 14) in OPS+. You can't have an All-Star at every position, obviously - but you'd like to see at least one of those three bats upgraded (and that's not including Beltran's disappointing season, although I could understand the Astros' patience with him; Aoki, too, to some degree, given his track record). The Rays are still in contention for now - but if they falter, I would try and sweeten the pot by also taking Longoria's $94MM contract off their hands. He hasn't been appreciably better than Bregman so far this year (both at 2.0 WAR) - but he obviously has a better track record.
We should avoid labels - Archer's FIP is 2.84 (better than Keuchel's and McCullers') and he's on pace to set a career high in Ks. He's also, like Quintana, a 28-year old workhorse who is virtual guaranteed to log 200+ innings. And he'd cost ~$34MM the next four seasons. There're ample reasons for Tampa not to trade him - but he'd probably be the best pitcher available if they did put him on the market.
Without looking at advance stats. (I'm not an analytics expert) Archer has #1 stuff with #3 results. He has no playoff track record and his regular season results have told us that he certainly isn't clutch. Best on the market? We will have to agree to disagree. With that said he would improve the pitching staff, but not really move the needle towards a championship.
On Bregman versus other AL 3B, he's probably one great game or 2 from being in the Top 5 3B offensively. His defense was off early in the season. I'm much more concerned with the other three you mentioned with Aoki being the worst. Aoki probably needs about a month of being twice as good as the average LF to get in the Top 5 offensively among LFs. I'm hoping Fisher can stake a claim to an OF job. On dealing Bregman for Archer, it just seems weird to me. I would do it, but it seems there are things Astros have that I would expect Rays would want more and Astros would want to trade more.
Any talk of Archer being a #3 is ridiculous. Since 2014 he's been the 12th most valuable pitcher in baseball (fWAR). So far this season he's been the 3rd most valuable. No one could possibly name 15 teams in which he'd obviously be the 3rd best pitcher. On the majority of teams he would be the opening day starter. You can say he's not an "ace". But at the very worst he's a below average #1 or excellent #2.
