Kazmir is light years ahead of Willis - and he's been extraordinarily consistent. Wandy Rodriguez was better than Willis last year.
The Astros were involved in plenty of 1-0 games in 2005... and they went to the World Series. I'd trade every stud hitter we have for a guaranteed stud pitcher. Name a team that has ever been bad with quality pitching... there isn't one (while there have been PLENTY of great offensive teams that go nowhere).
The only way you get to the playoffs through offense is if you are a powerhouse who spends a bunch of money, i.e. phili and yanks. Everyone else gets in with good pitching. The astros dont spend anywhere near the amount those teams do so the key is good pitching.
Remember when the Astros traded 3 quality prosepcts for Randy Johnson? We got to the playoffs. Johnson pitched 2 games in the playoffs and he lost both of them by two runs or less. He gave up very few...but we didn't score for him. If you can't score runs (which recently has been this club's big problem), you won't go anywhere either. I'm not saying we don't need pitching help...I'm just saying you cannot afford to overpay for it.
The Astros lost that series because they went up against a DOMINATING Kevin Brown... who was the best pitcher in all of baseball during that playoffs. They faced dominating pitching that ENTIRE run from 1997-1999 and couldn't do anything... despite having PLENTY of offensive firepower (a HOF-level Biggio, Bagwell in his prime). The Padres certainly didn't win because they were an offensive juggernaut. Contrast 2005... where the Astros offense was far worse than the one in 1998. But alas, there was no more Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Kevin Brown around to shut us down (there was still Smoltzie... who did dominate us in game 2 NLDS), and the team was able to score plenty of runs with the likes of Ensberg, Lane, Burke, and Willy Taveras getting plenty of AB's (and carried by Berkman). Are you telling me that core is better than Biggio-Bagwell-Bell-Spiers? Hell no it wasn't. If I had to overpay for anything in baseball... it would be pitching (and then some).
They lost that series to the Padres because of the BS major league playoff schedule that year...our deep starting staff was neutralized by that crap, so we had to face their best in every game. That sucked. That was our title team right there.
Costanzo, Troy Patton, and change for Willis. Do it! C'mon Wade. Anyway, in 98 if I recall, it wasn't Kevin Brown that was the surprise (he always killed a righty hitting lineup with that slider) but it was Sterling Hitchcock that really killed us that year. He looked like Tom Glavine against us that series and that was it. Honestly, those 97-99 'Stros had a poorly constructed lineup. Too many righty high strikeout guys like Derek Bell and Sean Berry, hell even Ricky Gutierrez was striking out like Reggie Jackson.
We got to throw Randy Johnson twice, Reynolds once, and Hampton once... that's about as good as you can get in a 5 game series (unless you wanted Cy Lima to make an appearence). We got beat because their pitching was better than ours 3 out of 4 games, two of them being because of Kevin Brown. Our lineup core - Biggio, Bagwell, Alou, Bell, Spiers was better than anything we had in 2005.
I think I would have a hard time justifying Troy Patton for Willis straight up. Two years ago he was average, last year he was well below average, and he has been ridden like a rented mule for the last four years. Before you even consider the money issue, I think there is a decent chance going forward that Patton puts up better numbers. I think when you look at the cost/performance ratio Patton is a clear winner. I don't think you can count on Willis to be anything more than a bad #2/decent #3 pitcher going forward. It’s not exactly like he is some masterful wily skilled pitcher who will be able to adjust by adding new pitches and hitting locations if his velocity goes and he is just about free agent eligible. Willis kind of strikes me as a hot potato that could really blow up in your face and be a repeat of Jason Jennings.
Exactly. The Marlins are hoping that teams will trade for Willis based on what he did his first 3 years in the league rather than what he has done the last two seasons. Somebody will overpay for Willis...and they will regret it.
While we're at it...lets trade Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson. After all...you have to be willing to overpay for pitching.
Ok, found numbers on Kazmir. A thousand apologies. This guy is young and he throws strikes. Basically I thought the only player worth going after in TB is Crawford. Oh yeah, and Kazmir is a hometown boy. Anyway not bad numbers last year ... Kazmir 13-9 3.48 239 K, 88 walks. On the Devil Rays? I admit I messed up. Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=431148
So Dontrelle Willis, the 25 year old former ROY and two time all-star, is Larry Andersen, the 37 year old journeyman middle reliever, and Troy Patton, the soft tossing lefty poor man's Terry Mulholland who wasn't among the top 10 or 15 pitching prospects in baseball last year, is Jeff Bagwell? I just want to make sure I have my analogy correct.
In addition, its not about just paying money, its getting REAL value for your efforts. I mean we've thrown some money to get FA pitchers some have worked out even albeit temporarily ... some, oh well ... back to the old drawing board (Jennings) eggad! Good: Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, Pettitte, Clemens. On the fence: Woody. He's still got a lot of grit and guile. How much he has left is to be determined but, he at least kept us competitive in ball games more than I can say for Jennings. Bad: Drabek, Swindell, Jennings (oh God, were we on crack when we signed this scrub or what?) and my all time gagger, Bob " I suck so bad that suck is not a good enough term to describe me and I am a classic choker, no clutch pitching, and every time I pitch I ALWAYS give up at least one homerun " Knepper. God I hated that guy
Ok, see from last year Willis was not that great but, is it a case of that he's just overrated and really is more style and fluff than substance or does he have ANY game left? I mean he's still young too. Just thought another lefty in the rotation would give us an advantage over a lot of teams in the matchup category. Agree, after seeing the numbers though it appears that Kazmir definitely has more upside potential than Willis. Wow, who would've ever thunk that? Just a few years ago, D-Train was prime time and now ... amazing how fast they can fall off the map.
Yeah -the Astros problem last year wasn't the payroll, but how it was spent. We had a lot of money tied up in "scrub" level talent last year: Ausmus: $4 million Biggio: $5.15 million Ensberg: $4.35 million Jennings: $5.5 million W. Williams: $6 million All of that money except Williams is cleared out. Lidge's $5.35 million also is gone. That leaves a lot of money if the Astros can figure out where to wisely spend it.
He could very well bounce back - but from 2005 to 2007, all of his numbers progressively got worse - ERA, walks, WHIP, BAA went up; strikeouts went down. That's not a good sign at all. His weird mechanics may be bad for his body, and it may make it hard for him to tweak his style. He pitched a ton of innings for the Marlins, so it may be coming back to haunt him. Regardless, he's a huge risk at this point because of his declining numbers. If you're going to trade for him, you have to be planning to sign him to a long-term extension - in which case you could get locked into a very bad long-term deal with a screwed up pitcher.
Actually I was referring to Hunter Pence as the Jeff Bagwell analogy. I am not saying that he will mean as much as Bags, but he is at least a 4 tool player (speed, average, defense, power). This is probably a good time to mention that while Willis won the ROY in 2003, who was the 2002 ROY? JASON JENNINGS. Yes, Jennings was damaged goods. But there are concerns as to Willis' longevity and durability. See his 5.17 ERA last year. Yet there are some on this board who seem to want to give up a ton of talent to land him. I wonder if these were the same people who went berzerk when we gave up a ton to get the 2002 ROY.
