If he has the capability to duplicate his 2005, why not give him a chance? Its not like he's going to be a starter on opening day... he's clearly going to have to play his way into the lineup. But, he remains a good option to have in case of injury, off the bench, or in case Scott starts slumping big-time.
i'm not a lane fan at all. i've been saying for the past 2 seasons that he's far and away my least favorite Astro. but i think his bat off the bench could prove valuable. if we get anything more than that, it's just gravy.
According to justice's blog, we were after delluci, a guy that Ive always liked, to share right field with scott. I still hope they go outside the organization for a platoon situation, maybe take a flyer on jose guillen if he isnt too expensive.
If Jason Lane and Willy Taveras are pushing each other, I'll take it. Lane is a great defensive RF, I would suspect that he'll be at least decent in CF. And with two of them fighting for a spot, it's possible that one of them shows a decent bat.
Baseball Prospectus on the Lee signing http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5727&PHPSESSID=f3db5dc9a4d9573cc3e6b6298ff26ca2 So as you might guess, Matthews was the lead man on my list of free agents I wouldn’t touch. Another one, Carlos Lee, signed a six-year, $100-million contract with the Astros. For the life of me, I don’t get the fascination with Lee, a poor defensive left fielder with a bad body who’s past his peak and who was never that good during it. OK, that’s a little hyperbolic. My objection to Lee isn’t that he’s a bad player—he’s much better than Matthews, for instance—but that he’s not one of the best hitters in the game and he never has been. He was 44th in MLB in Marginal Lineup Value in 2006 (min: 300 PA), 92nd in 2005, 36th in 2004. He’s very durable, which has led to excellent counting stats and, now, a heck of a lot of money, but he’s not a great player, he’s not an impact hitter. Add in that he’s put on a lot of weight and he’s signed from 31-36, and the chances are that his playing time will take a hit. Lee is being paid like a superstar when he’s never been one, and any loss in performance or durability is going to expose this contract as a terrible one. With no baserunning or defensive value to speak of, Lee has to be worth $17 million a year with the bat. Even in a park that caters to his skill set, I doubt he’ll reach that mark more than once during the deal. The contract made little sense for the Astros, who after this signing still have OBP sinks at four lineup spots and a starting rotation consisting of Roy Oswalt and David Carr. Left fielders who can hit for power and not play any defense are a dime a dozen; consider that the Indians added David Dellucci for nearly $90 million less than the Astros will pay for Lee, and they will get a decent approximation of Lee’s output by platooning Dellucci and Jason Michaels, with much better defense. The Astros will struggles to score runs next year even with Lee, because no team can carry Brad Ausmus, Craig Biggio, Willy Taveras and Adam Everett and have a credible offense. Matthews and Lee topped the no-sign list. The others on it include:
You really dont understand the fascination of having Lee backup Berkman in the lineup? Well if you checked Lee's stats you would see that he has been mister consistent for the past 4 years! He's averaging 30+ Homers, 100+ RBI's he has a lifetime average of .286 and in the past 4 years, his average is above .300. He averages 1 strikeout per 10 AB. He makes contact. He's a very tough out. That's Pujols-esque! These kind of prospects dont just grow on trees. He with Sir Lance will make for a devastating combination in our lineup. Your other point, actually Lee has deceptively good speed for a big man which even surprised me and his defense in LF is no worse than average. Bottom line, the end justifies the means. He's not going to win any Gold Gloves but, he's not going to be like a "bull in the china closet" either. You'll see this is a move where the Stros management and ownership clearly, definitively hit the ball out, WAY out of the freakin park.
I wonder where Soriano was on their "no-sign" list... IMO, Soriano was more of a flash in the pan then ANY of the other free agents... this guy has had a bunch of good years, and finally has one great year. But, throughout those "good" years, he's had terrible OBP, huge K numbers, and has been an adventure in the OF. Oh yea, he's not only getting superstar money... he's getting the 5th highest contract EVER. Lee never should have gotten close to what he got... but the market dictated that once Soriano was overpaid.
I gotta say... Joe Sheehan knows what he's talking about. I do see both perspectives though. The Astros needed to add a power hitting hitter, especially right handed protection for Berkman. Yes, they overpaid. But the alternative was worse. Lee does produce, but it's a bit foolish to tout his RBI totals. He had a mediocre VORP last season. His VORP total for a full season was less than what Luke Scott put up in 220 at bats. I agree with BP in that Lee is a solid, but not a star hitter. What Sheehan said about the OBP sinks will be mitigated somewhat by (hopefully) a road/home split between Burke and Biggio. Also, if Lane really is going to be tried in CF that will take Willy's bat out of the lineup. Or Willy could improve his plate discipline, you never know.
The article is right. One of the misconceptions among baseball fans is the idea that a team can "carry bad bats" if their middle is strong enough. Either BP or BA did a study awhile back that illustrated that this is not the case. The lower the overall obp of the team, the less runs scored, despite how great a hitter your 3 and 4 guy might be. And Carlos Lee ISN'T a great run producer. The Astros need Taveras to improve, Biggio to have a much better year and Everett to improve dramatically if they are to have a good offense. Burke should get as much playing time as possible between center and 2nd and the Stros should make an effort to find a catcher under a rock somewhere that at least has a little pop in his bat. By the way, the rotation looks terrible right now. If Andy and Roger don't come back, the Astros won't be any good at all.
I see your point, but it is *not* foolish to examine RBI numbers for a 4 or 5 hitter. RBIs are his JOB.
