You are right, he'll help. I've never said otherwise. But, as the stats i gave above show, the reason why the offense was bad last year wasn't because of the production of the corner outfielders. They actually had played ok. Lee will help substain that production, but Lee's career averages do not represent a significant upgrade over what we got at those positions last year.
Thats true...and you're point is valid. This move does solidify an outfield position and he brings no question marks to the table. We know that we will get solid production from him. Thats something that isnt guaranteed with some of the other players in the lineup. We dont know if Scott can keep it up. Which Ensberg will show up? Huff's numbers have steadily declined over the years...lots of things are up in the air. It is true that this move may not improve our offense greatly, but its a move that stabilizes our offense and could possibly have a great impact on our offense if some other things shake out. Is it worth 100 million? We'll see. Bottomline is that we went out and got one of the best hitters available. In the end, I think it's a very solid move and Im happy with it. I hope it pays off.
Overall stats may say that. But the threat of Lee's power behind Berkman will make a huge difference IMO. There's no one on this team who we could've put behind Berkman last year that would have commanded the respect and changed the way they pitched to Berkman. Therefore, I think we've improved, regardless..
I'm not sure which players you are referring to when you talk about corner outfield production from last season. The club has made it clear that Berkman will play first base, period. So that leaves Luke Scott and nothing else. You don't know if the team can resign Aubrey Huff, or for how much. For the sake of your entire argument I'll let you include him as if he were signed. Last year Huff paired a .344 OBP with a .469 SLG, and hit 21 homers. 5.55 RC/27. Not bad at all. His defense in the outfield was below average. He played 36 games in Houston as a right fielder, and compiled a -3 FRAR. Lee mashed 37 homers last season to go with a .355 OBP and .540 SLG. That translated to a 6.86 RC/27. Significantly better, imo. Defensively, Lee is worse than Huff. At least last season. However it's worth noting that last season is the first time in his entire career since his rookie season that Lee has had a negative FRAR. He was actually a pretty good left fielder in Chicago. I guess we'll see if the short porch in LF will help him, and if he will be prodded to work on his fielding. Then there is Scott. 214 ABs, sick numbers. .336/.426/.621. 10.36 RC/27. But I think it would be foolish to gamble on Scott replicating production that would put him on par with Albert Pujols. The smart play was to add Lee, the proven righty bat to protect Berkman. I've been saying from the minute the season was over that priorities were signing Lee, then resigning Pettitte and Huff. I'd love to have Huff back, but to platoon at 3B.
Nomar, explain what these crazy RC and FRAR stats mean that you insist on posting in every thread. I would prefer to see Huff back as well, but the Astros aren't going to overpay to bring him back.
Come on man, google it. Runs Created is just a decent way of expressing offensive production. Fielding Runs Above Replacement just places a player's defensive numbers in context with the other players in the league and with respect to position. Fielding Runs itself just puts together fielding plays that are recorded like putouts and assists. +/- and Zone rating stats are probably better indicators but FRAR is better for context.
Don't doubt Scott, he is the real deal. Lee in Left Taveras in Center Scott in Right No need for Huff, just hope like Hades that Ensberg can play....and platoon Lamb in where needed. Also rotate Burke into the mix in the OF and IF until Biggio gets 3000, then flip roles and put Burke in as your everyday starter. DD
I don't ike that people are complaining about this. The guy is consisitently .300 with 35 and 115. That is excellent, it may be a ton of $$$$$ and more than Berkman and Pujols, but prices are inflated and thats what it costs to get someone this yr. And Puma and Pujols were not signed on the free market, they would get 20 mil a yr right now, probably 9yrs 180 million. and everybody complaining about Lee's weight, the guy stole 19 bases last yr. And dont forget that with the Crawford Boxes, he could hit 40+ hrs and 120+ RBI.
And Ensberg wasn't after he finished 4th in NL MVP voting? Scott has had about one full combined season in the big leagues... half of it was tremendous, and the other half was garbage. He may very well turn out to be just as tremendous as he was last year for the rest of his career... but everybody should temper expectations until he can do it consistently year-in/year-out.
Ensberg did all the damage in the first half, down the stretch and especially in the playoffs and World Series, he was awful. As soon as he got hit with that pitch vs. the Pirates it went downhill. Also even when Luke was strugging he still looked like he had a chance at the plate, and still got some good ABs. He was struggling and slumping the final week, but still managed to get a huge game tying hit vs. Pittsburgh. However when Mo is strugging, he is flat out brutal, he has no chance, and will either take a bunch of pitches and get lucky and draw a walk or strike out. I also thing Scott is good for .300 25 hr and 90 rbi. He was just great last yr, not much else to say.
I agree with all of that... I just think expectations should be tempered for ANYONE who has had only had one decent half-year. Its a game of adjustments... Scott clearly made one after his early struggles, and pitchers/teams will eventually do the same to counter his improvement. If the guy keeps improving, we will have the best 3-4-5 in the big leauges (which somewhat balances out the horrid 7-8-pitcher)
I wrote in the Soriano thread that charlie palilo was saying how much money was gonna be thrown around this year. He was saying that the owners made a lot of money this past season and now they're spending it.
I watched him for 2 years at RR, and he is the real deal, just like Burke he knows he belongs now.... Scott has always had more pop in his bat than Ensberg... But, man, do I hope Ensberg is healthy and producing this year.... If we could have Scott, Ensberg, Lee, & Berkman all hitting above .300 with power.......we could run away and hide in the division. DD
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that even if he has a good year, Ensberg won't hit .300. Even so, we don't need it. If Ensberg hits .275, Lee hits .285, and Scott and Berkman hit .300+, that's plenty.
BA worthless. If Berkman has a 1.000 ops and Ensberg and Lee have .900+, the offense will be sitting pretty.
If .800 of Ensberg's OPS is OBP (exaggeration intended), and he's hitting 5 or 6, that will *not* be pretty. If he continues to draw walks like a short guy and hit like a shortstop (Tejada et. al. notwithstanding), he needs to hit 2nd.
I have no problem with Ensberg hitting second now that we have Lee in the lineup. His high OBP and walk numbers make up for the low average if he has Berkman and Lee behind him to drive him in. Any return to near MVP numbers would be a huge bonus. I've got to think his numbers will be somewhere in between. The dismal numbers of last year and the superstar numbers of the year before would average out to a good major league hitter if he doesn't quite return to form, but at least plays better than last year.
