77-85 one long season. Cubs will be wrapping up the Central by the middle of June Cubs Cards Brewers Astros Pirates Reds
Man no matter how bad you guys talk about the 'stros they seem to be always there in the end with a second half push. We missed the playoffs last year by one game I believe. This year is pretty much going to be similar to last years opening day team just without Wolf and Wigington. We got a strong bullpen and hopefully Hampton can make a diffrence because it seems they are relying on him this season.
You may be right but by most accounts, the Astros overachieved last season. Statistically, we had a signficant negative run differential, below average pitching and one of the lowest team OBPs and walk rates in the entire league. And you quickly throw in that we're almost the same team minus Wolf and Wigginton, as if that is not much of a loss. I'm not saying those guys are all stars but you have to consider their replacements. Short of some serious overachievement, we will be worse at 3rd base and our rotation is unlikely to improve much, if at all. Remember, Moehler overachieved statistically as a starter last season and Wolf was pretty strong down the stretch. Even if Backe improves a little, which I have to assume will be the case as bad as he was last seasion, I see Moehler regressing at least as much. Moehler has no stuff so he has to be hitting his spots consistently to be effecitve. He accomplished that last season to everybody's surprise (including management given the contract they offered him) but will he be able to repeat that performance? History says no. The only slim chance I see where our rotation improves is if both Hampton and Wandy signficiantly outperform expectations (staying healthy would be a good start) while Moehler and Backe prove to be legitimate staters all season. That, or one or two youngsters come out of nowhere to contribute. I've only heard about one young pitcher that they think has any chance of doing that and it won't be likely be until the second half of the season. It sounds like the organization is that close to giving up on Paulino. You also have to consider Miggy's significant drop off last season. Whatever the reason was, he had his worst season since early in his career. He may bounce back but he may not. He may even get worse. I know there were a lot of distractions last year but are there any less this time around? Then there is the catching situation and CF. Quintero's strength is defense, not hitting (not much power and he doesn't get on base a lot), and we all saw Towles fall apart last season. I wouldn't expect much from the other guys fighting for a spot. So, offensively, our catchers will likely produce about what they did last season, hopefully a little better. In CF, will Bourn breakout or should we expect another year with a sub-.300 OBP? Erstad is a serviceable replacement and that is all. In general, we'll have to once again lean heavily on Oswalt, our bullpen, Berkman, Lee and, hopefully, Pence. Miggy bouncing back to his all star ways would be an obvious plus. It sounds like Matsui will be leading off to start the season over Bourn (according to Cooper) but whoever leads off, it would help if he has a strong season. That will lead to more runs to compensate for some of our pitching deficiencies.
I saw someone projected the Cards to finish 2nd. If you're upset with the Astros lineup, I can't imagine feeling better about the Cardinals. Anyone know what their over/under is on wins for 09? I think the Cubs win this division...and the Brewers and Astros play for 2nd.
Did the Cardinals lose anyone significant from last year's lineup? I know they added Khalil Greene, though he was terrible last year. I think a lot of it for them depends on if Ludwick is for real. He came out of nowhere, but he was remarkably consistent (5 of the 6 months, his OPS was above 0.900) so it wasn't like he had a fluke start or finish. If he is for real, then Pujols is better than Berkman and Ludwick is better than Lee. Then their #3 guy is Ankiel, who's probably similar or slightly better than than our #3 (Pence). After that, it's a bunch of mediocrity on both teams. Last year, the Cards scored 70 more runs than we did - and actually more than the Brewers (and 4th most in the NL). Plus, they get Chris Carpenter back, though we have no idea how good he might be at this point.
From the Venetian numbers in the other thread, it's: Cubs 95.5 Brewers 84.5 Cards 81.5 Reds 77.5 Astros 72.5 Pirates 67.5 I don't think there's any way the Astros finish behind the Reds, but I could see them finishing 4th.
My opinion may change as spring training goes forward, but right now I'm thinking in the neighborhood of 70.
I don't see the Astros getting anymore than 80+ wins this season. Better yet not in the upcoming few seasons but, hopefully they will pull it off somehow.
You know I would love for the Astros to exceed my expectations, but I just can't see them winning more than maybe 79+ games this season. I would love to be proved wrong since I'm a Stros' fan, but we'll see. 'Thats why they play the games.'
...as long as the Astros actually hit in the postseason, rather than handing him a 1-0 loss to the freaking Padres before watching him leave for AZ in FA...
Exactly. All the talk about pitching is bizarre -- they could be an above average staff with a little luck. The problem is an offense that has four black holes in nine spots. Moreover, even among the five spots that aren't black holes, three of them (SS, 2B, RF) are league average in all likelihood. The only two offensive players likely to be above the league average at their positions are Berkman and Lee. The only way I can see this team being competitive -- i.e. .500 or above -- is if Towles is ready to produce at the ML level this year, and either Johnson or Bogusevic tears up spring training/minor leagues and miraculously provides capable offense at CF/3B in the majors this year.
...or if Matsui stays healthy and Bourn turns it around and posts a .360ish OBP. Or if Pence finds himself again and the Blum/Boone platoon has a "career year" and resembles Wallygarner. There are several scenarios that could turn this offense up beyond "pedestrian," but they are all a bit far-fetched.
