We don't know what Castro can do, and we won't know how he works with our pitchers until he's here. Supposedly a large part of Castro's value is in his ability to manage games. Castro has to come up this season so he can work with our pitching staff. He will be the opening day starter next year, and you want him as familiar with the ML guys as possible.
I'm cool with a little exposure but as of now, these are the facts: 1. He is struggling mightily to hit AAA pitching. He's been better over the past two weeks but, overall, he's struggling mightily in a hitter-friendly league. 2. He played 1B for the first 2 of his 3 years at Stanford. He played 1B and OF for his entire season in the Cape Cod League. He has barely a season's worth of experience calling games at the pro level. All I'm saying is that he is not and will not be ready to catch regularly in the majors this season. He is best served to catch everyday at the AAA level while continuing to make adjustments as a hitter. Calling him up to get his feet wet for a few games at the end of the season after RR's season is over like they did with Towles in '07 is cool. Even then, he probaby doesn't start more than a few games, if that. As far as the Giants are concerned, I bet there is a good chance they would have kept Posey down up to this point even if they were not a contender. They still wouldn't want to have a converted infielder catching the likes of Lincecum and Cain on a regular basis until he got in a lot of work calling games at the lower levels. Even the most elite catchers in the game typically spent a few years in the minors for this very reason.
He's had a good OBP all year, and now his average is starting to come around. I wouldn't call that "mightily". Regardless, how one hits in AAA has been shown (in our system) to really have little bearing on their MLB potential (see Towles). If we're going to compare him to Towles every step of the way (which I don't agree with you doing), you should realize that until Castro faces MLB pitching, you really don't know how he is going to hit. All I can say is that I like his plate discipline more than Towles (or anybody else we have in the minors, for that matter). And if you wait till next year to call him up, he has zero games worth of experience calling games at the MLB level. You can slice it any way you want, but calling games for our piss-poor AAA team is not going to be as valuable for calling games with our pitchers and our coaches guiding him. You really have no authority to say things one way or the other... For most teams, in better positions than us, he wouldn't be ready. Those teams have regular veteran catchers that their pitchers have been working with for years, or they are trying to win games to make the playoffs. He couldn't be in a better (or worse, depending on how you look at it) team that he could get on-the-job training as soon as possible, due to the quality here right now. Most of those guys likely didn't come up through a system as degenerate as this one, where there is neither minor or major league talent standing in the way of his ascent. Also, can you name any catching prospect that was "ruined" or hampered by being called up too soon? And please don't say JR Towles...
When do you think he should be called up? And how much do you think he'll be working with pitchers this season in any scenario? Bennett said that he's likely at least a couple of months away. He also said that he needs more work calling games. I read some good things about Castro's ability to handle a pitching staff back in his junior year at Stanford. That's great but he still needs more work at it given his relative lack of experience. We all know that he's struggled mightily with the bat for most of this season. Let's see if the last two weeks are going to continue before we forget his poor overall numbers in the hitter-friendly PCL. If he hasn't proven that he can handle AAA pitching, he's not ready to face major league pitching. Again, I think it's cool if he gets called up for the last 10 games or so and maybe gets a couple of starts. All I'm saying is that I think it would be unrealistic to expect anything more based on his limited experience as a catcher over the last 4+ years along with his offensive struggles this season. I don't see any scenario where he gets a lot of work with our pitching staff this season. We don't even know who that staff will be by the end of year or who will make up our rotation in 2011. My guess is that they let him finish the full season at RR, give him a few days off then let him join the Astros in mid-September. He'll get a couple of starts and some opportunities to pinch hit. After the season, he'll get some time off, head to winter ball then meet up with the team in spring training to see where he's at. I wouldn't even write it in stone that he'll be the primary catcher to start next season. I would expect that but let's let him finish his first full season in the pros before drawing any conclusions.
I expect him to be called up in July, assuming he continues to hit better at RR. I'd guess he probably catches 3 starters, while Quintero catches 2.
Who's drawing any conclusions? I don't think anybody expects him to come up and succeed right away whether or not you call him up now vs. next year vs. mid-season next year, or when he's 26 (which is probably when you would give your blessing to having him come up). I'm just saying that more experience at MLB level WONT HURT, and he's in a unique position to be on a team that should be able to offer him that without much sequale.
Castro has absolutely struggled mightily overall so far as a hitter in AAA. I'm well aware of his tremendous walk rate and walk-to-strikeout ratio. That doesn't change the fact that his OPS in a hitter-friendly AAA league translates to very poor numbers at the next level. How players perform at one level has a huge correlation to how they will perform at the next level. The fact that Towles is an outlier doesn't change the general relationship. If a player can't hit AAA pitching, he will most likely be awful at the next level. Fortunately, it is too early to draw conclusions about Castro in either direction. The sample size is too small. What we do know is that he has yet to prove his overall ability to hit AAA pitching. Until we actually seeing him doing what he's done over the last 10 days or so on a regular basis, we just can't expect him to hit at the next level. Even if Castro gets called up this season, I highly doubt he'll be calling a lot of games. Like I said, I would expect them to let him finish the full season at RR then call him up some time in September, assuming he performs reasonably well over the next 2 or 3 months, which in itself is a pretty big assumption. Let's let it happen first. He's getting invaluable experience calling games at the AAA level and he's the number one guy there, starting on a regular basis. Even if he gets called up this season, I doubt he'll be doing much more than getting his feet wet. He'll probably get worked in slowly, maybe pinch hit a little and then get a few starts. It'll be more about just getting a feel for the environment than actually getting a heavy workload and getting to know the pitchers. Off the top of my head, I can't think of catchers that were ruined. I also can't think of many catchers that were called up before getting a few years in the minors, including most elite catchers. Aside from pitching, there isn't a more demanding position and most organizations give their catchers plenty of time to get used to the workload and skills required at the position. And again, Castro didn't even start catching regularly until his last year at Stanford. He's barely had one full season now as a pro.
What makes you think that I would probably give my blessing when he's 26? All I said is that I don't think he's ready now and I don't think he'll be ready at any point this season for anything more than maybe a "get a feel for the environment" stint with a few games left in the season. I could be wrong. That's just my sense. He could be ready tomorrow. He may never be ready. It's really too early to tell. I hear what you're saying and I have a different viewpoint. That's all.
And on most MLB teams, including the Astros of the last few years, I'd share your sentiment. But on this version of the Astros, with zero viable long-term MLB catchers, zero minor league catchers or talent at AAA, zero playoff aspirations, zero expectations to look respectable, a fan and media market that doesn't really care all that much about the team when they're bad, and a team that hasn't had a position player prospect have substantial sustained MLB success since Lance Berkman 10 years ago, I wouldn't oppose him getting the callup. A lot of older Astros fans may have gotten accustomed to being able to churn out position player and pitcher prospects in the late 90's, without having to pin our hopes on one or two singular players. Berkman was able to come up and get a taste in 99 and play a lot in 2000 on a bad Astros team. Experience that likely played a role for his breakout 2001. Same goes for Hidalgo in 98, which led to his breakout 2000. Pence hasn't had the breakout season yet, but again... he may be about as good as he's ever going to get (which is not bad, but not perrenial all-star good). Castro being about as good as Pence becomes invaluable if he's a catcher. Him approaching Berkman/Hidalgo breakout type seasons would make him a demigod on this team. Or, he can go the ways of the other Astros touted position player prospects over the last 10 years... Towles, Lane, Taveras, Burke, Ensberg, Ward, Meluskey, etc.
You all make a lot of good points. Let's see how it plays out. Truth be told, I'm excited about Castro's potential and am looking forward to him being the man behind the plate for years to come, regardless of whether that starts this season or at a later point in time.
Yep... but it also makes you appreciate how good the core of Bagwell, Biggio, and Berkman (and to a lesser extent Ausmus) was to keep this team as good as they were for so many years, without nary a consistent other position player developed that had any sort of sustainability (not only for the Astros, but in the big leagues in general). Sure, you had short-term gap stops (Alou 98-2001, Hidalgo's 2000 and 2003 seasons, Ensberg's 2004 season, Kent 2002-2004, Beltran 2004), but nobody stuck around. Had the Astros been able to churn out just a 1/3'd of what most other average MLB teams produce (in terms of position player prospects), they may not be in this position.
Castro Catching On Fast [rquoter]Following his longest summer behind the plate last year, Jason Castro, was told by the Astros to shut it down in October. The club's top prospect and catcher of the future had lost 20 pounds during the course of the season and seemingly ran out of gas. His first professional season saw him split time between Class-A Advanced Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi as well as play in the All-Star Futures Game, play for the U.S. team in the IBAF World Cup in Italy and in the Arizona Fall League. Playing a position that is notorious for squatty, husky body-types, Castro is anything but that with a long and lean 6-foot-3 frame and 210 pounds. "I have to stay conscious about (my weight)," Castro said. "I really need to make sure I stay on top of that and get my weight training in and still playing everyday. "It's kind of a good problem to have but I'm just trying to get enough calories in because we're out there for so long burning calories. Just playing everyday, trying to eat right and trying to lift is big." If the weight issues were a concern, his numbers weren't. The 10th overall pick in 2008 out of Stanford, hit .309 with seven homers and 44 RBI last year at high Class-A Lancaster in 56 games and .293 with three homers and 29 RBI at Double-A Corpus Christi in 63 games. Now that he has gained the weight back in the off-season, Astros assistant general manager Ricky Bennett thinks it will only help him with the bat. Bennett oversees player development for the organization. "From an offensive standpoint he has the ability to hit," Bennett said. "He's a left-handed hitter who can drive the ball to all parts of the field. "I don't think he's going to be a home run hitter in terms of hitting 30-40 homers a year, but he's going to be able to drive the ball to all parts of the field and hit with some power." Through Thursday, Castro is hitting .272, while also hitting his first Triple-A home run on Monday night. He's also riding a nine-game hitting streak that is his longest of the season. "I've put a lot of work into hitting, so here it's a bit of a learning curve and I'm getting used to it," Castro said. "The way that the guys pitch here is a lot different than things I've seen in the past. "I like to think of myself as an offensive catcher. It's definitely a learning experience compared to maybe last year in Double-A when guys were willing to challenge you a little more with fastballs." While continuing to get at-bats and growing offensively at the AAA level, his defense is his calling card with quick feet and a plus arm. "Jason understands that his opportunity is going to come," Bennett said. "Jason's done everything we've asked him to do. "Everyday he's in the lineup he is going to learn something different. The most important thing is to continue to get bats, continue to get the experience and his time will come - whether that is a month from now or three months from now, as long as he takes the steps to make himself a better player everyday because that's what we're looking for."[/rquoter]
I was just reading that three former Astros draft picks are expected to go in the first 2 rounds of this year's draft. Brett Eibner of the Unversity of Arkansas by way of Woodlands High School is expected to be drafted in the 1st round after the Stros took in the 4th round in 2007. Derek Dietrich of Georgia Tech is expected to go either the 1st or 2nd round. Astros drafted him in 3rd round in 2007. Chad Bettis of Texas Tech is expected to go in the 1st or 2nd round as well. Astros drafted him in the 8th round in 2007. Thank you Uncle D.
I seriously would consider drafting Deitrich again. I think the dude has potential to be a Tulowitzki type player with his defense and bat. We have that sandwich pick plus like the 40 something pick, I'm sure we can nab him in one of those spots.
Lyles with a pretty solid outing: 6.1 IP, 9 H, ER, 0 BB, 5 K Clemens went 4-for-4 yesterday with 2 HR and a BB.
