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Astros Prospects

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by BrooksBall, May 19, 2010.

  1. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    I figured it would be good to have one dedicated thread to discuss anything related to our prospects and/or provide updates on their progress.
     
  2. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    Lyles Spins a Gem in the Alamo City

    SAN ANTONIO, TX. - Jordan Lyles hurled the first complete game of his professional career Tuesday night in San Antonio, leading the Hooks to a 3-1 win over the Missions to even this series at a game apiece.

    The victory allows the Hooks (20-18) to keep pace with first-place Frisco in the Texas League South. Corpus Christi remains one game out.

    Lyles (4-2) spotted the Missions a 1-0 lead in the first. He walked Cedric Hunter with two outs and served up a slicing RBI double into the left field corner off the bat of Matt Clark. That was it for the Missions, who would not advance a runner past second the rest of the evening.

    The 19-year-old right-hander sprayed four hits and a walk while striking out five. He threw one wild pitch, which allowed Brad Chalk to reach in the eighth after Chalk had struck out swinging. Lyles allowed just one hit from the fourth inning on and threw a total of 96 pitches.


    http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/...id=10184382&vkey=news_t482&fext=.jsp&sid=t482


    ***********************

    Lyles now ranks 3rd in the Texas League in WHIP, 3rd in SO, 6th in ERA and 1st in IP: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_pit&lid=109&sid=t482
     
  3. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    The truth is, Lyles is our number one prospect. Based on what I read and the stats put up I'd say:

    Lyles
    Castro
    Martinez
    Bushue
    Mier
    Lo
    Austin
    Seaton
    Keuchel
    Bogusevic

    Obviously just my non-expert opinion. I've never even seen any of these guys in action, so its based mostly on stats, with a little bit of what I've read concerning their potential. I wish they would go ahead and move JD Martinez up to CC.
     
  4. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    Yea, Martinez is an interesting case. I think he was drafted in like the 30th round or something. If I recall correctly, there were concerns about some kind of injury history and his ability to play his position. I can't recall exactly. Either way, he's been tearing it up at the plate since day one. It'll be interesting to see what happens with him.
     
  5. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I figure they are moving slowly with him because Lee, Bourn, & Pence aren't likely to be going anywhere for at least a couple more years.
     
  6. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    With the draft only 2 weeks away:

    8. Astros | Michael Choice (OF) | Texas-Arlington
    No team in the top 10 has been as tight-lipped about its intentions as the Houston Astros. A college bat seems logical here; I don't see them grabbing a high school arm. If Cox is available I can see them going there. It's hard to see Choice sliding any further than this spot.


    Draft#:8
    Dylan Covey
    Ht/Wt: 6-2/200 lbs
    Position: RHP
    School: Maranatha HS (CA)

    Draft#:19*
    Kaleb Cowart
    Ht/Wt: 6-3/190 lbs
    Position: SS/RHP
    School: Cook County HS, Ga.

    Some other links:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Major_League_Baseball_Draft

    http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=8080130

    http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/MLB_Draft
     
  7. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    Jason Castro

    /thread
     
  8. Bojangles

    Bojangles Contributing Member

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    DEEZ NUTZ

    /thread.

    edit: HELL YEAH. I'm a contributing member now too! finally editing! ty clutch/moes/etc :)
     
  9. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    A quick look at his stats, and his OBP is an outstanding .394. I imagine scouts would still be very high on him based on his plate discipline. If he would show any signs of even gap power, he would be great.
     
  10. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    He's among the league leaders in the PCL in walks and BB/SO. What's really impressive is the fact that pitchers have little reason to pitch carefully to him given both his lack of power and lack of hitting, in general. He's upped his average a bit over the past couple of weeks but still isn't showing any pop. Castro isn't all that young either so the total power outage is a bit of a concern, esp. considering that the PCL is among the more hitter-friendly leagues.
     
  11. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

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    I know they want to be patient, but should Lyles not get a shot at AAA after the break?

    I've been to a few RR games this season. Castro seems to have the defensive side down fairly well. I don't see him getting shaken off very often, so the pitchers seem to trust what he's doing. Offensively, he looks tentative and is more concerned about simply making contact instead of trying to drive the ball, leading to a lot of weak grounders and pop ups. Bogusevic has had a nice start to the season and is playing all over the OF and all over the lineup. If it weren't for Jason Bourgeois' great start (helped by a game last week in which he went 5/6), I'd say Bogusevic would be the first called up in case of injury. Chris Johnson is back with RR. In 8 games, he's hitting .314 with 1 hr, 9 rbi, and an .845 OPS. If it weren't for a horrible outing @ Colorado Springs (possibly the most offensively slanted ball park in professional baseball) Wesley Wright would still have an era in the 2's as a starter.

    I wish they would find another A affiliate than Lancaster. It's inflating numbers and not doing the Astros any favors in being able to evaluate these offensive players coming up.
     
  12. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    At age 23, Towles played 61 games with Corpus Christi and had a .976 OPS (.324 AVG, .425 OBP).

    At age 22, Castro played 63 games with CC and had a .747 OPS (.293 AVG, .362 OBP).


    At age 24, Towles played 48 games with RR and posted an .870 OPS.

    About to turn 23, Castro has played 31 games with RR and has so far posted a .690 OPS.


    Generally speaking, being able to play the position, call games and work with pitchers are the top priorities for a catcher. As much as Towles struggled to hit, other than for that brief stint in 2007, it seems pretty clear that he had bigger issues behind the plate. The fact that they brought in an even worse offensive player to replace him in Kevin Cash lends to that argument.

    The point is that we almost exclusively talk about hitting when it comes to Castro. That only makes sense since few of us get the chance to watch him play and offensive statistics are readily available. Still, it would be interesting to know how he's developing as a catcher. I believe he converted to the position during college so I would expect that he needs to work on his catching skills as much as anything esle.

    Edit: As I was putting together this post, leroy actually said some good things about Castro's catching abilities. That's good to hear.
     
    #12 BrooksBall, May 19, 2010
    Last edited: May 19, 2010
  13. arif1127

    arif1127 Contributing Member
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    I'm sure the Astros still know what their criteria are, and how to evaluate players while at Lancaster, the main problem is the fans don't know what to do with Lancaster stats. The Stros wouldn't still be in Lancaster if they thought it was a hindrance to their evaluation of young players.
     
  14. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    Really, the Cal League as a whole is an extremely hitter-friendly league. I don't think it's true for all parks but enough of them to where the league is considered what it is.

    My understanding is that the Pacific Coast League isn't far behind in that respect so you could make a similar argument about our guys at RR.

    Here's an article on this topic with a simple to read graph and table (the table is sortable): http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/minor-league-run-environments

    Here's another good read on the subject but restricted to A and A+ leagues (it actually links to the previous link): http://razzball.com/minor-league-park-factors/
     
  15. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    Look at Gaston as a prime example.

    He played 62 games for Tri-City in 2008 and posted a very weak .577 OPS with 2 HR.

    In 2009, he goes to Lancaster and turns into Albert Pujols, hitting 35 HR and posting a .965 OPS.

    Presently, he's at Corpus and through 34 games has hit 0 HR with a .580 OPS.

    This is obviously an extreme example but it just shows you the effect that the Cal League can have on a prospect's hitting statisitcs. It means that you have to be wary as a fan of big jumps in performance like we saw with Austin this season until his recent slide.
     
  16. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Ugh, thanks for reminding me that we used to think Towles would become something. :eek:
     
  17. wallyj12

    wallyj12 Member

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    Here's an article on Choice from ESPN Insider (they have a pretty up to date MLB Draft coverage going)

    By Keith Law
    University of Texas-Arlington centerfielder Michael Choice is going to go off the board early next month, almost certainly within the top-10 picks, as one of the few legitimate first-round college bats in this draft and probably the best raw power bat on the board.

    Choice's swing is geared for home runs and he will hit moonshots, especially with metal, often clearing the street beyond the left field fence at UTA's park, according to area scouts. I wasn't treated to that kind of show but did see a swing with excellent leverage which, combined with Choice's upper-body strength, is going to continue to produce power with wood. It's a busy swing, however, with a lot going on in his lower half, from excess leg movement to an early, severe shift forward with his hips, so making contact against better-quality pitching while swinging a wood bat is going to be a challenge. He hasn't faced great competition this spring and is walked, intentionally or unintentionally-intentionally, very frequently, so some of his massive walk total is a function of his environment rather than his patience. (Lamar was beating UTA 6-0 when Choice came up with two outs in the fifth, and when the count reached three balls, they just chose to walk him. Since Lamar ended up winning 22-3, I'm going to call that some serious over-managing.)

    Choice is strong and has gotten his body into better shape than it was in last summer, but he's not staying in centerfield and I don't see the body aging well into his late 20s or early 30s. He's got an average arm and could probably handle right if he tweaks his throwing motion, as he gets under the ball sometimes and underthrows.

    The market for Choice right now starts after Baltimore's pick at No. 3 and it's hard to see Cleveland, Arizona, Oakland and Toronto -- all of whom have shown serious interest in Choice -- passing on him. The upside here is the Ryan Howard/Adam Dunn skill set -- grade-80 raw power with walks and strikeouts -- but in left or right field and from a right-handed bat. The downside is that he might not make enough contact to get that power to show up in games (the first part of "hit for power" is "hit," as a scouting director once told me) and end up a big leaguer who doesn't hit for average or get on base enough.
     
    1 person likes this.
  18. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    I think maybe you can see a little of that hip shift in this picture:

    [​IMG]
     
  19. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Baseball America
    January 16, 2009

    1. Jason Castro,
    2. Bud Norris, rhp
    3. Ross Seaton, rhp
    4. Brian Bogusevic, of
    5. Chris Johnson, 3b
    6. Jordan Lyles, rhp
    7. Felipe Paulino, rhp
    8. Drew Sutton, 2b/ss
    9. Collin DeLome, of
    10. Jay Austin, of

    Bleacher Report
    January 08, 2010

    1. Jason Castro-C
    2. Jonathan Gaston-LF
    3. Joivanni Mier-SS
    4. Jordan Lyles-RHP
    5. Koby Clemens-C
    6. Ross Seaton-RHP
    7. Tanner Bushue-RHP
    8. Polin Trinidad-LHP
    9. Jay Austin-CF
    10. Jonathan Meyer-3B/C

    Fan Graphs
    December 18, 2009

    1. Jason Castro, C,
    2. Jordan Lyles, RHP
    3. Chia-Jen Lo, RHP
    4. Ross Seaton, RHP
    5. Sammy Gervacio, RHP
    6. Jonathan Gaston, OF
    7. Jay Austin, OF
    8. T.J. Steele, OF
    9. Brad Dydalewicz, LHP
    10. Collin DeLome, OF

    Hardball Times
    January 28, 2010

    1. Jordan Lyles / SP
    2. Jiovanni Mier / SS
    3. Jason Castro / C
    4. Sammy Gervacio / RP
    5. Tanner Bushue / SP
    6. Ross Seaton / SP
    7. Jonathan Gaston / OF
    8. Brad Dydalewicz / SP
    9. Chia-Jen Lo / RP
    10. Jay Austin / OF

    Bringing Heat
    January 28, 2010

    1. Jordan Lyles-SP
    2. Jiovanni Mier-SS
    3. Sammy Gervacio-RP/SP
    4. Jason Castro-C
    5. Tanner Busche-SP
    6. TJ Steele-OF
    7. Ross Seaton-SP
    8. Matt Nevarez-SP
    9. Jon Gaston-OF
    10. Fernando Abad-SP

    Top Prospect Alert
    2010

    1. Jason Castro
    2. Jiovanni Mier
    3. Jordan Lyles
    4. Jon Gaston
    5. Chris Johnson
    6. Brian Bogusevic
    7. Ross Seaton
    8. Tanner Bushue
    9. Jay Austin
    10. Jose Altuve

    Houston Astros Baseball America Top Ten Prospects, 1992 - 2008
     
    #19 No Worries, May 19, 2010
    Last edited: May 19, 2010
  20. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Baseball America's 2010 list

    1. Jason Castro, c(41)
    2. Jiovanni Mier, ss(73)
    3. Jordan Lyles, rhp(91)
    4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp
    5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp
    6. Ross Seaton, rhp
    7. Tanner Bushue, rhp
    8. Jay Austin, of
    9. Jon Gaston, of
    10. T.J. Steele, of

    (Top 100)

    http://www.thebaseballcube.com/prospects/13.shtml
     

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