Astros (playoff contender remaining schedules)

should be a WILD finish.

 

Rangers and Indians are a lock so no need to follow them.
Royals and Yankees would need a miracle.
That leaves 5 teams for 3 spots: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers, Astros.

I think the East will either eat each other or separate into 2 winners and 1 loser. So I think it boils down to catching the Tigers. I think Detroit will go 14-9 over their remaining games. Which means Houston needs to go 16-8 and finish with 90 wins to make the 2nd wild card. Not very likely but stranger things have happened; certainly worth playing the games! I'd say the ~20% odds most sites peg is pretty accurate.

 

538 had them at 27% as of this morning.

 

Indians are 4.5 up on Detroit with 7 games left against them.

 

The Redsox and Orioles both have pretty hard schedule rest of the way. Royals and Astros seem to have easiest. Our games against Seattle will be pretty key, hope they don't play spoilers.

 

If Astros come out of this over 500(13 game stretch against 1st place teams), they will have the confidence to dominate the rest of the schedule.

I don't see them doing anything in the playoffs unless they get hot offensively.

I would highly consider going a 3 man rotation, possibly 4 with Musgrove throwing the home game.

One of the 3 guys would be a hybrid reliever day with Devenski getting the start.

This team has improved from last year. Just need the pitching to come around health wise.

 

Not that anyone asked or will care; fewer will follow suit but... these next few weeks will be sooooooo much more enjoyable if you pay less attention to the other teams and focus solely on the Astros. I promise. There will be a lot of fluctuating between now and the end of the year; heck, the M's were a game up on us on August 23; they now trail us by 4. Hanging on every pitch will drive you CRAZY.

Keep winning; that's what's important. And then see where the pieces fall.

[/old man lecture]

 

I see you've come a long way from using the "pace" metric to see where teams are going... good job! :grin:

 

Yep. If the Astros get to 88-90 wins but are unable to make the playoffs then so be it... I will still be thrilled with how the season played out after the horrendous April.

 

Actually, pace would be a perfectly acceptable way to gauge how far the Astros (probably) have to climb, which would, in turn, make worrying about the other teams less urgent.

The Red Sox/BJs/O's are all on pace to win 90 games. And as we get closer and closer to the end, that's looking more and more like a solid goal: get to 90 wins, see what happens. So the Astros need to finish 16-8. Better and they're probably a lock to make it; worse and, well - we're scoreboard watching.

 

Sure... but on the flip-side, as of August 23, you saw what pace the Mariners were playing at. And how that changed in just 2 weeks.

Also, the last time the Astros were 10 games above .500, they were playing at a very decent pace.... but that changed drastically in the 2-3 weeks to follow.

I agree that 90 seems like a decent target... that's roughly around the average number of wins for playoff teams of this era, with last year's 86 being an outlier towards the low side.

 

Completely disagree..unless the Astros miss the playoffs.

 

The fact that our Cy Young pitcher has had a 4.55 ERA this year and LMJ, arguably our best pitcher, has only pitched 80 innings bc of injury...and we are still in this position...that's amazing.

If both of those guys were healthy and playing like they should have all year, the Astros would probably be 8 games higher up in the standings.

 

But there's Hinch... so how can any of this really be?

 

If we can just win 3 of the next 8, going 6-7 against the first place teams, we should have a good shot. Last 16 games are all winnable, could go 12-4 finishing 89-73 on the season

 

ASTROS:
@ Clev (2)
Cubs (3)
Texas (3)

The Astros need to play well against these first place teams, to have any hope of making the playoffs as well as advancing in the playoffs.

If the Astros somehow play poorly the next 8 games and still get into the playoffs, you got to think that the Astros will likely be making an early playoff exit.

In a sense, these eight games should be like playoff games and have playoff intensity, since they will be a huge indicator of the Astros's playoff fortunes.

 

They have gone 10-2 thus far against Cleveland and Baltimore (who could both easily be playoff teams).

Wouldn't that also be an indicator of the Astros playoff fortunes?

 

Not as much as these 8 games as the Astros have no playoff fortunes if they lay an egg over the next 8 games.

 

Texas will inevitably collapse, and lose all of their remaining games. Book it. Statistics never lie.