On an average team, I'd tend to agree that they could easily find Fowlers plate production elsewhere, but on this team he's a vital part of keeping this offense from being an absolute joke. They're still going to lose more games next year with subpar offense than they are going to win with superb defense unless they continue to upgrade the lineup.
You're effectively saying you don't trust oWAR and/or dWAR, right? Certainly an ok statement, but I believe people have said Marisnick adds more defensively vs Fowler in CF than an average LF vs. Fowler loses offensively, according to those #'s. Even then, I think a full season of healthy Springer + his growth +whatever we do at 3B (something will happen) will help this offense a lot, even if Fowler is replaced. I wish Fowler + Singleton could net us a very high level 1B or LF..
Still looking at runs created and win probabilities based on that. I feel its a more direct route and established metric to calculating wins vs simply looking at WAR (let alone separate offensive and defensive WAR's which are still works in progress metrics). Not that I don't trust it, I just feel lineup construction goes beyond it. I think it's easy to say that Marisnick is the better CF but you'd still have to convince me of where the runs are going to come from and who is getting on base for Springer/Carter to drive in?
The runs are going to come from the other teams. I don't care if the Astros win 1-0 or 4-3. I don't think it is possible to convince you just like I don't think you have a chance of convincing me that Fowler in CF is a good idea. Even if the Astros trot out Fowler in CF over Marisnick, an Astros homer like me will still think it is stupid. Offensive WAR is pretty accurate and tracs well with runs created. Defensive not so much. I will usually say Marisnick is likely better than Fowler in CF because of the error rate in defensive metrics.
huge Matt Kemp fan but i just dont see him being productive for that much longer... I would rather use the money we would have to pay him on keeping guys like Fowler.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Gregerson makes $6 mil in 2014 and Neshek $5.5 mil, leaving ~$8.5 mil left of the ~$20 mil Crane said team has. That could stretch, though</p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/status/543222078602629120">December 12, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Crane really said we had 20 million to spend? Man they are really breaking the bank! that will make our payroll what? 40 million?
It's a moot point, but I'd much rather pay Kemp $15m per year than Fowler $11-13m per year. Kemp has MVP level offensive potential.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>neshek breakdown: $5.5M in '15, $6.5M in '16, $6.5M option in '17 w/ 500K buyout. '17 $ can go to $7.5M or $8.5 on GF <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/s?src=hash">#s</a></p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/543573985213296642">December 13, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Better than we had before signing them. Gregerson has been solid for a number of years. Neshek had a great year in 2014, but has had a couple of not so great years in the past.
Pat Neshek is a weird case. Because of his extremely bizarre delivery, he's as close to to a right hand specialist as you will ever see. He has consistently overpowered right handed hitters, but until last season lefties had typically fared very well against him.
Neshek was good a long time ago, fizzled quickly, and then was simply amazing last season. Gregerson has been consistently good. Survives on slider. Fastball velocity has dropped to 88. Should still be great at least one more year. Not really expecting much from him his third year, but is worth deal in two years.
