this is what i'm saying...no one is going to offer anything of that magnitude, however poor you think those prospects are. i think nick is highly underrating our farm system, frankly.
Maybe if they had found a way to get this done last year, Pence/Patton would have easily gotten it done... but one year later, there are some questions with Patton's arm to be a long-term starter, and Pence (while a stud) is simply one year older and yet to play at AAA (and with good reason, given his swing... but he still had more of the dreaded "P" word associated with him last year).
How about a Lidge/Lane/Hirsh package. Also see if they will take Ensberg. We just need to do what ever it takes to get Willis.
Willy T had the same issues regarding ball judgement, although his speed helped him recover faster. He seemed to get better with time at the position, though. I am not lobbying to get Luke in CF, but the idea does not scare me. Burke is solid, but hopefully he will playing the majority of games at second. Plus, he does not have an arm for the outfield. Just an idea...based off of the possibility of landing Willis!
the idea frightens the hell out of me. again...scott looks lost playing a corner OF spot, frankly. i don't want that guy playing the most expansive CF in the game 81 times a year. burke's arm as a CF is fine. honestly, my hope is willy is still in houston next season.
What is your assesment of our top prospects? I don't mean to sound like a Debbie Downer... I'm just basing everything on this: If the Marlins could get Hanley Ramirez for Beckett... they should be able to get equal (if not better) for a guy who's a.)younger b.)a lefty c.)a dynamic personality ( = sells tickets by himself) d.)a cy young candidate/runner up last year (Beckett never did that), and e.)a guy who would be an ambassador/role model for all african american kids which baseball could use to correct a growing problem in the majors (if Willis ever landed on a big profile team, he has the marketing potential to become the FACE of the league).
i think minor league players are a crap-shoot, no matter their name and what they did at AAA. i don't think any team expects a 5-1. you are correct that there may be another team out there that can offer a better prospect. but we have won out in trade scenarios where other teams were seemingly able to offer more before.
agreed(with wanting Willy in Houston), it just seems that any deal involving Willis would most certainly involve Willy. The marlins need a centerfielder, and they were interested in Willy this year.
If we could somehow swing a deal for Dontrelle, sign Carlos Lee, and re-sign Pettitte ... and then if Clemens wanted back you know they'd break the bank ... what an offseason! Oswalt Willis Clemens Pettitte Hirsch / Backe / Sampson / Who Cares? Ok, I'll wake up now.
That's all true... but we've NEVER been able to acquire a player like Willis before: a young lefty pitcher with all the potential in the world, and a ton of his career ahead of him. The closest I can think of is Beltran... and he was miles away from having the potential (at the time of the trade) that Willis currently has. As for minor league players being crapshoots... they are... but organizations still have ways of evaluating who is better right now (mostly based on age, position, and minor league #'s), and those are the most desirable. Most teams wouldn't have given us a crappy veteran for Roy Oswalt before he hit AA... and even then, nobody was forecasting a Cy Young career. But, just because some prospects pan out, and some suprise out of nowhere... doesn't mean that teams should just take whatever players come there way, regardless of their past performance, and hope to strike gold. Thus, the Marlins would still likely desire a prospect that is among Baseball America's top 25 rated (which the Astros have none).
i disagree on where beltran was when we made that trade. he was THE hot name among young position players. i agree entirely...but you asked me to assess our minor leagues. i haven't seen them play, so i'm not comfortable doing that without regurgitating what someone else said about them. that's not my assessment, that's someone else's. again...if we throw willy and a prospect or 2..maybe lane in as well..i think that gets it done.
Good article...This offseason IS crucial, lets hope that all goes well. Clemen's needs to figure out what he wants, and SOON. As much as I love the gu, we may just be better off spending the money elsewhere.
Yea... but who else was there at the time? Willis = 24 year old LEFTY pitcher, a world series winner, and who was the Cy Young award runner up last year. Beltran (at the time) = 27 year old 5-tool player who'd yet to hit more than 30 HR's in a season, and hadn't been in contention for any awards or won anything substantial in Kansas City. Granted, Beltran became a beast in the playoffs... and made his acquisiton for just Dotel/Buck look amazing... but based on his value BEFORE he became a monster, I thought the trade was more than fair. Willis already IS a monster... and I don't think they'd accept a package (Willy, Lane, prospect) that is even less underwhelming than the Dotel/Buck package we got Beltran with.
I'm going to side with Nick on this one. That's just not enough. Willy is not a good player. His OPS is pathetic and his defense although improved still isn't as good as it should be. He doesn't know how to steal or draw walks. Jason Lane is worthless. What team would want even want Lane at all? I'd say he's closer to being released than traded. Both our stud prospects values went down this season. We have no one to offer that Florida would want.
this is the nature of dumping players, nick. this is why it won't be a 5/1. because the alternative is they pay him money in arbitration. teams looking to dump salary usually give up a "monster" and on paper don't seem to be getting much back. time will tell how it turns out later.
The Marlins were clearly interested in Willy this year, and that was before the hit streak. Look at all of the young underpaid pitching the marlins already have. Willis is expendable, and the astros have something the Marlins want and need. We will not have to sell the farm to get this done.
i'm putting a moratorium on mentioning lane and/or ensberg as valid trade assets in regards to any potential deal involving willis. from florida's perspective, they have absolutely ZERO value. sincerely, ric's sanity
this is what i'm saying. trades like this aren't about matching value for value...because the marlins can't afford to match value for value. you throw out a package and 1000 other variables come into play...including timing.
Even if they're "dumping" Willis... they still want quality. They haven't traded him thus far because they KNOW they can get better, as they ended up doing in the Red Sox deal (which also got them Anibal Sanchez... the guy who threw the no-hitter).
