Astros Major Press Conference at 4:30 (UPDATE: Astros trade 3 for Jason Jennings)

This looks like a pretty bad trade for the Astros to me, but obviously when young pitchers are involved things can change in a heartbeat. IMO, Willy T has zero value to the Astros (offensively, at least - he's a decent defender). A speedy guy who can't draw walks and has no power isn't worth much to anybody except Ned Coletti.

Hirsh is certainly the big wild-card. He could be great, he could flame out, he could wind up somewhere between. I just don't think a pitcher like Jennings is worth taking that risk.

Jennings has had one decent year in the bigs so far, even when you factor in the Coors effect. In fact, Buchholz had better numbers across the board than Jennings did last year with one lone exception: home runs allowed - Buchholz was very bad and Jennings was very good.

Granted HRA is a very significant number, but Buchholz had a better WHIP, B/9, K/9, & K/BB numbers. So if Buchholz can improve on his longball rate, and Jennings returns to his career norm, an argument can be made that they are players of similar value, especially given that Taylor is a couple of years younger.

This seems to me like a panic move from Purpura after losing Pettitte and striking out with Garland.

 

You cannot compare Jennings' 200 IP+ of work, and say that Buchholz has better numbers across the board... Taylor couldn't even crack the big leagues over Albers, Hirsh, and Sampson by the end of the season, not to mention that he was very very shaky at AAA last year (and all his other years in the minors).

Couple that with Taylor's impending shoulder problem, his penchant for pitching 2-3 good innings (and one horrific one), and his overall inconsistency at this stage of his career... and the guy has bullpen written all over him.

Mostly every bullpen pitcher in the big leagues was at one time a pretty solid starting pitcher prospect... Taylor could be very good in the bullpen... but we needed starting pitching NOW.

Also, Jennings was sought after by a good number of teams, the Cardinals (our biggest rival, and weakened defending champs) being one of them... in fact, before our rumored deal Garland wasn't supposed to be tradeable.

For what's available, we got one of the better current pitchers still on the market.

 

I already said it on another board, but I'll rehash it here.

I'm on the "cautiously optimistic" side of the fence. I'll miss Willy T (especially with Lee and Scott in then outfield now) but he was blocking Pence, who could potentially be a very good outfielder for the team. I've never been very high on Taylor, and Hirsch just never showed any consistency at the major league level.

Jennings is a sinker ball pitcher who pitched in a bad sinker ball park and still had some success. He was a victim of no run support, so he oughta feel right at home here. Personally, I think The Purpatrator will sign him to an extension, so that's not a huge concern.

It looks like it'll be CF by committee this year until Bidge gets hit 3K. Then Burke will move to 2nd and Lane and Pence will fight it out for the centerfield spot.

It would still be nice if the Astros could sign Suppan or another established starter.

 

The only difference between Suppan and Jennings at this point in their careers is that Suppan just had one hell of a playoff run.

If the Cardinals don't even make it to the playoffs, there's no way that Suppan is getting $10-12 million/year offers. Both are extreme groundball pitchers, and Jennings is younger.

 

Cause that's not gonna be a problem in Denver.

 

The Buchholz-Jennings comparison wasn't really the main point of my post. What I was saying is that it's not unreasonable to make a comparison of the two, yet Buchholz wasn't even the centerpiece of the trade.

Sure Jennings may have been the best available option, but did Houston pay too high of a price? It all comes down to Hirsh turns out and whether Jennings continues to improve or whether 2006 was just an aberration. Jennings has almost 800 IP as a league-average pitcher and 200 as a solid starter - of course you can write off some of that as advancing on the learning curve, but you can't say he's a slam-dunk #2 at this point.

 

You also HAVE to include Colorado as a big factor... in fact, likely the BIGGEST factor to a guy who was still able to impress enough people to win the ROY in his first full year.

Sure, he's not a slam-dunk #2... but give me a sinker-ball pitcher who's coming off a season where he threw 200 innings with a sub 4 ERA, and put him in an environment where the ball actually sinks a lot more (btw, sinkerball pitchers are rarely "flukes"... they're very very effective if you have good groundball defense)... and I'll take my chances with him.

 

haha...i certainly did. ask my brother. very stupid, i know

 

Jennings pitched 750+ innings of league-average ball, even when correcting for the Coors park effect. I agree that there are reasons to think he'll improve. Using the ROY to support your argument is pretty weak, but other than that your points are valid. As I've said at least twice, Hirsh's development will be the key to this deal.

 

Good trade. We just need a decent CF now. Burke? Great! I am happy. Hirsh, bucholz are not going to do anything special.

 

I wish you would have posted this an hour ago. It would have saved Nick and I the trouble of debating the facts involved.

 

Yea, I don't know why I used the ROY argument... seems kinda dumb now.

Also, Hirsh's development will be effected by Coors Field... not just because of HR's, but because of all the 2B's and 3B's that get hit because of the super-deep gaps. (plus the fact that Hirsh was more effective in AAA by being HIGH in the zone... which spells danger in Colorado).

But, if he can get it done there... I'll be VERY impressed.

 

Now if we can just sign suppan that will do it. Let Burke play all year. Willy T was fun, but really he isn't an ideal leadoff hitter.

 

no your track record doesn't suck, you just assume everyone will suck.

 

Heh, does anyone really "get it done" at Coors? Can't see Hirsh succeeding where so many have failed. But if he can win 15 games with a sub 4.00 ERA, I guess that might equate to some incredible success there, right? Just trying to set the bar for what we're going to take to be able to call this trade a mistake.

If we just judge Hirsh's and Buchholtz's stats there without serious consideration of Coors, I don't think we'll ever come out on the wrong end of this deal.

 

you have just lost all credibility in my book!

 

True enough. If we re-sign Jennings this deal will always look good for us (even if we gave up too much) because Hirsh and Buchholz will look horrible at Coors.

I really like Jennings though. I'm surprised so many are hating on him. The effect of playing in Denver and how that affects pitchers mentally cannot be understated. The home vs road for Rockies pitchers are not good comparisons for that reason IMHO.

 

i predict 10 wins each for Hirsch andBucholz and 300 BA and 30 steals for Willy T .....

Jennings will win 15 w/ us...as for the other guy...idunnoo....destined for AAA....

I agree we gave up alittle too much in this trade....but i'm pretty houston is afraid that one of these pitches will become another Scott Earlton...

 

I'm curious about this other guy we got in the trade. I haven't searched this whole thread (dont have time right now) to see if anyone posted anything about him. Is there any info or any good news about him?

 

I have read through al 16 pages of this thread and I'm surprised that no one has mentioned one of Jennings' greatest assets...

(insert drum roll here) THE GUY IS A CAREER .217 HITTER!!

With Ausmus and Everett in our lineup, Jennings would be a legitimate #7 hitter in the lineup on days when he pitches!

As far as I'm concerned, neither Buchholz nor Hirsh has sold me as a star-in-waiting. I understand that it could happen. Hirsh may come back to burn us. But as RM95 said, there are no guarantees. Hirsh could very well be the next Scott Elarton. Ultimately, I like what we have now (Oswalt, Jennings, Woody, Albers, 5th) over what we had before today. If we can sign Suppan (unlikely), then I would be VERY happy going into the season.

I will withhold judgment on this trade until the season starts. We should all give Twinkie Purpura the chance to prove himself before we hang him out to dry.

I'm not jumpin off the bandwagon and I hope you guys aren't either.