That's fine, and probably the most sound approach (give Keuchel and McCullers time to prove they're back & healthy) - but if you think the White Sox are asking for a king's ransom now... wait and see what they'll want for Quintana once desperation and urgency are added to the mix.
Meh... they COULD get more for him when the market pool changes. As it is, the White Sox are throwing everything against the glass to try and get more for Quintana.... first the Yankees rumor is leaked and then shot down, now the Pirates.
CWS may get more value per WAR at deadline due to urgency....but he'll have less WAR due to spending half a season in Chicago. Also, right now there isn't any competition to him. At deadline, there will likely be rentals as teams have given up. There will be a lot of decent to great pitchers they become free agents next year and the year after that will likely be available at the deadline.
But isn't this the point? Sure, the Astros could get him slightly cheaper overall - but if they are paying more per start or whatever, isn't that a negative? What if the Astros end up missing the playoffs by 1 or 2 games? Then they got the worst of all worlds - they are having to trade more value to get their pitcher, and 1 year of his value was wasted. There will also be teams that didn't expect to be in contention looking for pitchers, and contending teams that suffer injuries suddenly needing pitchers.
That assumes Astros are the team that is desperate for him at deadline. Right now, Astros don't look desperate short term. Odds are much greater that Astros suck enough or great enough that a half season of Quintana is not a deciding factor. CWS want a team to overpay like Boston did for Sale. Astros don't have budget of Boston to do that. On deadline, Sale trade was much more like deadline deal than a typical winter deal. Considering the likeliness of CWS losing value if a trade doesn't happen in offseason, they are under about the same pressure Astros are on getting a deal done now. Think Astros chances are as good as any team at getting Quintana other than Yankees. I just don't see Astros trading all three of Tucker, Martes, and Musgrove because those guys are going to help Astros soon. Two of them would be fine with some low minors guys.
I don't see how the Rangers could even be involved. Why even toss around Profar's name? He has sucked or been injured for years now. They have a relatively weak system. Joey Gallo is their most valuable chip, and he is pretty high risk. I'd definitely expect the Yankees to come away with him. They are so loaded after dealing Chapman and Miller.
How so? If they want to trade him and wait till season, he loses value every game he plays. Archer and possibly Verlander are in play as well. If NYY or Hou trade for one of those guys, it probably uses prospects CWS would want. NYY, Hou, Pit, and Wash seem to be the Quintana market. My guess is that CWS would get best deal from NYY or Hou and losing one of those two as suitors would be costly.
You presume that no other teams will enter the market for starting pitching come the trade deadline. Competition for players historically goes up at that point, not down. More teams perceived to be in the race... or injuries/unexpected poor performance also causes some team to look for pitching that otherwise wouldn't have.
I assume he will played half a season by deadline approximately. That lost value for half a season is worth more than typical markup deadline. Considering the number of pitchers that will be free agents in next year and year after, there is no reason to assume more than the typical deadline markup. More likely he gets hurt and kills his value between now and deadline than he is worth as much as he is now if not more.
He's got so much control left that I don't think there's a significant difference between 3 and 4 years of control. The price will be similar, the only question is who is willing to pay it. The rays aren't going to get a significantly larger (if any) return for Chris archer and his 5 years of control than Sale's package or Quintana's hypothetical package.
Quintana is very good. A season of him..especially the next is worth quite a lot. If Quintana had 3 years control now instead of 4, the price wouldn't be that different as next year is likely projected by teams to be his best year left. Unless he has his career year next year, 3 years of club control after next season is likely significantly less than what is expected out of 4 years of club control from this season.
White Sox targeting Glasnow and Bell for Quintana. They continue to target pitching and prospects that have lost a little luster. This could pay off for the White Sox but there is a reason their teams soured a bit on these players.
