Astros hire Baseball Prospectus analyst Mike Fast Looks like it's pretty clear which direction the new management is headed. Should be very interesting to watch, at the very least.
I don't know if it is that big a deal. Most team's today value advance statistics and such to get undervalued players and minimise spending. They just balance it out with all the other ways in which they evaluate players. I'm glad though that, for most of these positions they are hiring big name people though, because if you are going to get a stats guy for the team you might was well get the Egg McMuffin of stats guys.
It's just so nice that we are going with Moneyball approach. Billy Beane said it himself, if you have that approach and can also afford a big name, that's the answer. We will be able to afford the big name in 3 or years when the team is decent again. All we have to do is wait, which is the worst part lol.
I think the waiting is a really cool part to see all the work that is put into a winning ball club. To see how much things will change from now till then. To see guys that maybe we undervalue start to achieve and become more valuable before our eyes. I'm excited!
Luhnow is smarter than Beane. Luhnow recognizes the value of scouting...says it can never be replaced and is ultimately more important. For all my criticisms of Crane in the PR department with the fanbase, I'm thrilled with his front office hires so far. Heard nothing but good things about Fast. For all the approach Beane gets credit for...he was fortunate to have 3 starting pitchers hit big at the same time...they did well...left for other teams...and he's never been close to replicating that kind of success again. but the idea does make for a nice book/movie.
Yeah. Moneyball books seem to spend a lot more time on hitting than pitching. Mulder and Zito were both top 10 overall picks. Hudson was a 6th rounder, so they did well there, but there's not really been anything to suggest Hudson was a "Moneyball" pick. I'd argue that the Astros seemed to be more non-traditional with respect to pitching, when they had guys like Oswalt, Carlos Hernandez, Wagner, and Tim Redding, who all had non-traditional pitching builds (short).
Well, except for the fact that they averaged 90+ wins per season through 2006, when the made it to the ALCS with only 3 members of the 2002 season contributing (Ellis, Chavez, Zito). But other than that, no success. Beane became a victim of his own success in that he was now competing for the same players as the Red Sox and other higher-payroll teams that now valued the same skillset. Beane was also extremely lucky that the primary skill that most teams overlooked at the time was one so critical to offensive production. I don't think he'll ever find the same success trying to exploit defense or speed simply because the don't have the same impact as OBP does.
Mulder, Zito and Hudson were all college pitchers who didn't have traditional builds, didn't have overpowering stuff and put up good numbers in college. I think all 3 could be considered 'Moneyball' picks.
So sad to see a post like this from you Max when I think you are such a smart baseball fan. The A's are run incredibly well. Their stadium situation is a disaster, they get no fan support and they have no money. They consistently operate on one of the lowest budgets in the American League and after they got successful nearly every team in baseball began stealing their concepts and their personnel. Beane's market inefficiencies are no longer there because rich teams now employ his strategy and pay those guys.
Also, the fact that Beane wants to eliminate scouting is another one of those myths that people like to latch on to that is completely untrue. Here's a quote from Grady Fuson, who returned to the A's in 2010 after the famous blowup that occurred between him and Beane following the release of Moneyball.
Well the problem is I'm really not smart. You've bought into my deception. My evil plan continues. My wife thinks you're not very smart if it took you this long to figure that out. I'm not suggesting the A's aren't run well. I didn't say that. I'm reactionary to the notion that seemed to gain traction earlier but which has been tempered significantly that statistcal analysis is/was a panacea. There's a direct line of the Moneyball book that says Beane flirted with the notion of firing every A's scout and simply using DePodesta's laptop to draft kids. That's the ridiculous mania that I react to with comments like this that prove I've been deceiving you when I created the aura that I'm smart.
Oops. Stats (Pythagorean) tell me that team really didn't win 93 games...they only really won 85 games. In that case, I'm not sure they qualified to make the statistical playoffs that season. We're still running the numbers...we'll get back to you
Mulder and Zito were both big lefties, and Hudson's not exactly a midget at 6'2''. Zito has always been a bit of a soft-tosser, but Mulder and Hudson could get it up around 93-94 if I recall. Drafting college pitchers early is pretty typical - they seem to have the lowest bust rate, which is unsurprising for a tight fisted franchise . Given Mulder (#2 overall) and Zito (#9) went in the top 10, I'm guessing they weren't "surprise" picks. Good drafting, yes, but I'd still say the Astros constructed their early 00's rotation more impressively with draft and follows and the Venezuelan academy.
I thought it was funny in the movie when the best they could do to try to portray a Moneyball approach to obtaining pitching was to get a reliever who "threw funny." As if production from a pitcher would somehow be ignored by any scout in the league because the guy was throwing side-armed. I wonder how many casual baseball fan movie-goers bought into that bit.
We live in a world that wants instant results. The A's have not been a good team in 5 years. Beane was and is good, but part of being a good GM is adapting and thus far the A's have failed to do so. Part of the problem is that Billy Beane is more into horse racing than baseball now. He has a number of interests and activities outside of baseball now that eat up his time.
