We saw potential in Toro, we just don't have space for him unless we were going to move Bregman to SS.
For what it's worth, ESPN gave the Astros and "A" and the Mariners a "D" for this deal. We obviously won't know the long-term ramifications of this deal for a while, but everyone in baseball seems to think this is a huge win for Houston. If you were waiting on Click to do something to prove himself, this was a damn good start.
We are the best team in the AL right now and we have glaring weakness in the pen. Getting one of the top relievers for the post season push is a win. We need one more pitcher and we are in good shape. Starter would be good because we can put some of Odorizzi and may Garcia in the pen for long relief. We know Greinke can't pitch deep into games.
If ESPN picks a side, you know it is the wrong side. "Everyone in baseball" is looking at short term effects and Graveman's ERA. Edit: Just to say, considering the context, this is probably the best deal Astros could get for Toro/Smith. That said, this is very similar to the kick the can trades the Astros made ~2014. I would be very happy if I was a Mariners fan as Toro helps them and they remove him from the Astros.
Toro will be a stud for years to come. He has that natural clutch factor. We should have gotten more out of him than this 3 month rental.
https://theathletic.com/2735222/202...-bullpen-while-remaining-open-to-more-trades/ SEATTLE — As soon as he switched clubhouses three or four hours before Tuesday night’s game at T-Mobile Park, Kendall Gravemen became the Astros’ second-best reliever behind closer Ryan Pressly. Whether Graveman alone represents enough of a trade-headline haul for the Astros will be better assessed after Friday’s 3 p.m. CT deadline, when all of the moves across the sport can be evaluated. But adding Graveman is at least a start for a contender that desperately needed to surround Pressly with one or two more high-leverage relievers. Graveman, who will be a free agent at season’s end, has revived his career as a reliever this year after a benign bone tumor in his neck forced him from his starting role during the abbreviated 2020 season. The 30-year-old right-hander from Alabama leans heavily on a power sinker that averages 96 mph. His sinker-slider combo has been dominant against right-handed hitters. The Astros can be flexible in their usage of Graveman. As he had previously told Mariners manager Scott Servais, Graveman said he told Astros manager Dusty Baker on Tuesday that he has no ego and will pitch in any role. For the Mariners this season, he pitched anywhere from the sixth inning to the ninth. In 33 innings across 30 appearances, he had a 0.82 ERA and a 2.88 FIP. The risk in the trade for the Astros is if Abraham Toro, the centerpiece of the return to the Mariners, blossoms into a major-league regular for a division rival. The 24-year-old third baseman has four more seasons after this one before he reaches free agency. Like J.D. Davis before him, he was blocked at third base with the Astros by Alex Bregman, who’s expected to return from his quad injury in early August. Utility infielder Aledmys Díaz, who returned Monday from his hand injury, can be the regular third baseman until Bregman is activated. With the Mariners, Toro could get the regular playing time needed to see if he will sink or swim. The rare swap of major-leaguers for major-leaguers also saw the Astros take a flier on Rafael Montero and jettison Joe Smith to the Mariners. Montero was designated for assignment by the Mariners last Friday with a 7.27 ERA in 43 1/3 innings. Smith, who came into the season expected to be a core member of the Astros bullpen, had a 7.48 ERA in 21 2/3 innings. “It gives us a lot of interchangeable parts,” Baker said of the trade. “It gives us a couple guys who have both closed and pitched in high-leverage situations at the end of the game. It gives us some more quality firepower and gas in the bullpen to go along with what we have now.” It wasn’t lost on anyone that the trade occurred a day after the Astros blew a seven-run lead in a loss to the Mariners, which was punctuated by Brooks Raley giving up a go-ahead grand slam to Dylan Moore in the eighth inning. Astros general manager James Click said the trade, which was agreed to Tuesday, wasn’t a reaction to Monday night’s collapse. “Certainly it was a frustrating game and a difficult game to watch,” Click said. “But at the same time, this is a deal structure that we had discussed in the past.” Through the salaries that exchanged hands in the trade, the Astros lowered their projected luxury tax payroll but only slightly. While Toro makes a salary around the major-league minimum as a pre-arbitration player, Smith is owed the rest of his $4 million salary. Graveman and Montero are owed the rest of $1.25 million and $2.25 million, respectively. Roster Resource still estimates their luxury tax payroll at roughly $208 million. The tax line is $210 million. “They got better,” Smith said. “I think at this point in the season, they’ve given me every opportunity to show what I could do. I feel like things are coming (along) and moving in the right direction, but then you look at the clock and we’re approaching the end of July. For them to be able to go out and add Graveman like they did, it will be a help to somewhere where they needed it to chase that ring. “For me, coming over here (to the Mariners), you’ve got a young team that’s hot. I’m going to get some opportunities to pitch. You never know in this game. This game’s absolutely crazy. … It’s weird. It’s definitely weird, especially looking across and how tonight’s going to be and tomorrow. I think we play the Astros two more times after this at least. It’ll be interesting.” While Smith spoke to a few reporters while standing by the Mariners’ dugout, the Astros took batting practice on the field. The veteran sidearmer, a member of the Astros since 2018, had been at the ballpark for about an hour Tuesday afternoon when he was summoned to the visiting manager’s office, where Baker and assistant GM Pete Putila delivered the news. Toro, a member of the Astros organization since the 2016 draft, was hitting in the indoor batting cage on the visitors’ clubhouse side when he was called to Baker’s office separately. Moments later, he was getting hugs from former Astros teammates in the clubhouse. Some didn’t know at first if it was real or a joke. “Crazy, too. I had breakfast with him this morning and he was telling me how much he likes the city here,” Astros centerfielder Myles Straw said. “I’m happy for him. It’s a fresh beginning. I’m going to miss him. It’s a brotherhood over here. But more times than not it’s good for a player to see a new place. It works out for a lot of players, especially the guys who have left here I feel like. Like J.D. Davis, like Teoscar (Hernández). I think he’s going to play a good amount here and I’m excited for him.” By 4 p.m. local time in Seattle, Toro was in Mariners gear taking infield practice with his new teammates. It all happened so quickly that he didn’t even have a chance to call all of his family members by the time the news broke. “I was surprised, obviously,” Toro said. “But just glad to be on this team. It’s also a good team, a lot of young talent. I guess the good news is that they want me here, so hopefully I can help this team win.” Graveman could make his Astros debut as soon as Wednesday, the same day Montero is expected to join the team at T-Mobile Park. Graveman wasn’t available to pitch Tuesday because he had pitched on three of the previous four days. The Mariners have tried to protect his health by not using him too often on back-to-back days; he’s done it only four times all season. He missed 16 games earlier in the season while on the COVID-19 IL. This was Graveman’s second season with the Mariners. He faced the Astros frequently as a starter with the A’s from 2015 to 2018. Tommy John surgery prematurely ended his 2018 and wiped out his 2019 season, as well. He signed with the Mariners before the 2020 season. After a couple of starts, he landed on the IL with neck spasms. As it turned out, the root of the issue was the benign bone tumor in the C6 part of his cervical spine. When he came back last September, it was as a reliever. They signed him again last offseason. “I thought my career was over at one point. To now be in that position (to be a sought-after reliever ahead of the trade deadline), it’s truly a blessing,” Graveman said. “I didn’t see it coming, but at the end of the day, that’s where I’m at and I’m executing pitches and I feel like the game has slowed down for me the older I’ve gotten. I think that’s a big part of my success so far this year and I’ll continue to take that forward, especially in the big games that we’re going to be playing here in Houston.”
I think he will be good and I know Seattle thinks he will be good but he does not really help us this year and we are going all in.
The math is basically that the Mariners are 23-8 in one run games and have been outscored by 51 runs. They’ve been very lucky to this point and are more likely to play under .500 the rest of the season than continue to win one lots of run games while being outscored overall. Even with all that luck, they are still in third place in their division 7 games back and a game out of the second wild card. They’ve got two better teams right below them in the Yankees and BlueJays, so their best case scenario is a one game play in against a better team that has a legit #1 starting pitcher. I get why the players are pissed, but the front office is being realistic. Graveman wasn’t going to be the difference maker for them this year, they didn’t think they were re-signing him, and they turned him into a starting level player at a position they will likely need help over the next few years.
IMO, the Mariners are the biggest pretenders in MLB. Maybe they are legit and really good at winning close games but the luck will run out in these close games eventually with or without Graveman. I think I saw they are 10-1 in extra inning games. That is insane and just pure luck. Astros have been shitty in extra inning games going off of memory but that luck has to turn as well at some point. I remember the Rangers were flukey one season like this and their front office decided to not make many major trades which was an absolute mistake and they missed the playoffs anyways. In regards to Graveman, I am excited about him on the team but Mariners and others in baseball are acting like he is Kimbrell or something. He does not have the track record of a Kimbrell so it makes sense to get good value out of him if you are unsure of resigning him in the offseason due to his lack of track record in the past. Is it more likely that something clicked with him and he will be this good moving forward or is he just having one hell of a season right now? Relievers do tend ride the roller coaster between good and not so good between seasons, especially during contract years. The Mariners could still trade for a Kimbrell or someone like that for one or two of their prospects that is blocked. Doubtful because they should probably be sellers, not buyers as I really can't see them going anywhere in the playoffs against some of the better more complete teams.
When it comes to this trade, you have to live in the now and not be afraid of what might happen in the future. Click's trying to maximize his chances of winning a WS. You only get so many chances. I can say the same thing when Luhnow traded Nottingham, everybody thought hewas the catcher of the future. He's now out of MLB. You gotta take chances when you've got a chance to win a championship.
I suppose I'm a little old fashioned hoping for sustained success over cyclical windows for success. But perhaps that is as much a part of the past as Dusty's in game decision making.
Verlander has made this transition when coming to the Astros. I believe it's heartfelt. As far as Verlander forgetting the Astros... I don't think so. He's just aware of his situation. -edit- I'd make a template of Verlander's response for future use.
What is the 'natural clutch factor'? In his 1/2+ season worth of stats, his OPS+ with 2 outs and RISP is 65 (100 is average), late and close games - 40, tie game - 78, within 1 run - 60, within 2 runs - 65, BUT, in games where the lead is more than 4, his OPS+ is 154. Clearly, most of these are small sample sizes, but there is no major league evidence where he is particularly clutch. There is recency bias with his HR against the Rangers a few games ago and the big moment in Verlander's no hitter but nothing else comes immediately to mind. He may turn into a good MLB player, but you have to give up something to get something.
I have NO DOUBT he'd rather have been healthy and playing than working out at home. But the getting paid part was a done deal.
I think we all want to dub a team as the "winner" in a trade and a team as a "loser" in a trade. That's not necessarily the case, and I know why the ESPN's of the world feel the need for such hot takes (also why I don't take them seriously). I think this trade makes sense for both teams. As an Astros fan, I am glad that we made the trade, as it adds a talented arm to our bullpen (which has been inconsistent for the entire season thus far, sans Pressly). But as a Mariners fan, you should be glad to get a potential everyday MLB player in Toro, for at least 3-4 years, for what; 30-40 more regular season innings? It makes sense for us because those [hopeful] 10-15 additional post season innings matter more to us, and is the ultimate driver of this trade for the Astros. Toro has talent, but hasn't had the everyday AB's to really put it all together. He was not going to get everyday AB's for us any time soon. So why not add a talented, yet unproven MLB player now, and see if he excels, or maybe even increase his trade value with consistent PT, and flip him in a year or two for a piece more valuable than 2-3 months of a great reliever? I am glad that we made the trade, but I also think it makes sense for both teams. Now onto Scherzer...
