Honestly, though, do you think the difference between that and having the #5 pick (like they probably will this year) in 40 rounds could make or break a farm system? Remember, under Luhnow, the Cardinals never had #1 picks... yet still replenished the farm just fine. To be honest, I've enjoyed this season MUCH more (they're better, in large part, due to added resources at the MLB level)... and they're still the 4th or 5th worst team in baseball, which will still allow them to acquire some quality players in next year's draft at that position.
It's certainly possible - but it may or may not be harder. The Fowler trade required some prospects that had come up and that Colorado believed in. The McHugh's of the world rely on identifying a particular uniqueness in the player that is condusive to improvement AND that guy being available - we don't really know how often that opportunity happens or if they passed on any of those. Signing a Feldman takes away playing time from other players. If you have to start him, maybe you don't bring up Cosart last year or Keuchel has a shorter leash, etc. Looking after the fact, we can identify the players that a Feldman should have replaced, but going into it, the team wants as much opportunity to experiment as possible. I would argue that while it's undoubtably possible to improve while being mediocre instead of bad/terrible at the MLB level, it makes it harder and/or take longer because you're trying to juggle two goals at once. Its much easier when you can make all your decision making targeted towards one singular goal.
Who knows? I think people would still be b****ing about it either way and those teams aren't making a run at the post-season if they're worst or 5th worst. The only difference would be the media wouldn't be whining about how the Astros have gone about this. We do know that we had the worst team in the league trying it that way. The Cardinals never had as terrible a farm system as the Astros did, so it's not a very valid comparison. The Cardinals had much more flexibility because they had both an established big league club and a minor league system. I don't remember the exact year, but didn't the Astros have one draft where not one single player made the big league team? Lunhow's goal is to be the Cardinals eventually and to do so, the rebuilding had to be drastic. Were you enjoying it as much in April as you are now? I know your comeback will be something about keeping Springer down until May, so save it.
First of all, they're still bad/terrible... what they were the last two years was basically something worse than a minor league team that has no business charging major league prices. I think they're smart enough that if they wanted to rebuild, but not be a laughing stock, they could have figured out how.... in fact, they basically did that this year. The primary goal of tanking was to have the first crack at "truly special" players at the #1 picks over the last two years... but all that happened was further expose the crap-shoot nature that is the MLB draft.
But again, they would have had the same number of picks as the 4th or 5th worst team... and Luhnow would still be making the picks. What they had (or didn't have) at the big league or minor league level at the time wouldn't have really made a difference... as now all the new draft picks would be the ones generated by Luhnow (and staff's) super computers that crunch the variables like never before. Obviously, what they did in 2007 would NEVER happen under this regime... my point is, having the #1 pick in every round doesn't really make or break the farm system. Well, it does go part-in-parcel of not putting the best possible team at the MLB level... its amazing what actual MLB talent and actual MLB players does for the overall mood around here, and the few others in the city that still actually cares about this team (even when the team is still losing more than 2/3'ds of their games). Its also why I'm happy with the improvement... but the actual number of games they've improved by is only made more impressive by the fact that they only won 51 games last year (and between the two feats, the only 51 wins is actually the "harder" thing to do at the MLB level, provided you're actually using MLB players).
It wasn't just drafting high, but also unloading every vet for add'l prospects as well. But I think the flaw in your reasoning is that the course we took wont mature until 2016-18. Looking at what we have now and saying it didn't bear much fruit is premature. Also saying that an alternative strategy would have worked out just as well without being a laughing stock in the process would require alternate biographies of both modes, which is impossible obviously.
Sure... and guys like Fowler, Feldman, Qualls, and maybe even McHugh won't be playing key roles on that 2016-2018 team. But they are going to make the transition to that spot FAR easier to tolerate (and wouldn't have virtually killed off baseball interest in this city... even with the improvement, they're going to end up possibly drawing less fans than they did last year). Also, I would have still been on board with unloading all the high-priced "talent" for young guys (or players that better fit the new regime's vision) from that 56 win team in 2011 (with most of those key moves already being done by Wade in trading Oswalt, Berkman, and Pence). My first post said I did not feel my question had an honest answer... and its all retrospection at this point... but seeing how the front office is doing things, and seeing what the true result of the #1 picks has been, I think they could have gotten the best farm system in baseball without looking god-awful.
I agree it is speculative, but I wouldn't be alone in assessing that we became a #1 farm (maybe #3 now) due to the very process which your saying wasn't necessary. At the very least, it would have taken longer, IMO.
Again... not saying they didn't need to rebuild, or that they needed to devote resources to building up the minor league team. The Luhnow hire was because he knew how to build a minor league system (as he was never the one who primarily built or managed the big league team in St. Louis). Other teams are doing just that right now, and are signing their top 5 first round picks, and are improving their farm systems in similar fashion. But this exact nature of a rebuild was never done before... the experimenting at the MLB level (while still charging non-experimental prices) has never been done before... and I'm just not quite sure what the relative benefit of it was (other than ensuring the #1 pick... which we now know is not really that sure of a thing).
I don't know if they way they did this was right or wrong or whatever. Here's what I know: 1. As someone who pays for tickets and has loved this franchise since I was too small to remember, I'm effing over it and tired of it already. It's embarassing; and 2. They better be effing right. They better put together something amazing, because they've dragged their fan base through one of the worst stretches of baseball in league history, and this league is ass old.
Agreed... again, hasn't this year been much better? I would have gladly taken three years of "this", and chances are the farm system simply benefits from a dedication to actually signing picks (and using the super-computer over Bobby what-the-Heck's abacus). AND, they would have still been able to draft Correa. Again, probably not saying all of this if they had three slam dunk #1 picks in a row... but I also know expecting that is totally unreasonable.
I'd bet money they won't be the Pirates, Royals, handful of other small market teams whose sole reason for existence the last 20+ years (very very recent history not withstanding) is to raise prospects only to trade them to bigger market teams and start the whole process over. If they are, I'll own up and admit I was wrong. If you want to be pissed at someone, be pissed at the guy whose name is on your alma mater's badass new stadium. He's the one who ruined this franchise and made this situation even possible. Where you expecting something different this year? Are you not happy with how they've played since early-May? They are most likely going to far exceed expectations this season, so aside from the Cosart trade, I'm surprised you feel this way.
You're surprised that I'm tired of my MLB team calling avoiding 100 losses a great thing? That I'm tired of hearing about how great minor league teams are while I pay for a product that's been awful? There's an effing sign in my stadium...in prime view in left field...that celebrates how close the Astros are to avoiding a 100 loss season. That's a joke. This franchise just raised prices after 3 years of fielding a minor league product. I care enough about this franchise to be pissed about that...because after Crane makes his millions selling it, my happy ass will still be here waiting to see them win a title before I'm 6 feet under. And when have I ever been defensive of McLane about his hand in all this? I'm just tired of it all. The "wait till next year by golly" pollyanna bull shi$ that our franchises hand us in this city is just so played out and tired. It makes it more grating that the Astros and Rockets do it while never failing to tell you they're the smartest guys in the room. Win already.
I agree with you that the sign is embarrassing and would've said as much had you mentioned that in your post. Regardless, the product on the field is better than it has been in a long time and the future going forward looks bright. That's why I'm somewhat surprised you've picked this particular time to be so resentful of the team. I just think too many people expected immediate miracles after McLane completely ruined this franchise before selling it to the man everyone hates. Does anyone recall just how bad our farm system was just three years ago??
The Astros *can't* win already because they were decimated at both the minor and major league level by the last regime, and baseball is not a sport that is conducive to instant turnarounds. If you want them to win - and not in a fluky way - then that takes time. There is no franchise in modern MLB that has found a way out of that process except if they simply outspend everyone else, and even that generally doesn't work. It's easy to say "there's a better way!", but can anyone point to a model franchise that's actually achieved that from the starting point the Astros were at? The Rockets are different and have been wandering in circles for far longer than the Astros.
Yes... and it was great prior to the run of call ups, and Randy Johnson trade in the late 90's early 2000's, without being a new sort of awful at the MLB level to get to that point. I give Luhnow and company full credit for signing the bulk of their draft picks and acknowledging that the minors do matter. Years like 2007 will decimate any franchise from having some long-term success. However, I'm still not sold that they needed to be embarrassingly sucky, and totally experimental at the MLB level to get to this point... but they also knew this would be one of the few markets that they'd actually be able to get away with it with minimal uproar (save for the local paper) and plenty of dis-interest. Again, I'd probably feel different if the #1 picks they got the last two years looked more like the "truly special" ones that other teams have been able to build their franchises around... hence the flukey nature of the MLB draft all-together, and why no team can achieve a successful rebuild without a little luck/good fortune.
There have been teams that have rebuilt without enduring one of the worst 3 year spans in MLB history. But it's not just the on the field product...it's the entire pile of crap they've served up to fans. They're an embarrassment.
If your case is that the Astros rebuild differs from other teams rebuilds, historically, then you should get little argument.
I'm not making a case. I don't have one. I'm telling how I feel about it all. I'm tired of it. From the Astros and Texans and Rockets. Tired of "next year." Tired of making excuses for them at every turn. We have 2 championships in about 150 seasons of pro sports in this city. Aside from Cleveland, there's no place worse for pro sports...and I'm just personally tired of making excuses for that like they're children. What the Astros have served up over the last 3 years has been embarrassing. And the way they've done it, they've set themselves up for massive backlash if they fail.
