You guys listening to Lance this morning on 610? I'm not liking what I'm hearing from him, personally. He's equating his worth to Beltran's. I'm sorry, but I can't get there. He says 5 years/$65 million won't get it done. wow.
Sigh.... Wait, you mean Berkman isn't going to take a hometown discount? He saw exactly what we offered Beltran and figures that if we can offer a guy who hits less HRs, drives in less runs and hits for less average all that money, that he is worthy of similar money. What is so surprising?
do you honestly believe that Berkman will command the same hype and money on the free market that Beltran did?
no...but he isn't a free agent and apparently, in order for us to lock him up and prevent from finding out whether or not he could command "beltran money/hype", we will have to offer him a bunch of money...if we don't, we risk losing him via free agency
let me help you out... How do you know? Were you in the meeting discussing the contract with Lance? How do you claim to know how much we will offer him? How do oyu know he even read the paper and saw what we offered Beltran? How do you know? You are assuming that Lance was being honest on 610 this morning.
there is NO WAY i would offer a beltranesque deal for an OF who should be playing 1B and can't run bases. he can rake...but he will not command that kind of money on the market. let him test the waters all he wants, if it's going to take that kind of money to keep him around.
5, $65m is less in terms of total years and salary than the Vlad and Beltran contracts, isnt it? I think 5, $70m or 6, $84m is fair (14m per). I wouldn't do anything until I was sure that he was 100% from the injury though.
rest assured, if we call his bluff and let him test the market, you can say goodbye to Lance when he becomes a FA
EXACTLY!!! But he set the deadline of opening day..so you won't know that. so he's asking the 'stros to commit to a beltran-type contract RIGHT NOW, or else. No one in their right mind would do that. frankly, i wouldn't pay him pujols or vlad money, either.
I think we've agreed in the past to disagree on the Pujols/Vlad/Beltran/Berkman comparisons, Max. I will say that I think you're being unfair claiming he's a liability in the OF, he's actually very competent out there. Just not spectacular. But he's done a credible job in MMP in LF, RF, even in CF, and we all know what a big job that is. I can certainly understand Berkman's decision not to negotiate during the season. He's not the first player to do so, I've seen many make similar comments in basketball, football, etc. It's a distraction during the season, players should be concentrating on baseball. Crazy concept, I know. If I were GM I'd concentrate on getting Roy-O signed to a multiyear deal immediately. 4 or 5 years, hopefully. His contract demands seem very moderate. I'd try to lock up Berkman to a 5 to 7 year contract as soon as the season's over.
Actually, they can afford to wait on Roy... he couldn't become a FA till after NEXT year is fully over (basically, he'll be in the same position as Lance is now only after 2006). He'll be shooting for his first back-to-back seasons of full health...which I know he can do... but its not imperative that we lock him up right this second. I would focus on Lance.... and they are. I don't think he's worth as much as Beltran, but he's not worth that much less than Pujols or Vlad. Remember, both of those guys took discounts to go where they wanted to... if either of them were gunning for the biggest paycheck (in the current market), they might have gotten close to Beltran-type money... esp. Albert (but, he wanted to stay in STL). Lance is an adequate OF, but his future is at 1B. Thus, his immediate comparison is Pujols... who is younger, and better. So, you give Lance 2 less years on his contract, and ther you go... somewhere in the 5/70 range... with some incentives tied into his health. But again... max... I wouldn't start to worry YET. They'll be negotiating in GOOD faith at some point up till the season (what else does lance have to do)... right now, he can try to be playing hardball because they've got plenty of time, and once again... what else does lance have to do.
It's tough to negotiate the value of an injured player, imo. You can't give him full value, because you have to deduct something for the possibility (probability) that he's lost something due to it. How much is a crapshoot, hopefully it will be little but who really knows? Carlos Hernandez is still a shell of his former self, for example. I think the fact that you're a year ahead of the timetable is the perfect time to negotiate with Roy. Isn't that the formula the Indians used with their young stars in the 90s? I guarantee you that Oswalt's demands a year from now, with another good season under his belt, will exceed what you could sign him for now. The tradeoff for a player signing early is stability and a guaranteed contract.
so he says, "they offered Beltran X...so now i know they can pay that...and my numbers are the same." sounds like he thinks he's worthy of a 7 year, $105 million deal. NO FREAKING WAY would I make that offer to Lance Berkman.
you're right..but if you take him at his word right now, 5/70 isn't gonna get it done. i expected a bit more out of berkman that what i heard this morning. i was a little disappointed in him, personally. not as a player...or because i expected a hometown discount...but for other reasons.
Given your response, here's a question - Do you trade Berkman at the all star break, knowing he's seeking more money than you're willing to offer him? Let's assume for the sake of the question that the Stros aren't in the middle of a pennant race. Presumably you could get some excellent prospects for him.
i don't know...maybe. if i really felt like he was not coming back, then hell yes i'd trade him...assuming we weren't in a pennant race.
If Tim Pupura were Billy Beane (he's not) and Berkman wasn't injured (he is), he'd have already dealt the guy away rather than risk losing him for nothing, knowing his salary demands. I still think we'll get something done with Berkman, but it's not going to be at any sort of discount. This is a smart guy, he knows his value, he knows what position the Stros are in, and I know he likes Houston but I don't get the sense that he'd take less to stay.
