Even if we come close, and he still chooses there, it will be more because he always wanted to go to NY, rather than Houston didn't show him the money. That's what these talks are for... to see whether or not Beltran has a honest interest in staying with Houston, or he was just saying the right things because he didn't need any uneccesary distractions in the playoffs. In the end... he'll end up wherever he's happy. It will NOT be a money issue.
I agree, it's way too much. Think of the guys we could get for that kind of money. I also agree he's not as good as Vlad or Pujols. I think his career average is about .280-.290. His playoff performance was awesome but I doubt he will keep it up.
Of course, in 5 years, paying him $15 million a year may very well be a steal. I think you have to match that offer.
You guys that are harping on his career batting average seem to forget he spent 99% of his career batting in the worst lineup in the majors...he had no protection. The guy is a 40/40 guy...period. He is right up there...if not better than...Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter defensively. RM95 put it perfectly...in 5 yrs, 15 million for an MVP calibur player is a steal....in fact, its a steal right now. I think the value we will get over the next 5-7 years at 15 mil per yr will far outweigh the dropoff in production he will have when he is 35 yrs old. I'm sure 15 mil/yr for 7 yrs would sound great to most of you...so if adding 3 yrs makes it happen, then they have to do it.
Yes, in the previous 3 seasons he has hit 26, 29, 24 while playing half his games at Kauffman Stadium. According the ESPN Stadium Guide the stadium is not HR friendly. It is 3B friendly and in the same seasons he has had 10, 7, and 12.
Sure it will...they'll be steals too. I don't think $1 million more a year makes that big a difference.
So you are saying that if the he says that he will sign with the Astros this very second for $15M a year you would say no because Pujols and Vlad are getting $14M? I would cream my pants to get Beltran for $15M a year for however many years the boy wants to play for us.
not saying that at all. i just don't think it will necessarily make him an exceptional value at $15 million if $14 million would get you a vlad or a pujols
i don't either..i'm just not calling it a "steal." you're still paying over what the market apparently bears for similar players.
I think it will be a steal in 5 years if and when players will be making $20 million a year. I don't think the cap is magically gonna stop at $15 million. If you disagree that the salaries will continue to rise, then we disagree on the basic argument.
i think we would be paying market value for a similar talent....and unless we are going to get that production elsewhere...whether it be via Jason Lane, Willie tavarez or the free agent market...we should lock in our production at market value
That same "look at what the future market will be!" and "he's a MVP caliber player, buy him at any cost" angle is what the Rangers were fooled into believing with A-Rod. And what happened? Rodriguez WAS a MVP, for a terrible team. And the market has softened since he signed, what, 4 years ago? We don't need to make the mistake they made. Offer market value, compared to what other players today are making. Don't re-invent the wheel by offering guaranteed 10 year deals. Max is right, Vlad IS better, and the best offer he got on the market got him $14 million a year for only 5 seasons.
i hear ya. i'm not sure what salaries will do...i'm sure they'll rise, but not sure at what rate. particularly given the a-rod disaster. listen, i freakin love carlos beltran. if they sign that guy, my son and i are going out to buy shirts that day! but 10 years is a long time to pay someone $15 million. i look at bagwell now and go, "man..that contract hurts." and he's just an infielder. an aging CF doesn't justify that....and the fact he's a great CF as a young guy is why he's commanding the dollars he's commanding.
but that ain't market value...you can't simply look at the per year and say we're paying market. his contract is for $150 million. vlad's is for less than half of that. pujols' is for less than half of that.
Guess what? We'll never attract FA's like Pujols or Vlad if they hit the market again. Generally those guys go for the big market. We have a single shot at one, and we have to go for it. Otherwise it's the farm system and mediocre FA's...that's just the way it goes in Houston, barring unlikely signings (Rocket/Pettite) due to another team's stupidity. Maybe once in a while we'll get an above average player if we get lucky...but when guys like this come around, they generally won't consider Houston. Take this opportunity and run...I agree he won't be worth it at 38 for the money he's making. Bagwell isn't. But would you have let Bags go 7 years ago rather than having him on the books for these last 2 "overpriced"? I sure woudln't. Beltran is in the class of Pujols and Vlad. He defends the 1st or 2nd toughest position at an elite level...and stolen bases are even more valuable now than before due to the decrease in players who can steal 30 even. Add to it that he's just now adding even more power to his game.. not saying that he'll be the same, but his career is similar (in some ways at least) to Bonds' back in the early 90's when he was 40 40. Different player for sure, but just an observation. Back to the point. Give him a little extra for the value he'll bring. He will single-handedly save the franchise from a half-rebuilding mode they would otherwise have to enter after this coming season. That's at least 2-3 years of heartache no one has to go through...as well as possibly another shot as early as next season. (Phoenix overpaid for Nash, but I think they'll be happy even if he does break down at 35...it's just not often Phoenix can get that caliber FA to come down there.)
wasn't kent the top free agent on the market the year he signed here?? i don't think this organization is doomed to never sign good free agents. but i hear your point, and i think it's a fair one. you have a guy who is clearly among the best in the game and is giving your franchise a serious look...make him the offer, no matter the cost. i just fear a rangeresque outcome.
