I think at this time, it's too early to call anything. Although if the Astros want Clemens, they almost certainly have to be in 1st place in the NL central around late May. Remember, the Rocket is choosing between the Sox, Yanks, and the Astros. And either the Sox or the Yankees are sure to win the AL East. The Astros have to be fairly good for him to consider coming back, based on what he thought of last season. It's still too early in the season to call anything, even if we're on a little roll. I'm still of the opinion that this team just isn't very good. But if our unknown pitchers continue to surprise, and Berkman totally comes around, we could most certainly get into the postseason.
World Series season before last -- last year we BARELY lost a birth into the playoffs behind the team that won it all. Throw in the hometown factor and I think we have the edge. If we can win early this year instead of having to make a end of the season run we have a pretty good shot IMO.
On the flipside, the Yankees have made the postseason the last 10 years and won their division comfortably last year despite trailing for the first half of the season. And if they are struggling in May or June, they have the resources to go out and get players as necessary. If its purely a decision based on who's most likely to make the playoffs, the Yankees are a no-brainer. But I don't think that factors in at all. Ultimately, Roger's more about himself than winning, and the ability to play while living at home and making $22,000,022 is all he needs.
If Roger comes back, great... if not, who cares. I'm not going to hang the chances of success this season solely on whether or not Roger comes back. We already know that him coming in at mid-season doesn't magically cure everything wrong with the team (as seen last year). We also already know that he's not immune to injury problems if he only pitches half the year (as seen last year). We already know that he's not much more than a 6 inning pitcher... in the weak-hitting NL. Finally, we already know that Roger isn't lights out in the playoffs... and hasn't been for some time now (as seen in 04, 05). Basically, Roger isn't a cure-all. I'm going to be more concerned with the health status of Jennings, the slump of Woody, and the continued progress of Sampson/Albers/Wandy/Nieve than I am over Roger.
