I'm still hoping the offer Crane makes is close enough to his other offers that he stays. He is very under appreciated on this site. He is one of only 13 position players w/ 4.0 or better fWAR each of past 3 seasons. (Tucker and Yordan are also on that list. Altuve can join it if he can get 0.1 fWAR in these last 2 games.) He also has 2 rings and is a respected veteran leader with an exceptional baseball I.Q. He is a proven post season performer in the top 10 in postseason history in G, R, RBI, and HR. He is 1 double away from top 10. Teams like Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox can throw money at him and up and coming teams like the Tigers and Reds have talent and could use a veteran leader to get over the top.
Nobody is debating any of that… but they probably want to have a better chance of retaining or extending other guys with more prime years vs. what Bregman has at the plate. They’ve paid him over a $100 million in his career here. He’s had his best years at the plate here and wont’ have “better” years elsewhere. If he doesn’t get a lot of offers elsewhere, I could see him staying here on a 1 year deal like Chapman got, but that’s about it.
I think teams are salivating at the chance to add Alex, and subtract from Houston. No chance he gets offered less than 6 and $150 and possibly much more. I just hope Crane is seriously in the bidding.
Gotta keep atleast one of these recent guys the Astros drafted top during the tank years. I hope they can keep Breg or Tucker. I doubt it's Tucker.
A reasonable starting point would be a qualifying offer for 2025 and a mutual option for a second year at the same rate if he plays enough innings to warrant it.
Tucker is one of the best RF in all of baseball. He is overshadowed by Judge, Soto, etc… But if he played in any of the major markets like LA or NYC, he would be more of a media darling than everyone but Judge and Ohtani. Tucker will be in his own zone, called amazing for the next 5-6 years; I see mind boggling number in that span. As for Bregman, I think his best days are behind him. But I tend to think he will be extremely solid and productive for the next 4 to 5 years of his 6 or 7 year contract. But as they say, you can’t keep them all.
Money and opportunity will out weigh the cards you're talking about. Say the Tigers d this trade. Blughbagh, lkePressly for Carpenter. Then invest the 14 mil back into Kikuchi. I'm thinking 14 plus escalators will get you Kikuchi for 3 years 60 mil.
Great post. This is exactly how I see things, question is how does Brown fill in the holes when Bregs/Tucker are gone? This and keeping the pitching staff together is paramount. Whith that said the lower mins would've ors is loaded with tale wont get will last. I just hate to see that Luhnow t. Luhnow truly built a dynasty that he wont get to see finishe If Brown does thing right this franshise should be contenders for the next 5-10 years. Thsi is with the screwed up Abreu/Montero LMJ contracts not withstanding. I refuse to believe those signing are things Luhnow would've done. Lets hope Brown can pull off the Luhnow deal Yordan for Josh Fields or the Click Staw for Maton/Diaz deal. The Stros need to find another deal like these. I',m not sure Brown is the guy to get this done. LMAO
Boras hangs up on Brown and never answers the phone again if that's the offer. Any deal under 4 yrs better be AT LEAST $30 M AAV. If the AAV is under $25M, the offer better be at least 5 years. He's 4 years younger than Altuve and will be at least as good as him over the next 5 seasons. Alex is having his 3rd consecutive 4.0+ WAR season. He has no reason to accept any kind of prove it offer. He is worth more than Altuve who just got 5 yrs $125
I do think that is correct. When we hear that Bergman’s best years are behind him, most would agree. But at the same time many people thought Altuve’s best years were behind him after the 2019, and he’s had amazing years in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Though he has been highly productive, Altuve has not been in any MVP conversation since around 2018/2019. By saying Bregman’s best days were back in 2019 and 2018, it just shows back then he was viewed as a top 3 MVP candidate. Since then, he’s gradually transformed himself into a gritty marathon stalwart. I don’t think many among the league even see him as an all-star; he’s only made 2 all-star games, (2018 and 2019). But even though Bregman does not give the .900+ OPS, he is invaluable to the core of the offense and defense. I know the Astros have Bryce Matthews who should be ready in a season or 2 at the most. But getting a player like a Bregman isn’t as easy as snapping another 1st round talent, because failure rate is high in baseball. if the Astros extend Bregman, they will most definitely be a World Series top echelon team. But by signing Bregman Is there going to be money left over to sign Framber and Tucker?
There might not be money to sign any of them. If they refuse to sign 10 year contracts, Tucker is gone. Then it’s between Bregman, Framber, and Kikuchi. If it costs you Framber to sign Bregman and Kikuchi do you do it? If it costs Bregman to sign Framber and Kickuchi do you do it? Very interesting off-season for sure.
I’m thinking about it and I would definitely sign Bregman and Kikuchi. As that would give the Astros another serious title contender run for at least another season. I don’t know if signing Tucker can be feasible, even with the best offer the Astros can muster up. Keutchel and Correa were guys that thought their imagination’s market value exceeded reality; it was especially sad seeing Keutchel face the reality that the Astros actually valued him more than any other team in MLB. Had the Astros signed them at their contract demands, they’d of severely overpaid according to the market. I can see guys like Bregman and Tucker placing exorbitant values on their next contract. But if Bregman is reasonable, you make a deal with him. Because even if the Astros were willing to give Tucker their version of the moon, they might be severely underestimating Kyle’s version of his own moon deal. You simply have to maximum Altuve’s window of opportunity, and I think that is where Altuves recent lobbying for Bregman to get resigned comes from.
Its become exceedingly clear that the Astros (or basically Crane) knows which players he figures to be the cornerstone/landmark types, and when he's willing to spend on said players (or other guys). Altuve/JV had already gotten that sort of treatment. It wasn't till Hader's contract that everybody thought they had the algorithm on Crane spending figured out... but that signing went against a lot of those pre-conceived ideas (spending at the upper echelon of market rate for a relief pitcher, and giving him 5 years guaranteed... is about as equivalent to offering any position player a 10 year deal). They'll spend market rate... and they won't over-extend themselves to have years of dead money when they're not in contention. The major key here is the development of Diaz, Brown, Spencer... and the expected recoveries of Garcia/Javier (along with Yordan getting some FA years bought out) effectively has renewed the contention window. If they can just hit on one more promoted prospect (Bryce Matthews) that has an all-star level ceiling, that then evolves into continuing to maintain a top 5 payroll, continuing to consider extensions of established guys, and continuing to look for quality additions every off-season/trade deadline.
There’s a lot of questions about this team for the next 1-3 seasons. How will Altuve age? Can Yainer take another step and be a true star player? Can McCormick return to his 2022-2023 form? Can any young players take the next step and be stars for the Astros (Dezenzo, Matthews, Whitcomb, Leon, Melton, Corona, Cole, Baez, etc.)? Can Arrighetti make a leap similar to Brown and become a ToR SP? Can Garcia return to form and pitch 150+ innings? Can Javier return before the 2025 trade deadline? Can Blanco repeat his early season dominance over a full season? Can McCullers provide any value? Can their fringey reliever finds (Ort, Scott) repeat their 2024 performances? How good will their other young pitchers be (Whitley, Blubaugh, Gusto, Ullola, Gordon, etc.)? and also: just how aggressive is Crane willing to be with payroll?
It gets a little easier if you just focus on the stalwarts and easier to answer questions... and don't delve into the middling ones that EVERY team always faces every year (including this year's Astros with all the required bodies needed). Altuve did age this year (discussing in the Astros season thread). He probably shouldn't be getting 600 PA and playing 150+ games ever, but the injuries probably forced Joe to extend him more than he should have. He will need to be load managed for the remainder of his career. Yanier has all the potential and tools to continue to succeed. Can't predict things like work ethic, staying in shape, or injury prone-ness at this stage... but given how much he improved at the C position, I would be surprised if he doesn't continue to get better and better. Chas doesn't have to return to his peak form, but he also can't be below replacement player production either. I look at him and Myers (along with Pena, Caratini, Dubon) as the stable of role players that all contending teams need for depth and occasional production... but none of these guys will make/break a season. Garcia/Javier had routine surgery and will be back after routine recovery.... until somebody says something otherwise. Spencer, health permitting, can also only expect to get better with his stuff and with this staff. The rest of the questions and answers will be TBD, but again, unlikely to make/break next year either.
If you think Arrighetti will take another step and Blanco will sustain his 2024 first half, then Houston’s rotation is set and they do not need to spend on Kikuchi. If you think Yainer will take another step and McCormick will return to 2023 form, then Houston’s lineup is nearly set. If you think those 2 things plus one young hitter succeeding, then Houston’s roster is set. Houston has a nice floor with the known factors, but the “middling” factors are what will make the difference between an 85 win team scrounging to make the playoffs and another juggernaut.
They need pitching depth. Everybody loves to talk about how they’re “set” there every year, and yet they’ve had to give up a ton the last two years because that depth is always fleeting. They’ll likely either extend Framber now or work something out with Kikuchi. They need innings eaters. Same goes for the lineup. somebody is going to get hurt and somebody is going to fall flat on the performance expectations. it’s why stars get paid and people who always follow or rely on prospects need one to succeed for every 5 failures to justify the perpetual “they don’t all make it”.
The real issue that Houston ran into this season was that they started the year with a weak/inexperienced AAA rotation. That forced them to hurry Arrighetti (luckily he was ready) and Bloss (he wasn’t ready), rely on Blanco (luckily he was up to the challenge), and throw a handful of bullpen games (Henley, Scott, Dubin) before making a major trade to add a starter at the deadline. That won’t be the case next season. Entering the offseason their SP pecking order will be: Framber Brown Blanco Arrighetti Garcia France Gusto Blubaugh Gordon Ullola That list doesn’t include McCullers (who could be ready for opening day) or Javier (who likely will be able to pitch sometime in the 2nd half) or Urquidy (who is likely to be non-tendered but would likely also be ready in the 2nd half). It also doesn’t include other guys with AAA starting experience (Henley, Tamarez, Kouba, Aaron Brown) or any pitching prospects slated to start in AA who could be ready for the majors at some point in 2025 (Hicks, Fleury, Pecko, etc.). Houston might be wise to add a Eric Lauer/Glenn Otto type AAAA guy or a steady inexpensive veteran BoR SP, but they don’t need to make adding SP a focus of their offseason, IF they assume Blanco/Arrighetti are legit.
