Lance McCullers, Urquidy, Garcia, and Javier are real big wildcards. There is a chance they come back strong, but at the same time we are talking about pitchers, and pitchers have been known to fall off the cliff even when they are relatively healthy. You add 1, 2, and 3 years of not pitching to the mix, and said players might as well be wishing on a star that they are even remotely effective. We aren’t talking about young pitchers, who tend to heal a lot faster. At this point I am mostly hopeful that Javier can get back to where he was before, his stuff was that deceptive fastball that gave the illusion it rises as it reaches the plate. But he’s McCullers bread and butter was the curve ball and that has made hamburger of his arm ligaments. Urquidy is just a work horse, he has a bulldog mentality but he’s always been more of a 4th or 5th starter, when his stuff is at his best. Garcia never looked dominant after the pitch clock came into effect, and just when it seemed there was a possible could make some strides, he went down for what has now turned into 2 seasons.
I thought, "Hey I can leave, I can leave" Oh, but now I know that I was wrong.... (hopefully when he realizes how much better it is to staaaay)
I just don't see his salary making a difference in 2025, but will in 2026. This team is going to be above the CBT in 2025 regardless. And I am more and more confident that Bregman is coming back. They need to duck under it in 2026, as multi year "offenders" and allowing Pressly to leave as a FA along w/ Framber, Tucker, and Caratini ( plus J.Abreu and Montero) is how they do it. The can sign Kikuchi and Bregman and still get where they need to be in 2026, but are over in 2025 even without them. Pressly's salary doesn't change that unless you are talking about trading him for prospects or pre-arb players and that makes no sense if the team wants to compete.
Bregman ain’t coming back. But Christian Walker will be a fine replacement for his bat. Kikuchi should be Houston’s top priority on the pitching side; anything <$75M total value is an ok deal, anything under $50M is a great deal, anything over $90M is a bad deal.
I still think it's a long shot. I was sure before the season started, but have grown more hopeful over the course of the season. I think its about 25% now and was under 1% in March.
It’s not 1%, but it’s low. I would probably take 5:1 odds. So 25% is not far off imho, but that’s still a longshot.
For Bregs? Its like 0.0000000001% after that send-off the other day. Both parties know. I had more optimism for Correa. I don't think Bregs gets even the token offer that Correa got.
I want Kikuchi and he said he's willing to extend with Houston but if he gets to pricey, I wonder if they try to sign Pivetta as a free agent.
I trust whoever they want to sign. No one had Kikuchi as a prime ‘must have’ target at the deadline, and almost all of us doubted it at the time, but they clearly had him targeted and saw something they could fix. They have the benefit of the doubt - and I’m sure they have a FA list that would confuse all of us if we saw it, but which I fully trust them to prioritize.
Pivetta is a guy I mentioned in another thread as who they should get this off season along the same lines as the Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha type under the radar signings they missed this year. Hope they get him and Kikuchi both. I feel like you need 8 capable starters at least these days with the amount of tommy John's going around. I'd try to get Foster Griffin back from Japan too.
Notice that Bregs never made the same comments that Correa made about wanting a long and big contract? Or is that an urban legend also? But in all seriousness, seems like Bregman has more than money that influences his decision. Winning being #1. His wife's family being local. Plus, potential business endeavors in Arizona. Okay, fine. He's leaving.
I say we are the favorite at 25%, but the rest of the field is 75%... Arizona, Boston, Colorado, and maybe St. Louis?
I'm saying if Pressly holds the cards, the Astros may decide the value proposition is to just hang onto him.
He got 2 years of FA and all his arb years bought out and has already made over $100 million in career earnings prior to his first actual FA deal.... they're not at all the same situation whatsoever.
Bregman should make bank this offseason. He is a proven veteran who has the numbers to back it up. He was instrumental in forming the valuable core of the Astros dynasty. It’s been said over and over how he is integral in giving useful advise to pitchers, plus his 3rd base defense is first rate. I’d like for the Astros to keep him, but it depends on how much other teams will pay him. I can see a team giving Bregman a very lucrative contract.
