Mayfield? Really I doubt he plays that many games either as a 26 year old rookie. You're talking about 6 years of regular playing time. I guess it could happen but I doubt it.
Dana and the Astros are also very focused on "up the middle". They will not move Mathews to a corner spot until/unless he proves he can't handle SS, 2b or even CF. I full expect Dezenzo to have growing pains. If they don't resign Bregman ( I am more hopeful as the season progresses) I expect him to start the majority of games at 3b next year and have a very inconsistent and mediocre season but with some huge offensive moments. I'm thinking Jake Meyers' 2024 hitting line.
Let me clarify. - I think Biggio is reasonable result, but Mayfield's career is still in play. He basically has 2024 Luis Arraz's skill set. Empty .300+ average = less than 1 WAR in nearly 600 PAs.
I’m not saying the Astros “lost this trade” or Will Wagner is going to be a future star. Ive pointed out the team is better this year and the guys they traded for the most part didn’t have a near term path in the Astros organization. Im not criticizing the talent evaluation or that Kikuchi was the starter they chose to target. I’m saying putting themselves into a position to have to address pitching in a sellers market at the deadline was a miscalculation. If your argument is the Astros had already solved for pitching, then why did they get Kicuchi? If your argument is they couldn’t have predicted the need, then all of McCullers, Garcia, and Urquidy were injured before the season started and none have thrown a pitch. Verlander was still building up after a late start. France, Brown, and Brown had been ineffective for long stretches because of overuse. I’m not smarter than the front office as the front office publicly said they needed pitching depth. The Astros had thin depth and had poor pitching results for the first 2+ months of the season. If anything they’ve been saved by player development and talent evaluation. Brown, Arighetti (second half) and Blanco first half over-performance were less likely than another pitcher getting injured or having a setback.
Except that the alternatives were getting $30MM pitchers that they may or may not need or paying $10-$15MM for mediocrity. I don't think not spending heavily on a major need was a miscalculation. The pitchers they wanted were simply more expensive than the value they assigned to them. So they waited it and used that as an opportunity to see what they had in their young guys, which paid off massively. And then they got a pitcher they wanted for very little money who wasn't available during the offseason. I suspect they are better today organizationally than they would have been had they paid $30MM for a pitcher or signed some mediocre 4th or 5th SP. They wanted pitching depth - at a price they felt was good. That wasn't available and they weren't desperate, so they went with what they had. How you spend in FA depends on what you think about your player development and talent evaluation abilities. Perhaps they just believe in it more than you do.
How do you plan for losing Javier, Garcia, urquidy, McCullers, JP France, and Verlander for part of the season? That's 6 spots on the 40 man roster. Somehow they lost all those guys and still have one of the best rotations in the major leagues. The front office did as well as they could to be in the position they are in right now. No team other the Dodgers are better run than we are.
Would you rather have Kikuchi for pieces that may or may not have ever contributed for this team…. Or an Odorizzi like pickup for $$$ that has a limited ceiling?
I thought they should've added a SP4-5 this offseason. I'm glad they waited and traded for Kikuchi. He's made them a true contender because anytime they send a SP out on the bump most likely the opposing team isn't going to score more than 2-3 runs off of them in 6 innings. During this run it's been 1-2 runs per 6 innings and with the Stros bullpen they're going to win 70-80% of their games. I wish Dana would've made this deal earlier. But maybe the deal for the guy Dana wanted (Kikuci) wasn't available earlier. Where Dana failed was not picking up a bat at the deadline. But like everything else in life it's better to be lucky than good and Dana got very lucky that Gamel became available. Look at the record since Dana was able to add Gamel and Kikuchi. Adding that extra bat really has made a difference as well as giving Caratini more playing time.
I kind of agree with this but coming out of ST, Garcia and McCullers were always iffy on being able to pitch this year. I had 0 faith in McCullers and only thought Garcia might be ready by this time of the year. Also, Verlander and France were already hurting and looking at delays to their seasons. I said at that time we probably could stand another major injury but not two (which is what we got). I thought adding 1 more pitcher at that point was needed. Going into ST I would have agreed with you.
To me the bottom line is Will Wagner still in this organization or not impacts the chances of the 2024 Astros making the playoffs 0% Him being in the organization after 2024 1% or less. He simply wasn't going to be called up before Dezenzo or Whitcomb. No chance he didn't stay in AAA all year. The only reason he is in the MLB is because he joined a team that traded away players who would have kept him in the minors, and they don't care about winning. And, as for next year, he does not have the upside to actually be given a realistic Chance at winning a starting spot so he doesn't even matter. Trade him or keep him makes no difference to how the Astros perform IMO.
The only guy I counted on coming out of ST was Javier and thought they needed to add a pitcher at that time. The Stros are actually run better than the Dodgers when considering the differences in payroll flexibility and budgets.
This is why I'm happy with the deal, even though I wish they would've given Wagner a chance at 1B before trading him.
You're correct but that doesn't make you right. Wagner could've been a very valuable piece at 1B if Dana had given him a chance. He had the most MLB ready bat in the Stros org.
Clearly we have different opinions of Wagner's bat. I simply don't see enough power, especially at 1b to make him even an average MLB bat there. But I have no doubt he would have a higher AVG than any of the players who have played there ( except Diaz) But the options are currently underwhelming so I understand fans being excited about him. Regardless, I think he would have rotted in AAA while Brown would continue to promote other players with "power potential" over him. Like I said, I see him as Luis Arraez - a .300 hitter who is so weak in power stats and defense that he doesn't break 1.0 WAR in a full season. Let's see what happens in the next 4-5 years. My bet is he is no longer on an MLB roster opening day 2029. Possibly way sooner.
Arraez would've been an upgrade over what they've got over there right now. Wagner will always have a spot on a roster if he continues to hit like he has throughout his career in the minors. At the very least he will be a valuable utility guy. BTW, What did his walk rates/OBP look like in the minors? I believe in Click's ability to judge talent. With that said if the Stros go on a run and win a WS they won the trade. Even if they dont win a WS but are able to bring Kikuchi back for 3-4 years they won the trade if Kikuchi continues to pitch like he has since he joined the Stros. Which outcome do you think is most likely. I'm pretty sure I know your answer because of the way you view Wagner.
Wagner's metrics that show why he is getting lucky and not a viable MLB hitter. 1) .383 BABIP. MLB average is. 290 2) 3.3% BB rate. MLB avg is 8.2% 3) 53.1% ground ball rate. MLB avg is 41.9% 4) 14.3% flyball rate. MLV avg is 26.4% 5) .345 BA but .320 xBA 6) .552 SLG but .502 xSLG 7) .392 wOBA but .364 xwOBA. 8) -1 OAA at 2b in 15g. Over 150g that would make him the 2nd worst 2b in MLB. 9) takes an extra base when the opportunity is there 25%. MLB average is 43% (33rd percentile speed) Every measurement shows that his hitting results are better than they should be based on his batted balls. He can't run and can't field. In another month, his hitting will equal out and show that he is just a JAG.
I said this in another thread, but wanted to see how much he's changed. Best guess (more sliders) was right, but not exactly how I expected. His fastball % hasn't gone down much as he's just ditched the curveball. Changeup has stayed pretty similar overall going up and down based on game. As he's no longer throwing his curve, protecting it with high fastballs isn't as important. He still throws middle middle fastballs more than I like, but it looks like he's gone both up and down more often. Pre-Astros Fastballs Astros Fastballs
The changes the Astros recommend to newly acquired pitchers seems to be "keep it simple stupid". Stop throwing your least successful pitch.
I believe in throwing less successful pitches less often, but this doesn't appear to be what the Astros asked from Kikuchi or at least hasn't been the biggest change. The change has been that the Astros want to see him throw his slider a lot more forcing the batter to play the "is it a slider or a fastball game", ditch the curve which was an effective pitch for more sliders (also an effective pitch), and use the fastball in more locations which allows the slider to hide it more often. So far, increasing his best pitch, has made his worst pitch more effective.
