Of the big names traded, Yusei is prolly pitching the best (albeit very small sample size) Yusei: 3 starts, 16.2 innings, 2.70era, 12.96 k/9, avg game score: 60 Jack Flaherty: 2 starts, 11.2 innings, 3.09era, 13.11 k/9, avg game score: 55 Erick Fedde: 3 starts, 16 ip, 5.63 era, 6.75 k/9, avg game score: 44 Gotta be happy with that.
The trade clearly looks good so far. But we won’t be able to truly judge the outcome for several years. Of course, if Houston wins the World Series with Kikuchi pitching well, at that point it’ll be nigh impossible for Houston to “lose” the trade. Regardless, at the time, the trade was an overpay relative to any “on-paper” analysis. Houston’s confidence that Kikuchi would improve after they got him and their expectation that none of the guys they gave up will become stars explains why they “overpaid”, but it still remains to be seen if that was a correct evaluation.
Sheds a light on how fans may evaluate/view certain prospects/assets and how teams/GM/front offices do. Obviously nobody is perfect otherwise you'd never see a Bagwell for Larry Anderson... or a Yordan for Josh Fields... but at the same time, especially with the internet, fans tend to overvalue certain prospects (or the projectability of prospects) constantly. Astros fans should be very used to these sorts of deals after JV, Cole, Greinke all saw them jettisoning some very high quality (and some very high potential ceiling) guys... and to this day, have any of these guys even made an all-star team, let alone being on a major league team? (I can't recall if Musgrove made an all star team... he certainly gets paid like he has). The Astros very well may have sold high on Loperfido/Wagner/Bloss. After their internal evaluations, they may have had no issues offering more in the trade simply to get the deal done... because they had a strong feeling what the ceiling on these players would be and at the very least, would be giving up equal to what they're potentially getting. The Astros also did their homework on Kikuchi. He was their main target... and as we know, sometimes we'll all do what it takes to secure that target if the deal is close. I also don't think anybody ever truly 'loses' a trade unless we're talking about somebody that ends up having a HOF-type career. Those guys don't grow on trees. If they're just future major league players... well... those should be able to be replaced via the next draft or couple of drafts (in terms of satisfying the "on paper" analysis that you felt was still sounds in this trade judgement).
I wasn't totally against signing Abreu, but fet uncomfortable with giving him 3 years at 37 years old.
Houston has traded away some pretty good players over the years: Musgrove, Hader, Teoscar, Wilyer Abreu, Josh Rojas, and a few others have each accounted for tens of millions of dollars in surplus value after being traded away; that’s value Houston has had to make up for in other ways (Crane’s pocketbook, mostly). That said, I agree with your point that the only way to truly “lose” a trade is to give away a true star level player. I wouldn’t set that bar at the hall of fame, but it is still pretty high. I think had Houston included Springer, Correa, Bregman, Framber, or Tucker in a trade when they were prospects, if would have had a pretty dramatic impact on Houston’s fortunes, and none of those guys are likely to make the Hall. I do think there’s a cumulative effect of continually trading away prospects who become just solid major leaguers, but that impact can be overcome with good scouting/development and free agent spending, something Houston has been able to do the last 5-7 years.
Wagner is someone that a team like the Astros is comfortable trading because he isn't going to be a superstar or Hall of Famer. What is his top 1% outcome? Luis Arraez.
Sure. But that doesn’t make those deals “bad” either. Those guys would have taken more time to develop at the expense of winning when a team needs to win. the goal is to win now and later… and you make the safest but still aggressive moves to get there when you have a window. it’s also about trading the “right guys” and hanging on to the ones you like. For much of this era, whoever the gm is has seemingly done that very well. those preferential to prospect following, or have more interest in the minor league development, will always be that way… even if it’s at the behest of watching teams with true championship windows make moves to further that window.
Touché… AND YET: He hits a key HR in a low scoring winner take all wild card game that leads to the young core gaining confidence that eventually culminates in a 2017 WS. Provided some future guidance for Luhnow on possibly how not to lose a future trade (and he goes on to win the JV, Cole, Greinke trades) (Presuming the biggest loss is Josh Hader’s earlier years) Ryan Pressly eventually is acquired and turns into the best Astros post-season closer of all-time. Had to also suffer through a Ken Giles year… which led to needing to get Osuna… which put a further negative radar on the team from media that eventually led to coercing a whistle-blower in Mike Fiers to come forward… See? Didn’t lose the trade!
The thing that sure seems true is that we have an organization that can immediately improve guys with great stuff by changing the ratio of which pitches guys throw and that immediately changing how effective they are. Pitchers even as talented as JV and Cole. Being confident in that ability and knowing no one else can do it drastically changes the value of the pitchers they target compared to any on-paper analysis. What's wild is all of us, that see them do this time and time again still b**** constantly about paying too much for a trade. I know it was mentioned in another thread or two...but its unbelievable we have two pitching coaches that might be the two best in the whole sport. I mean we literally have an entire World Series quality starting staff on the IL for most of the year and still have one of the best pitching staffs anyways. That is not a miracle. That is because we have the best pitching dev org and the ability to scout MLB inefficiencies better than anyone. If I was a GM I would pay Murphy or Miller whatever to break this up if nothing else just to kill whatever magic my opponent seems to have.
