That's the problem we don't know. However tellitlikeitis, if you like this deal then I guess I will go with your option on it because you forgot more about about baseball than I I will ever know. What do YOU think about the deal? Do you think giving up Appel and VV were too much?
Over the past 10 seasons in the American League, starters have finished the season with a sub-3.00 ERA 37 times, less than 4 times per year. You really think that VV and Appel are going to be half of that number every year?
Vince and Appel being the headline pitchers is fine with me. The Astros can make deals like this because that's one of the perks of having a strong farm system. Give up premium minor league talent (and throw in a lottery ticket or two) for legit major league talent. The Astros also got a promising lottery ticket back, so I like the return. Also, it's not as if the system is suddenly bereft of pitching prospects. Closers who still have years of team control don't come cheap, so it would be reasonable to expect the Astros to give up a fair amount of talent, methinks... As Nick has already said, Vince Velasquez has shown promise but is far from a sure thing. He also has to show that he can stay healthy, which has not been the case for much of his career. Mark Appel is a top 100 prospect solely based on his draft position. Yes, he has elite stuff, but that stuff hasn't translated into on-field results. At this point, he's not a massive loss. Both of them have front-of-the-rotation potential, but they have significant obstacles to overcome in order to reach that potential. Brett Oberholtzer will be of some use for the Phillies as a #4/5 starter this season. The Astros have an excess of those types in the system, especially in the upper minors, so he was redundant. Thomas Eshelman will probably move quickly thanks to his outstanding control and command. He's probably someone I'll fret over losing more than Appel. But, 2016 will be his first full season in the minors, so how quickly he'll actually move is an unknown. Harold Arauz has some promise, but is largely an unknown.
Despite all the doubters, Mark Appel confident in his abilities Mr. Nice Guy: Mark Appel starts anew with Phillies
