Lots of great, lock down closers didn't have the lowest ERA in their first 100 innings of a career. So what? Feliz, VV, and Appel are all as talented as Giles.
Sure, but there have been hundreds of guys with "a lot of talent" that never panned out--and way way more that never became amazing. Giles, it just so happens, has already shown that he can be amazing at the ML level. Does it guarantee that he'll be a HOF closer immediately? No, but we can have a TON more confidence that, starting a season in which we expect to be contending, we have someone back there who is likely to be a stud closer. Instead of hoping that Feliz/VV/Appel transition from starter to closer AND reach their stud potential in the majors by April.
Lots of heralded/highly drafted starting pitchers excel in the minors only to struggle once they start facing better hitters at the MLB level. (and that's ignoring the fact that Appel didn't excel in the minors... none of the Astros players truly excelled in the majors yet.... and Giles has been dominant both in the minors as well as the majors, which makes your contention that they're all just as "talented" look simply like made-up BS).
Those aren't my contentions, they're the contentions of most every prospect list the last several years. Made up BS huh Nick? Sounds like something right up your alley.
You're claiming they're just as talented based on prospect lists... which are largely based on, in Appel's case, where they were drafted? I'm using actual tangible minor/major league results. Shouldn't have to explain the difference to you... luckily GM's understand the difference between actual talent and supposed talent based on prospect lists.
Appel has been terrible in his minor league career, yet people are acting as if we just traded Sandy Koufax. I'm sure MLB hitters will be easier to get out than minor league hitters.
But he's just as talented as guys with the lowest ERA in MLB history over 100 innings.... because "prospect lists" says so!
This might make sense if players never improved. It's embarrassing how quick some of you are to drink the kool-aid on anything Luhnow does without any critical analysis at all.
Appel was supposed to be a close to finished product with 3 plus pitches coming out of college, and he's already 24 years old. Most likely he's already peaked and the chances of him making a turnaround are pretty low.
Most people were criticizing Luhnow for picking Appel because he's been terrible, it's his biggest misfire to date. Now that we've traded him, people are in love with him. Most of us haven't felt great about Appel in a while, our opinions haven't changed. God he sucks, Luhnow was an idiot for picking him... what do you mean we traded him, he's awesome.
The only reason I'm upset is because I thought Appel was going to be a key piece in a trade to Milwaukee for Lucroy.
Luhnow blew the Appel pick. And now its becoming even more well known that the MLB draft is a crapshoot... which sort of makes all that losing/suffering simply to ensure getting the #1 pick possibly not that critical, and wasn't the biggest factor in getting this team back to prominence. Trust me, nobody is drinking kool-aid based on anything other than how this team is currently doing at the MLB level (good), how the minor league system has performed (highly ranked... based on your favorite prospect lists), and how the front office is turning prospects and unknown potential into tangible/proven MLB players.
The way Appel has played in the minors for the Astros organization combined with the perception from the fans, it was best they moved on. Plus, throughout the year people were wondering WTF was going on, and now this trade, and people all of a sudden want Appel and his greatness? Giles helps more now and IMO solidifies the bullpen, he helps more in the next 5 years as well.
but you also have to admit that the concept of freaking out about luhnow trading away unproven prospects who he himself evaluated and acquired in the first place is also a little wacky, no?
Damn near every baseball mind worth listening to thinks Fisher is a better prospect than Appel at this point. It's understandable to be upset that Appel sucks, but that is like 18 months in the making. I know some of you posters just discovered we had a baseball team in Houston in September, but there's no need to freak out now. Appel is baseball's Garrett Gilbert - has all the physical tools and just can't get it mentally. He has the minor league statistics worthy of a "throw-in" and that's how he should be viewed in this trade. He was never going to be the centerpiece of a deal for a player you wanted. He was never going to anchor a rotation for us. We got the Phillies to sub out a more talented player for a bigger name. FIRE LUHNOW!! I was initially shocked by the insane, seemingly uniform hatred of the trade on this forum. But then I paid more attention and realized 85% of the handwringing was done by vince. Let out a big sigh of relief after I realized that our fanbase hadn't gone crazy. Bottom line: if you liked the trade yesterday, there is absolutely no reason you should like it less today from a "talent lost" perspective.
I can understand if you don't like it as a long-term bet. There is a good chance that 1 or more of those guys pans out, and overall the trade might look net negative in the long run. However, that ignores the fact that for this upcoming year, we don't have the luxury of waiting to see who does well. We needed to shore up the pen (and rest of the roster) by April. And there's no way any of those prospects was going to be a proven closer by then...and likely even by June/July. Because on a team trying to win consistently, you wouldn't shove Appel or Velasquez in at the end of the game very often when you have Neshek/Sipp/Gregerson to do it for you.
