That is true, but I also see command as being much more volatile than stuff, meaning more risk of regression next season. JV is a unique case for sure.
I have not done any looking into this, but I would think that the aging curve tends to flatten a bit after a pitcher’s late 30s. My guess is that if a guy can be effective at 37,38,39 then he is likely to continue to be able to be effective into his early 40s (if he wants to). There’s probably not a large enough sample on that to draw conclusions.
Verlander lives by rule 76 apparently. He wants to pitch as much as possible. There were reports a while back that said Verlander’s elbow was at times extremely sore in the beginning of the year but he just kept taking the bump every 5/6 days. He’s truly a marvel, not only from a talent standpoint but also tenacity.
For all the b****ing about Mancini needing to play over Gurriel: Last 30 days: Gurriel: .282 BA, .693 OPS Mancini: .205 BA, .675 OPS Gurriel is hitting more consistently with no power; Mancini is not hitting very much, but more power when he does. Last 15 days, Yuli has actually been substantially better than Mancini. (.719 vs .567 OPS).
That would make sense. Probably relatively flat and then one day the guy either gets and that's that with no way to really know with confidence when that will happen.
A 30-day sample size isn't exactly the best barometer, especially when you factor in Mancini coming to a new team and not getting the opportunity to start every day. Over the course of the entire season, Mancini has pretty substantially outperformed Yuli by a wide margin. And the numbers the rest of the season would likely bear that out. I love Yuli, but he's got not pop left in his swing. Mancini may be streaky, but he's unquestionably the better, more dangerous hitter at this point in their careers. And it's worth noting that you can pick any sample size you want to try and prove your point. If I just look at the month of August (which is the entirety of Mancini's time in Houston), his OPS is .700 compared to Yuli's .627. Despite having 22 fewer at bats in that time, he's had more extra base hits and RBIs, and that's with him batting only .204—a number that will almost certainly increase.
not exactly much of a barometer, when mancini clearly doesn't play as consistently as he should and still adjusting to a new team. Yuli's been here all year and all this time. Mancini was traded here less than 3 weeks ago
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the .182 BABIP that Mancini has with us will move back towards his career norm....and he still has a higher OPS than Yuli without it so far.
Interesting, given how so much of the general complaining here is based on 1 or 2 day sample sizes. "He a HR yesterday and now he's on the bench today?!"
I mean those of us that have been keeping up with mancini prior to him becoming an astro know he should be playing much more. I'm not going to speak for others but I definitely haven't been operating on some 1 or 2 days sample size
Other people making rash opinions does not excuse rash opinions. I should add the caveats unless there is an underlying reason such as an injury (bat speed slowed) and that this doesn't apply to relief pitchers.
There are fans that understand statistical reliability and there are fans that don't. Once thing i've discovered is that it's absolutely pointless trying to move, through explanation, someone from the latter category to the former category.
I will say I can bounce between using stats with a reliable sample size and stats without for the purposes of hyperbole, comedy, mirror someone else's stat usage, or if there is something that might actually be a change. Though, usually larger sample sizes support the same conclusion as a weird small sample size that I may use. On how the Astros position players are used: 1) Projections tend to rate Mancini favorably to very favorably to Gurriel. Gurriel does not look close to the player he was to my eyes. 2) Chas has been great the past 2 years for which he has about a season's worth of PAs. With Brantley down and Meyers ineffective, it appears absolutely crazy to me that he hasn't been a full-time starter in either LF or CF depending on whether Dusty wants defense or offense since Brantley went to the IL. I will say Meyers's swings yesterday looked a lot better to me than he has lately. It had looked like he had a governor on. If he goes on a hot steak soon, I'd be more inclined to think it was real even if it is smaller than a 15 or 30-game sample provided the hot streak is based on hard hits and not luck.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/albert-pujols-is-enjoying-a-renaissance/ Very interesting Highest wRC+ vs left handed pitching leaderboard. Tuve at 4th. Cool. Chazzy Fizz at 6th?!? Two Rangers in the top ten? 42 y/o Pujols 3rd?!?
Meyer's performance the past few days has been intriguing, especially since it's come against some fantastic pitching. I'm bought in on the plan of just running him out there every game and praying that he figures it out in time for the post-season. If he can just get back to being an average hitter then you could start he and Chas in the OF and have an extraordinarily tough defensive OF to play against.
It may come off as hypocritical, but I'd be fine seeing Meyers play nearly everyday with the caveats that he's swinging hard, Chas is playing everyday, and Diaz is on IL or banged up.
