My problem with that is I have never seen lance as an Ace. In his best year I had him as a #2. He is inefficient, seldom gets out of the 5th inning and injury prone. The Astros let Correa walk for less. If he comes up this year I think Lance is a long reliever or possibly an opener. Our current long reliever has an ERA of 1 and a whip of 0.85. I would still take McCullers over him based on experience but statistically Martinez has been very good.
He seems to have the Nolan Ryan/Roger Clemens trajectory. I don't think it would be a bad move if he is the final piece.
If that happens all we can do is say fare thee well. I think I prefer to assume he is back till there is reason to think he is not. No sense worrying over un-spilt milk.
It really is amazing how many arms Houston has that have elite “stuff”. JV, Framber, Javier, Maton, Stanek, Abreu, Montero, Neris, Pressly, and McCullers all have at least one elite pitch or a complementary arsenal that makes their overall profile elite. I wouldn’t necessarily argue if someone said Garcia should be added to that list. Odo and Urquidy don’t really have elite stuff but obviously both guys have shown they can be pretty effective. This probably isn’t the most top-heavy staff Houston has ever had, but in terms of depth and total production it might be the best ever.
I don't think money is the top motivator for JV After all his wife makes more than he does, LOL. Obviously it's a factor but he wants 300 wins that means being on a team that continuously gives him the chance to win. He also has a recent uptick in stabity and family priority with "newish" marriage and child. I also feel he does not want to be viewed as a mercenary who went team to team to win and/or get 300 wins. All this boils down to the Astros having the best chance to keep Jim. He puts in his work without supervision. I say give him the Clemens treatment. Allow him to stay home from road trips when he isn't scheduled to pitch and join team the day before and go home after if he does. Give him a contract similar in structure to current one with a raise- say $30-35 mil per.
I do think he'll want to top Cole's AAV which is why I think $37M is the number. His 2020 Contract was $1M higher than the highest Pitcher AAV at the time. I don't think he gives us a discount, but he will talk to us if we compete.
My ballpark for Verlanders next contract for now is something like $75M/2yr plus a $40M vesting/team 3rd yr option with a $15M player option if it doesn’t vest. Guarantees $90M/3yr with a $115M/3yr ceiling. Might even need some incentives to get him a chance to match Scherzers $130M/3yr deal.
Do the Astros do that with there young pitching. I think there is some motivation to get Brown up here at one point to see if its worth letting JV go. Obviously if Crane is willing to spend, let's make it work. I just have my doubts. It seems like the team and management in general has things very planned out. Does Scherzer's deal throw a wrinkle in that plan? it might have.
Hell yeah they do it. You pay Cy Young contenders pretty much anything they want as long as it's short term. You keep giving him his 1 plus 1 as long as he wants. The worst that can happen is that we pay for 1 old age year and his drop won't be bad as long as he doesn't get reinjured.
Yeah I generally really like McCullers and his stuff is terrific when he's healthy but as you said even when he's out there he doesn't pitch all that smartly to begin with. Hopefully he matures as a pitcher so he can go deeper in games
If that’s the contract you swallow hard and do it, imo, if you are the Astros. If they let him walk I’m ok with that if that money is instead used for extensions. Tucker- 6/150- that buys out what’s likely to be $50 million in arbitration and then 3 FA years for 100 million. That’s a good deal. I think that has him hitting FA at 30. Javier- 6/125. That buys out 3 years of arbitration and 3 years of FA. His arbitration number is likely something like 3.5/8.5/15. So that’s 3/100 in his prime FA years. Framber- 5/130. Buys out 2 arbs and 3 FA years. Peña- 10/150. That makes him an Astro for like as he’s 25 right now. It’s a bet on him but I think worth it. Meyers- 7/70. Make him say no to guaranteed lifetime money. If he’s a 3 or 4 WAR guy for his prime that is a screaming bargain. Altuve- 3 years 60 million. Tell him you love him and want him to be an Astro forever- let’s take care of this now and lower his AAV for the late prime years to help put a contender around him. I think that would take him up to what- 38 years old? No contract for Yuli or Brantley. No extension offer for anyone in the bullpen, Urquidy. Obviously you can’t do all of those extensions. Those would be my offers though.
Cool, I'll put the spicy one on a pork butt or ribs I've got a gut full of bbq right now and it'll take me a week or 3 to think about smoked meats again.
I think Verlander is here as long as he is willing for at least 2-3 more years. That will allow the use of Garcia and/or Urquidy to bring in a veteran to replace Yuli or Brantley. FYI I want Yuli back just at a reduced role but a 1B with 30HR/100 RBI production
We have reached 50 wins through 77 games. On pace for 105. It sucks when we go through spells where we can’t hit, but this team is crazy good.
Funny how things change month to month. Looking at how great the team is playing right now it’s hard not to want to bring everybody back for another season if everything keeps going this way. Brantley is posting the highest xwOBA of his career and Gurriel has righted the ship to the point where he’s roughly a league average bat. JV is throwing like an ace. Assuming Brantley and Gurriel are willing to give a slight discount to stay in Houston I could see it making sense to bring them all back. Brantley $40M/3yr Gurriel $4M/1yr with incentives plus a vesting $6M player option Verlander $70M/2yr plus incentives and a vesting 3rd yr with a lesser 3rd yr player option if it doesn’t vest That would probably put them close to the luxury threshold but they could do it.
I'd be OK bringing Yuli back under the agreement that he wasn't the everyday 1B any more. I don't even like him as the everyday 1B now, but between the likely competitive market, defense and his popularity in the locker room, hanging with him may be the wise choice as long as he remains at least average offensively. However we should be getting a lot more production from that position. I wouldn't be opposed to Brantley either, but I would rather we get younger and more flexible next to Yordan. Somebody who can also play 1B and/or RF instead of being a pure LF/DH.
That feels like way too much to me for Brantley and it blocks Leon as well. I’d be very concerned about giving him that much money and 3 years with any kind of health problems blowing the deal up. His defense isn’t great now (it isn’t bad) but will likely be borderline unplayable by the end of that deal, and he just doesn’t do XBH anymore. I wonder if he would be willing to/capable of playing 1B. If there was another defensive position for him that mitigates the risk some of him becoming unplayable in the OF. 1/10 would be the biggest number I’d feel real comfortable with. I’d do that deal with Yuli in a heartbeat. Especially if he was ok with being a part time player. I can’t imagine him being a bad clubhouse guy at all, but I’d want to be up front with him about it for sure. The JV deal is a no brainer. You do that every day if he makes it to the finish line this year healthy. Id probably have my attorneys draw up a 2/70 with the option right now and send it to him at the ASB. If we offer now mid season we should be able to get a discount bs the end of the season.
