Astros have the next 4 Thursdays off. Astros also have 18 straight vs teams in last or next to last in their division at the moment (all below .500). Need to fatten up now… after those 18, 15 straight vs teams in 1st or 2nd in their divisions (all above .500). Looking even further ahead, after the all star break, and after the Yankee DH, ‘stros have 23 games straight against teams currently under .500…although, I have a feeling Boston won’t be part of that group by the time we play them again.
Astros are going to be buyers at the deadline and are in quite a predicament. Starting pitchers- Verlander McCullers Valdez Garcia Javier Odorizzi Urquidy Banging down the front door- Hunter Brown Maybe later this year- Forrest Whitley They need to make a trade for a young bat they can extend.
Its possible. Would have to be an "older" free agent to be (30-31) who would be looking for a 5 year deal. Sometimes a player just falls in love with the city he was traded to (and the city loves them). Saw it first-hand in St. Louis twice (McGwire, Rolen). Could've seen it in Houston with Randy Johnson and Beltran... but at least JV was able to be extended (even though he wasn't a pending FA at acquisition).
But who? The only “extendable” good young position players likely to be available are CF (Reynolds and Mullins). So they’re just gonna give up on Meyers? Unless there’s an elite elite player available (read: Juan Soto), I don’t see how they can add on the position player side. A versatile left handed young bat who can play catcher makes sense, but Daulton Varsho and MJ Melendez are the only 2 guys on selling teams that fit that description and it’s really hard to see them being made available for anything approaching a reasonable price. For now I think we are going to see a trade for an elite reliever to upgrade from Taylor and that’s likely it. Injuries and workload management are likely to mitigate the risk of having too many starters. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a buy/sell trade similar to the Straw deal last year, where Houston trades a good young player for a combination of both short and long term assets.
Don't assume perfect health especially with pitchers. Bench is still light even after getting Dubon, but I wouldn't make a major trade for a name that may still be worse than Chas or Yuli...
Barring injury... I see a trade for a reliever and MAYBE a rental bat. A significant move for a cost controlled player would be much more of a necessity in the offseason. Astros roster is likely going to be worse next year unless another rookie or 2 of guys like Brown, Matijevic, and Leon step up big. Would be a nice time for Crane to step up the payroll significantly... This same exact roster as this year would cost north of 50 million more next season. Arbitration for Alvarez, Tucker, Javier, Framber, Stanek, Maton, Taylor, and Urquidy. This will add somewhere between 20-30 million in additional payroll. 17.5 million dollar raise for Bregman in actual dollars... AAV for lux tax stays the same significant raise to resign Montero if he continues to pitch well HUGE raise to bring Verlander back if he continues pitching anywhere to close to what he is doing now cost to resign/replace Brantley, Castro, Diaz, and Yuli? 4 million dollar raise to Pressly wipes out Diaz coming off the books by itself dead money to Baez of 2 million for his buyout possibly more dead money if Odorizzi takes his buyout which could be 3.25 million or 6.25 million depending on incentives reached As much as we b**** about this roster... it would require a Yankee like payroll to keep it next year.
Honestly I would assume (and be just fine with it) that we won’t be bringing back Brantley, Castro and Diaz, and I’d move on from Yuli (at least as a starter) if I was running things. If he wants to sign for another $5 million extension or something like that cool, but he’d in an ideal world be a utility guy, failing that the RH portion of a platoon. OF of Tucker, Meyers and 2 of Leon, Siri and Chaz should put up something like 13-15 War and cost about $12,000,000 total. Yordan at 10 at DH and then 5 million total for catcher with Lee taking over. That’s roughly 30,000,000 and then 60 for Altuve and Bregman and Peña to make 90 and all you’ve got to deal with is 1B. I think ODO moves on by mutual consent if he keeps it up, JV signs for something like 35 or 40 million. He, LMJ and Framber should fit for 60 or so. You’ve got Urquidy, Garcia, Javier, a brown and Whitley (and Solomon and Bielak) making minimum wage, so really that’s 150 for everything other than 1B and bullpen. It feels like we are spending way too much money on the bullpen in my opinion when you have 9 guys I truly believe could be no worse than 4 type starters on a playoff level team, but it is what it is and I’m not going to argue that point anymore. I’d say if we were interested in going up to the tax line we could comfortably pay 30,000,000 a year for the right guy/guys at LF or 1B. If we signed a big money LF I’d give Chaz a 1B glove along with Leon and tell them to figure it out. I truly believe Brad Pitt is correct and anyone can play 1B. That’s me assuming the bullpen can be brought in for $40,000,000. If it can’t with all the arms in the org you are truly doing it wrong. It’s crazy to me that as gutsy as we’ve been in just letting dudes walk that play 162 games a year we don’t have the balls to promote from within as much in the bullpen and go sign guys to not insignificant money or trade prospects for them. It will be a fascinating off season.
I think they make an effort to resign Brantley at a lower figure. Tucker/Meyers/(Leon, Siri, Chaz) does not strike fear into the hearts of anyone. 13-15 fWAR is super generous for an outfield with 1 established starter. That's basically saying the outfield would average out to 3 borderline all-stars. I'd say 9-11 fWAR is a much more realistic range for that grouping. I agree, Castro and Diaz are probably gone. Castro to retirement and Diaz to FA with Dubon slotting in. It's an overall weaker IF bench but oh well, can't spend everywhere. This is pure speculation, but I'm not sure Verlander is gonna demand a big raise. He might take that $25m player option. He seems to buy in heavily to the Astros' organizational culture and values and understands that the Astros will likely be contenders for the near future. My assumption is that he knows the possibility of switching teams at age 40 injects a lot of uncertainty to this stage of his career (e.g. his quest for 300 wins). Plus he (might) feel bad he made $50m for 1 start. Re: the bullpen. I look at it completely the other way. If the Astros development team thinks their internal bullpen options aren't able/ready, then I trust them 100%. This is the development team that gave a ton of rope to some young pitchers (Framber/Javier/Garcia/Urquidy), so they know talent evaluation. Bullpen pieces are among the cheapest/easiest to pick up at the trade deadline. If that's where the club has to spend their trade capital (instead of position players or starting pitching), then the club has done a fantastic job of development and talent evaluation. It also doesn't hurt that those bullpen acquisitions work out more often than not.
Why not sign Roberto Osuna seems like he is healthy again. Could use another arm in the pen. Won't really cost anything
Other than a lefty specialist (not necessarily a LHP), I don't see the bullpen as a weakness. I am quickly becoming a fan of Seth Martinez as a reliable reliever. Others have occasional lapses, but are generally good. This is not too different from every other spot on the roster including SP and Position players. As to an earlier comment about anyone being able to play 1B, it is true. But it is also true for every position. But you want good play. not just amateur hour which some people think is fine as long as they hit a little. Two keys to the Astros run of success is emphasis on getting on base by any means and Defense. Teams that focus only on Hitting or only on Pitching have their moments, but they quickly slide back to obscurity.
People are writing off Gurriel too soon. He plays a great first base and he worked hard to get in better shape this off-season. I believe his hitting will come around. If we can pick up a better hitting 1b with several years of control then that would be fine, because Yuli is definitely entering the last few years of his career and is a FA, but he is not a problem this year. We should hang onto our pitching unless it is to get a better pitcher with years of control. We only need one or two of our positional prospects (Myers, McCormick, Leon, JJMat, Jones, Lee, Diaz) to pan out and fill in the holes. We can convert virtually anyone of them to 1b or Alvarez. I wouldn’t sell the farm for a super start. We already have Alvarez, Tucker, and Pena as a core.
I wish we did. But none of this future CORE has signed for even 1 year beyond their Free Agency year. Of course Pena being a rookie makes sense, but Alvarez (MVP Sports Group) and Tucker (Excel Sports Mgt.) do not appear to have willing agents for any extension beyond arbitration at rates beyond probable Arbitration awards. I wish it were otherwise.
We still have them locked up through 24, correct. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think we can re-sign both of them, but I get your point. If we traded a huge amount of assets for another position player we would be in the same boat of trying to sign said superstar long-term.
