I would be shocked if Verlander wasn't first ballot. Maybe he loses a few votes and isn't unanimous because of 2017 but otherwise he's basically the best pitcher of the generation. If he keeps pitching to 300 wins it should be unanimous first ballot.
Not being a homer but I strongly believe Bregman is due for a hot streak sooner or later. He had a solid start, and even if he's been popping up too much he's still seeing the ball as well as he always does. He walks more than he strikes out, and he rarely chases stuff way out of the zone.
Because Verlander is a pitcher he is relatively stink free from 2017. At this point he is a first ballot guy. He has had two primes and even though there is some rule breaking with substances, he has avoided the scrutiny that the Astros hitters haven't. The guy that will be tainted is Altuve, who may be the only Hall of Famer on the Astros offensive side. Springer isn't likely and Correa is hurt and post COVID Bregman hasn't been the same. Alvarez is a DH and its way too early with Tucker.
Only way Altuve has a shot is if he somehow changes the game . . . don't see that happening though. He's not McGwire or Bonds . . .and we know how that's gonna turn out. He needs to end career with a stunning barrage of numbers with every Houstonian's fingers crossed. . . . and I'm not sure that's enough. There's always the hope that the method of voting/induction will change too . . . HA!
Alvarez and Tucker both arrived after the trash cans stopped, but, of course, they’ll be guilty by association in the eyes of many.
Some added perspective: He had 1 vote last year, and he's hit 4th 4 times already. At the same time, his WAR is tied for 4th in the league according to BR and 11th for Fangraphs, so he probably should get some consideration for votes. But Altuve, Pena, Yordan, & Verlander would all have better shots at MVP votes right now.
While Alvarez is a GREAT DH, as soon as Brantley retires, he'll move on as starting LF. I'd love to extend Brantley as long as he's still hitting myself. I'd even consider Brantley at DH with Alvarez the Starter in LF.
Steamer projects Tucker finishing 5th in fWAR. ZIps has Tucker finishing 5th. I'd guess he would need to be top 10 in fWAR to get around 15 votes with 10 spots on 30 ballots.
