I’m surprised their record is as good as it is right now with the bats being as cold as they’ve been, the long road trip to start the season, Dusty’s weird lineups and days off, Altuve’s injury, etc. All things considered, things could be much worse.
Ok... moving this here. You wrote the above implying the good teams had catchers that hit well. I'm not going to look up their averages, but the Astros were an excellent team last year. They made it to the World Series. So I responded that the losing team in the WS had a catcher that hit .172. So that clearly proves that a good team can have a catcher that is one of the worst (if not the worst) regularly playing hitter in baseball. You then responded that the key word was "losing". That implies the Astros were only a "good" team if they were the WS winners. You know that's bullshit. Maldonado was not the reason they were shutout twice and scored 2 runs in their other 2 losses. We all know that he has been a terrible hitter who has hit below .175 since being reacquired in 2019. We all know that when the Astros are firing on all cylinders his ineptitude is not as noticeable. We know he is a big help to their young Latino pitchers and guided them the past few years, plus the veteran pitchers love him. Does that offset his woeful hitting? To many fans, no. To the people that matter, (players, coaches, front office) apparently so.
Bats being cold is a league-wide problem...though Astros feeling it a little more than most. Partially it is the ball having less drag. Partially could be more relievers. Partially could also be the pitch com system.
I would say Maldonado has been able to offset hitting with defense and pitcher management in prior years. I'd give it more time, but it is rough with his hitting this year as well as taking it on the chin with the strike zone being much much smaller for Astros pitchers than hitters. Though, what fans, players, coaches, front office think really doesn't matter as opinions don't change what is on the field. Front office and coaches should get some leeway as their opinions are likely more accurate, but they are not infallible.
Fun Fact: The Astros have the worst OPS from the C position in MLB (.325). The team with the 3rd worst (.394) has the best record in baseball.
OPS this season is way, way down right now, .728 to .676 currently. As terrible as our offense feels like it's been, we're only 10 points below league average OPS despite an abysmal .245 BABIP. Our catchers won't be quite this terrible all season.
Which is why he would make a fine backup catcher. But Click signed Castro for that role. The last sentence is correct and that's a big reason for the drop off in performance.
This team considers the catcher spot as, essentially, part of the pitching area. When the team has 8 above league average hitters this does not create any issues. With Altuve, Gurriel and Bregman hitting significantly below their career norms and Springer and Correa gone this becomes an issue. Big picture: the pitching is doing very well despite babying Verlander and injuries to McCullers and Pressly. I think the team is very happy at catcher and any improvements will need to come from somewhere else.
I always felt Javier was more effective and better suited as a starter. We're on a six man rotation now but over the course of a season pitchers will miss time and miss starts, so I hope he'll have the opportunity to start for the rest of the year. If/when McCullers comes back, assuming we don't have an opening in the rotation, I would prefer if Lance comes out the pen this season (rather than Javier), we need to manage his workload and his innings anyway, then next season have him return to the rotation. To me, I don't think Lance has the durability to be a full season starter, the problem is he makes too much money now to be a reliever, but that's next season's problem. This season, have him come out of the pen and throw his curves one or two times through the order.
Lee is not playing well enough to warrant a callup at this point. That could change but for now if Houston wants to upgrade at catcher they’ll probably need to make a trade; Contreras and Barnhart should both be available and I don’t think either of them would be too terribly expensive.
Astros xwOBA is actually higher this year than last year suggesting that the Astros problems hitting are primarily ball doesn't go as far (league-wide issue) and hitting them right at them. On the plus side, the moonshots against Javier are dying on the warning track or even the grass this year. Verlander and Garcia have had some bad luck regarding homers, but I expect they're going to thrive in this environment.
I think the rotation is in very good shape. I also think that keeping a 6 man rotation makes a lot of sense. When Lance returns he will need to be a starter. He has a starters mentality and arsenal but also contract. Unfortunately he has not been able to be durable enough for a regular 32-35 starts 180+ IP that a starter should be. Verlander has had issues, possibly from fatigue, late in the season/post season even before the injury. Javier was wasting away in the bullpen. He is clearly better and more valuable in the rotation. With the risk of injury and expectations, it's very hard to trade away good pitching. The Astros have 7 quality starters not even counting prospects. Keeping a 6 man rotation just makes too much sense.
Over the course of his career, Verlander's numbers have been best in September. His W-L percentage is best. His ERA is best. his Ks are best. His K/BB is best. His WHIP is 2nd best. His OPS+ is best. Clearly he has not generally been as good in the postseason, but he has been excellent throughout his career in the latter part of the season.
Lee is playing better than Castro. Even if Lee's OPS dropped 200 points, he would still be better than either catcher we have, offensively speaking. Lee OPS -.698 Maldy OPS -..357 Castro OPS -.268 Horrid, even for catchers.
Past performance over small samples is not a good predictor of future outcomes. Lee would likely be a better hitter than Maldy and about equal to Castro. But he still wouldn’t be a “good” hitter, even for a catcher. Now, with another 2-3 months of development that might change but I think the best realistic case for Lee is on-balance improvement over the next few months to put him in position to take over (with Maldy as the backup) next season.
Astros OPS rank, by batting order: 1st: 16th 2nd: 18th 3rd: 12th 4th: 3rd 5th: 27th 6th: 7th 7th: 16th 8th: 14th 9th: 29th (only team worse, the Yankees, has the best record in baseball) By position: C: 30th 1B: 26th 2B: 28th 3B: 14th SS: 6th LF: 4th CF: 13th RF: 12th DH: 7th I know OPS is not a perfect stat (that stat doesn't exist) but it's the best one I could find that let me do this particular breakdown.
Lets hope that change happens. But sure, there is more to being ready for the majors than offensive production. But if/when he is solid defensively and if he works well with the pitchers, I would throw him out there asap and release Castro. As far as samples, as always, we only have the stats and samples we have. Castro could go on to hot 40 bombs this year. But I rather doubt it.
